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Travis Noonan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is positive: actual win rate 26.3% beats market-implied 22.5% by +3.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 156% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -9.3% on 74 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -11.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+28.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +4.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +16.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +26.5% (-10.5% → +16.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +15.5% (-11.0% → +4.5%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$12.15
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+4.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
22.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 76 | +$12.15 | +16.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 75 | +$2.15 | +2.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 74 | $-6.85 | -9.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 71 | $-23.35 | -32.9% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 31 | 35.5% | 5.99 | +$16.45 | +53.1% |
| 2026-07 | 22 | 18.2% | 8.70 | $-1.60 | -7.3% |
| 2026-08 | 23 | 21.7% | 6.05 | $-2.70 | -11.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 17 | 52.9% | +$4.65 | +27.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 14 | 28.6% | +$1.50 | +10.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 13 | 30.8% | +$8.50 | +65.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 26 | 11.5% | +$3.50 | +13.5% |
| 15+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 27 | 37.0% | +$0.15 | +0.6% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 44.4% | +$7.80 | +86.7% |
| Rank 3 | 10 | 20.0% | $-0.80 | -8.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 13 | 7.7% | $-7.50 | -57.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 17 | 17.6% | +$12.50 | +73.5% |
Based on 76 of 76 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 13 | 23.1% | +$3.00 | +23.1% |
| Outside Zone | 63 | 27.0% | +$9.15 | +14.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 76 | 26.3% | +$12.15 | +16.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sandown | 8 | 37.5% | +$13.70 | +171.2% |
| caulfield | 16 | 37.5% | +$5.30 | +33.1% |
| casterton | 5 | 20.0% | $-0.60 | -12.0% |
| ballarat | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.80 | -56.0% |
| flemington | 9 | 11.1% | $-3.50 | -38.9% |
| eagle farm | 10 | 10.0% | $-7.95 | -79.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 57 | 22.8% | +$7.15 | +12.5% |
| Sun | 19 | 36.8% | +$5.00 | +26.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.30 (+57.5% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-06 | swan hill | Isalot | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | sandown | Final Moment | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | sandown | Afterberna | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | Winnasedge | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | flemington | Dirnaseer | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-09 | casterton | High Class Roller | 8.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | flemington | Vegas Jack | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | casterton | Hill Cry | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | eagle farm | Within The Law | 2.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | morphettville | Jacaranda | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.