Tony Kneebone

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 33.9% vs implied 32.0% (+1.9pp). Picks track market expectations. 95% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +0.7% on 110 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -14.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+33.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +6.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw +14.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +9.2% (+5.3% → +14.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.7% (+2.3% → +6.0%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

112

Wins

Win Rate

33.9%

Avg Odds

3.82

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$16.25

ROI

+14.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+6.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.0%

Calibration Gap

+1.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	112	+$16.25	+14.5%
Minus best 1 bet	111	+$7.75	+7.0%
Minus best 2 bets	110	+$0.75	+0.7%
Minus best 5 bets	107	$-13.25	-12.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-14.1%

Prior 60d ROI

+33.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	26	34.6%	3.86	+$6.60	+25.4%
2026-08	42	42.9%	3.79	+$15.85	+37.7%
2026-09	35	28.6%	3.98	$-0.50	-1.4%
2026-10	9	11.1%	3.24	$-5.70	-63.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	11	72.7%	+$2.85	+25.9%
2.0-3.0	39	33.3%	$-6.60	-16.9%
3.0-5.0	36	30.6%	+$6.50	+18.1%
5.0-8.0	20	20.0%	+$2.00	+10.0%
8.0-15	5	40.0%	+$12.50	+250.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	67	37.3%	$-5.95	-8.9%
Rank 2	28	32.1%	+$11.30	+40.4%
Rank 3	10	20.0%	+$0.40	+4.0%
Rank 4-5	7	28.6%	+$10.50	+150.0%

Based on 112 of 112 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	19	21.1%	+$3.00	+15.8%
Outside Zone	93	36.6%	+$13.25	+14.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	112	33.9%	+$16.25	+14.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
caulfield	53	35.8%	+$14.05	+26.5%
caulfield heath	9	55.6%	+$7.20	+80.0%
flemington	34	26.5%	$-2.05	-6.0%
sportsbet sandown hillside	16	31.2%	$-2.95	-18.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	104	34.6%	+$19.25	+18.5%
Sun	8	25.0%	$-3.00	-37.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 62.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.59 (+7.4% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-18	flemington	Piastri	9.50	+$8.50
2026-09-19	caulfield	Icelady	8.00	+$7.00
2026-08-29	caulfield	Beiwacht	6.00	+$5.00
2026-08-15	caulfield	Shadhavar	6.00	+$5.00
2026-09-19	caulfield	Angel Capital	5.00	+$4.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	flemington	Fear No Evil	7.50	$-1.00
2026-10-03	flemington	Sir Delius	2.80	$-1.00
2026-09-12	flemington	Mbube	3.50	$-1.00
2026-09-27	caulfield	Pretty Baby	2.15	$-1.00
2026-08-29	caulfield	Blue Willow	5.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.