Jared Timms

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (24 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.7% trails market-implied 26.3% by -9.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 1167% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -81.5% on 22 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +7.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

16.7%

Avg Odds

6.02

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.68

ROI

+7.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.3%

Calibration Gap

-9.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	24	+$1.68	+7.0%
Minus best 1 bet	23	$-9.32	-40.5%
Minus best 2 bets	22	$-17.92	-81.5%
Minus best 5 bets	19	$-19.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-09	16	25.0%	7.35	+$9.68	+60.5%
2026-10	8	0.0%	3.36	$-8.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	8	25.0%	$-3.92	-49.0%
3.0-5.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	5	40.0%	+$16.60	+332.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	11	18.2%	$-6.92	-62.9%
Rank 2	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	6	16.7%	+$3.60	+60.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$10.00	+500.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 24 of 24 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	14.3%	+$2.60	+37.1%
Outside Zone	17	17.6%	$-0.92	-5.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
ladbrokes_blog	24	16.7%	+$1.68	+7.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rosehill	6	33.3%	$-1.92	-32.0%
randwick	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
caulfield	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	16	25.0%	+$9.68	+60.5%
Sun	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-25	mornington	Hurry Curry	12.00	+$11.00
2026-09-26	mornington	Hurry Curry	9.60	+$8.60
2026-09-26	rosehill	Blue Door	2.06	+$1.06
2026-09-25	rosehill	Blue Door	2.02	+$1.02

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-02	randwick	Genesis Runner	2.00	$-1.00
2026-10-02	randwick	Beskar	6.00	$-1.00
2026-09-26	rosehill	Bear On The Loose	18.50	$-1.00
2026-09-27	caulfield	Extragalactic	8.40	$-1.00
2026-09-27	caulfield	Somethings Burnin	8.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.