Ryan Phelan

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-06-23 19:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (2 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 43.2% by +6.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +55.0%.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

2.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.10

ROI

+55.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

43.2%

Calibration Gap

+6.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	2	50.0%	2.48	+$1.10	+55.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	1	100.0%	+$2.10	+210.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 2	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%

Based on 2 of 2 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%

By source

(no source data)

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-23	shepparton	Major Eastwood	3.10	+$2.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-23	shepparton	Very Tempting	1.85	$-1.00

Generated 2026-06-23 19:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.