Ryan Phelan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-22 22:07 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (16 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 50.0% vs implied 51.8% (-1.8pp). Picks track market expectations. 522% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -27.1% on 14 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -8.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +5.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -5.5% (+11.1% → +5.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.9% (-6.6% → -8.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

2.18

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$0.90

ROI

+5.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-8.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

51.8%

Calibration Gap

-1.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	16	+$0.90	+5.6%
Minus best 1 bet	15	$-1.50	-10.0%
Minus best 2 bets	14	$-3.80	-27.1%
Minus best 5 bets	11	$-6.50	-59.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	2	100.0%	2.55	+$3.10	+155.0%
2026-07	2	50.0%	1.52	$-0.30	-15.0%
2026-08	8	37.5%	2.23	$-2.55	-31.9%
2026-09	4	50.0%	2.20	+$0.65	+16.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	8	62.5%	+$0.00	+0.0%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.80	-45.0%
3.0-5.0	4	50.0%	+$2.70	+67.5%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	11	63.6%	+$2.60	+23.6%
Rank 2	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	3	33.3%	+$0.30	+10.0%

Based on 16 of 16 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	16	50.0%	+$0.90	+5.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	16	50.0%	+$0.90	+5.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
shepparton	14	50.0%	+$1.20	+8.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	16	50.0%	+$0.90	+5.6%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.73 (+73.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-01	shepparton	Tara Victory	3.40	+$2.40
2026-06-30	shepparton	Lather In Gold	3.30	+$2.30
2026-08-18	shepparton	Aussie Jay Mac Nz	2.20	+$1.20
2026-06-30	shepparton	The Trawler	1.80	+$0.80
2026-07-07	echuca	Specials Poster	1.70	+$0.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-18	shepparton	Bay Of Fires	1.16	$-1.00
2026-07-07	echuca	Clives Girl	1.35	$-1.00
2026-08-18	shepparton	Delightful Reyna	3.60	$-1.00
2026-08-25	shepparton	So Skeptical	2.50	$-1.00
2026-09-01	shepparton	Bulletproof Kid	1.95	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-22 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.