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Tony Kneebone
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.4% trails market-implied 30.7% by -4.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -29.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+4.0%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-10.73
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 110 | $-10.73 | -9.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 109 | $-28.73 | -26.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 108 | $-39.83 | -36.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 105 | $-64.03 | -61.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 27 | 29.6% | 3.96 | +$11.05 | +40.9% |
| 2026-04 | 38 | 26.3% | 5.41 | $-8.48 | -22.3% |
| 2026-05 | 45 | 24.4% | 4.10 | $-13.30 | -29.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 8 | 62.5% | +$0.30 | +3.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 36 | 27.8% | $-19.43 | -54.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 38 | 23.7% | $-3.90 | -10.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 18 | 22.2% | +$3.30 | +18.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 4 | 25.0% | +$15.00 | +375.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 13 | 23.1% | $-9.50 | -73.1% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 18 of 110 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 16 | 18.8% | $-12.50 | -78.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 110 | 26.4% | $-10.73 | -9.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bendigo | 10 | 50.0% | +$15.90 | +159.0% |
| flemington | 26 | 19.2% | +$2.82 | +10.8% |
| caulfield | 55 | 30.9% | $-4.35 | -7.9% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 9 | 11.1% | $-9.10 | -101.1% |
| mornington | 10 | 10.0% | $-16.00 | -160.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 110 | 26.4% | $-10.73 | -9.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.22 (-11.0% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-28 | flemington | Light Infantry Man | 19.00 | +$18.00 |
| 2026-04-11 | caulfield | King Tut | 4.20 | +$11.10 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Rosa Aotearoa | 3.70 | +$10.50 |
| 2026-04-11 | caulfield | Al Duca | 3.90 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | House Of Lords | 5.50 | +$6.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Duchess Zou | 2.15 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | bendigo | Lady Jones | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | caulfield | Jett Smash | 4.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Luna Vega | 2.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | sportsbet sandown hillsid | King Zephyr | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.