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Travis Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is positive: actual win rate 26.4% beats market-implied 23.4% by +3.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 538% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -16.8% on 85 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +28.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-13.9%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -2.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +3.7%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +23.8% (-20.1% → +3.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +16.1% (-18.4% → -2.4%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$3.25
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-2.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 87 | +$3.25 | +3.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 86 | $-6.75 | -7.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 85 | $-14.25 | -16.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 82 | $-27.75 | -33.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 12 | 16.7% | 5.67 | $-6.90 | -57.5% |
| 2026-05 | 33 | 21.2% | 8.48 | $-10.70 | -32.4% |
| 2026-06 | 31 | 35.5% | 5.99 | +$16.45 | +53.1% |
| 2026-07 | 11 | 27.3% | 8.59 | +$4.40 | +40.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 23 | 43.5% | +$0.25 | +1.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 17 | 41.2% | +$9.00 | +52.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 20 | 20.0% | +$1.50 | +7.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 19 | 10.5% | +$0.50 | +2.6% |
| 15+ | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 17 | 41.2% | +$1.95 | +11.5% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 33.3% | +$2.80 | +31.1% |
| Rank 3 | 8 | 25.0% | +$1.20 | +15.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 6 | 16.7% | $-0.50 | -8.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 15 | 13.3% | +$4.50 | +30.0% |
Based on 55 of 87 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 10 | 20.0% | +$1.00 | +10.0% |
| Outside Zone | 45 | 28.9% | +$8.95 | +19.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 87 | 26.4% | +$3.25 | +3.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 7 | 42.9% | +$6.60 | +94.3% |
| sandown | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.70 | +46.2% |
| casterton | 5 | 40.0% | +$3.30 | +66.0% |
| flemington | 11 | 18.2% | $-0.50 | -4.5% |
| eagle farm | 15 | 6.7% | $-12.95 | -86.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 10 | 20.0% | $-4.30 | -43.0% |
| Sat | 55 | 21.8% | +$1.15 | +2.1% |
| Sun | 22 | 40.9% | +$6.40 | +29.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.30 (+57.5% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-06 | swan hill | Isalot | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | sandown | Afterberna | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | Winnasedge | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | flemington | Dirnaseer | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | Signature Scent | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-31 | sandown | Keane Enuff | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | tamworth | Echelon | 2.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | flemington | Vegas Jack | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | bendigo | Zain Blue | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | geelong | Blue Shield | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.