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Ric McIntosh
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-28 08:28 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is positive: actual win rate 35.9% beats market-implied 32.5% by +3.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 51% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +11.3% on 143 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +11.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+31.8%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +13.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +22.5%.
Bio & context
Ric McIntosh is a Victorian country race caller who provides tips as a secondary activity to his primary calling work. Based in Bendigo, he has been calling races since the 1990s and works for RSN Racing and Racing.com, particularly known for his colourful jumps racing calls and coverage of Victorian country meets. He owns racehorses, which represents a clear conflict of interest in his tipping activities.
Bendigo, VictoriaRace caller (RSN Racing, Racing.com) who also provides racing tips25 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- OWNS RACEHORSES - Active owner with purchases at yearling sales. Must monitor tips for any horses he owns or co-owns.
- Close personal relationships with Victorian country trainers through decades of calling - potential bias toward familiar connections.
- Racing.com employee tipping on races he may be calling - institutional conflicts possible.
- Partnership with Ross Smith in horse ownership since at least 2024.
Methodology: Form-based analysis from his race calling experience and trackside observations. Tips published through TheGreatTipOff aggregator and RSN Racing.
Specialty: Victorian country racing, particularly jumps racing; focus on regional Victorian tracks including Warrnambool, Bendigo, Hamilton, Horsham, Mildura
Public footprint
- Twitter: @ricmacracing (4,845 followers as of March 2013 join date)
- Regular RSN Racing tips contributor
- Tips tracked on TheGreatTipOff.com since December 5, 2009 (6,779+ tips published)
- Podcast appearances including 'Sport & Life with Sam Kekovich' (May 2022)
- Known for catchphrases like 'back Weir, drink beer'
- Featured in g1x.com.au racing interviews
Horse ownership / breeding
- Owns racehorses - confirmed owner of Kerzner (purchased for $18,000 at 2024 Capricornia Yearling Sale, won 2YO Classic at $201 odds in April 2025)
- Part of ownership group with Ross Smith (Bendigo businessman who funded McIntosh's laser eye surgery in 2000)
Industry connections
- Ross Smith (Bendigo businessman, co-owner)
- Liam Birchley (Queensland trainer)
- Victorian country racing community (30+ year relationships)
- Former Warrnambool May Carnival ambassador
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff shows various performance metrics including 'Turned $100 into $1,570' and '117 winners' (marketing claim, platform statistics)
- Featured as 'Racing Tipster of the week' in August 2021 (per TheGreatTipOff)
- Average winners odds $3.35, highest $37.40 (platform statistics)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +32.3% (-9.8% → +22.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +23.6% (-10.2% → +13.4%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$32.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+13.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
32.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 145 | +$32.60 | +22.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 144 | +$23.60 | +16.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 143 | +$16.10 | +11.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 140 | $-3.90 | -2.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 14 | 42.9% | 3.34 | +$9.65 | +68.9% |
| 2026-09 | 63 | 39.7% | 4.00 | +$14.85 | +23.6% |
| 2026-10 | 68 | 30.9% | 4.62 | +$8.10 | +11.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 23 | 60.9% | $-0.03 | -0.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 37 | 37.8% | $-1.77 | -4.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 47 | 34.0% | +$13.50 | +28.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 22 | 18.2% | +$2.40 | +10.9% |
| 8.0-15 | 14 | 28.6% | +$20.50 | +146.4% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 79 | 44.3% | +$5.80 | +7.3% |
| Rank 2 | 26 | 30.8% | +$3.70 | +14.2% |
| Rank 3 | 16 | 12.5% | $-3.80 | -23.8% |
| Rank 4-5 | 17 | 29.4% | +$15.90 | +93.5% |
| Rank 6+ | 7 | 28.6% | +$11.00 | +157.1% |
Based on 145 of 145 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 15 | 6.7% | $-7.00 | -46.7% |
| Outside Zone | 130 | 39.2% | +$39.60 | +30.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 145 | 35.9% | +$32.60 | +22.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bendigo | 48 | 41.7% | +$19.95 | +41.6% |
| manangatang | 8 | 37.5% | +$14.50 | +181.2% |
| donald | 6 | 50.0% | +$7.60 | +126.7% |
| bet365 swan hill | 14 | 50.0% | +$3.75 | +26.8% |
| st arnaud | 7 | 57.1% | +$2.15 | +30.7% |
| horsham | 8 | 25.0% | $-0.60 | -7.5% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.90 | -31.7% |
| bet365 mildura | 19 | 26.3% | $-2.10 | -11.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 14 | 28.6% | $-3.20 | -22.9% |
| Tue | 35 | 28.6% | $-10.20 | -29.1% |
| Wed | 17 | 35.3% | +$7.15 | +42.1% |
| Sat | 47 | 38.3% | +$25.05 | +53.3% |
| Sun | 32 | 43.8% | +$13.80 | +43.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 62.5%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.10 (-13.7% ROI) on 8 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-20 | bendigo | Eishaa | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | manangatang | Mutsuhito | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-08-12 | bendigo | Rasp | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | manangatang | Miracle Spin | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-08-08 | bet365 mildura | Nightynight | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-15 | picklebet park wodonga | Brutify | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | bendigo | Delicate Lady | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-10 | manangatang | Lady Colonist | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | bet365 echuca | Savethebesttillast | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-18 | horsham | Best Terms | 1.90 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-28 08:28 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.