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Betfair AFL Model
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 75.0% beats market-implied 64.2% by +10.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 226% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -41.0% on 2 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +16.2%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +56.8% (-40.6% → +16.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.6% (-16.4% → -10.8%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$0.65
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-10.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
64.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 4 | 75.0% | 1.61 | +$0.65 | +16.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$0.65 | +16.2% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 66.7% | $-0.21 | -7.0% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.86 | +86.0% |
Based on 4 of 4 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 4 | 75.0% | +$0.65 | +16.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| betfair_model | 4 | 75.0% | +$0.65 | +16.2% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-09 | | Fremantle | 1.86 | +$0.86 |
| 2026-07-09 | | Hawthorn | 1.61 | +$0.61 |
| 2026-07-12 | | Western Bulldogs | 1.18 | +$0.18 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-11 | | Geelong | 1.78 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.