Travis Noonan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 13.9% trails market-implied 22.4% by -8.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -58.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-37.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -33.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -46.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -22.6% (-24.0% → -46.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -11.7% (-21.8% → -33.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

13.9%

Avg Odds

6.37

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-36.80

ROI

-46.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-33.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

22.4%

Calibration Gap

-8.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	79	$-36.80	-46.6%
Minus best 1 bet	78	$-45.80	-58.7%
Minus best 2 bets	77	$-50.80	-66.0%
Minus best 5 bets	74	$-59.10	-79.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-58.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-37.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	11	9.1%	8.81	$-6.00	-54.5%
2026-08	27	18.5%	5.90	$-6.70	-24.8%
2026-09	25	12.0%	5.78	$-17.70	-70.8%
2026-10	16	12.5%	6.42	$-6.40	-40.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	13	53.8%	+$4.60	+35.4%
3.0-5.0	23	4.3%	$-19.40	-84.3%
5.0-8.0	13	15.4%	$-2.00	-15.4%
8.0-15	24	4.2%	$-14.00	-58.3%
15+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	30	26.7%	$-8.80	-29.3%
Rank 2	11	9.1%	$-6.00	-54.5%
Rank 3	11	9.1%	$-5.00	-45.5%
Rank 4-5	14	0.0%	$-14.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	13	7.7%	$-3.00	-23.1%

Based on 79 of 79 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	14	14.3%	$-3.00	-21.4%
Outside Zone	65	13.8%	$-33.80	-52.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	79	13.9%	$-36.80	-46.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sandown	7	14.3%	+$3.00	+42.9%
caulfield	20	30.0%	$-3.50	-17.5%
casterton	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
rosehill	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
randwick	14	14.3%	$-5.60	-40.0%
flemington	11	0.0%	$-11.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	58	13.8%	$-25.70	-44.3%
Sun	21	14.3%	$-11.10	-52.9%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.77 (-38.5% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-21	sandown	Final Moment	10.00	+$9.00
2026-10-02	randwick	Shraddha	6.00	+$5.00
2026-07-26	wodonga	Brutify	5.00	+$4.00
2026-10-09	caulfield	Pinhole	3.60	+$2.60
2026-08-14	caulfield	Darkbonee	2.70	+$1.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-09	casterton	High Class Roller	8.50	$-1.00
2026-10-02	flemington	Ten Commandments	2.80	$-1.00
2026-08-09	casterton	Hill Cry	8.00	$-1.00
2026-09-05	sandown	Natural Fling	3.20	$-1.00
2026-10-02	murray bridge	Kosaji	2.30	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.