Ryan Phelan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-08 04:01 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 66.7% beats market-implied 50.8% by +15.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 113% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -12.5% on 4 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -4.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +65.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

66.7%

Avg Odds

2.18

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.90

ROI

+65.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-4.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

50.8%

Calibration Gap

+15.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	4	75.0%	2.51	+$4.20	+105.0%
2026-07	2	50.0%	1.52	$-0.30	-15.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	50.0%	$-0.50	-12.5%
3.0-5.0	2	100.0%	+$4.40	+220.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	66.7%	+$0.50	+16.7%
Rank 2	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$2.30	+230.0%

Based on 6 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	6	66.7%	+$3.90	+65.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	6	66.7%	+$3.90	+65.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	6	66.7%	+$3.90	+65.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-30	shepparton	Lather In Gold	3.30	+$2.30
2026-06-23	shepparton	Major Eastwood	3.10	+$2.10
2026-06-30	shepparton	The Trawler	1.80	+$0.80
2026-07-07	echuca	Specials Poster	1.70	+$0.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-23	shepparton	Very Tempting	1.85	$-1.00
2026-07-07	echuca	Clives Girl	1.35	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-08 04:01 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.