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Betfair Cricket Trader
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.8% vs implied 28.5% (+2.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -31.2%.
Bio & context
NOT a racing tipster. Betfair Cricket Trader (identified as "John M") is a cricket betting analyst who contributes exclusively cricket tips and previews to the Betfair Hub, covering formats including Test matches (particularly The Ashes), ODI, and T20 internationals. Despite appearing in Betfair's roster of contributors alongside racing tipsters, this persona has no public footprint in horse racing, greyhounds, or harness racing analysis.
Australia (Betfair Australia contributor)Cricket betting analyst
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- This tipster does not cover racing — cricket only. May have been included in racing database in error.
Methodology: Provides in-depth cricket previews and analysis for major international matches and tournaments
Specialty: Cricket (all formats: Test, ODI, T20)
Public footprint
- Betfair Hub author page (cricket content only)
- Articles on The Ashes, ODI, T20 cricket betting
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: +6 new bets · ROI: +4.6% (-35.7% → -31.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.0% (-15.8% → -16.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-4.05
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 13 | $-4.05 | -31.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 12 | $-5.35 | -44.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 11 | $-6.65 | -60.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 8 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 2 | 0.0% | 4.50 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-09 | 11 | 36.4% | 4.24 | $-2.05 | -18.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 100.0% | +$4.95 | +123.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 10 | 40.0% | $-1.05 | -10.5% |
Based on 13 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 11 | 36.4% | $-2.05 | -18.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hub_playwright | 8 | 25.0% | $-3.40 | -42.5% |
| payload | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.65 | -13.0% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Thu | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.20 | +120.0% |
| Fri | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Sun | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.15 | +7.5% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-23 | | South Africa | 2.30 | +$1.30 |
| 2026-09-27 | | South Africa | 2.30 | +$1.30 |
| 2026-09-23 | | South Africa for | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-09-26 | | South Africa for | 2.15 | +$1.15 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-20 | | Travis Head | 3.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | | Zimbabwe | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | | Travis Head for | 3.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | | Ben Curran for | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | | Mushfiqur Rahim | 4.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.