Tony Kneebone

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.9% trails market-implied 29.7% by -5.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -4.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-42.1%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -23.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -27.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -25.2% (-2.3% → -27.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -18.8% (-4.4% → -23.2%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

117

Wins

Win Rate

23.9%

Avg Odds

4.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-32.23

ROI

-27.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-23.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

29.7%

Calibration Gap

-5.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	117	$-32.23	-27.5%
Minus best 1 bet	116	$-42.73	-36.8%
Minus best 2 bets	115	$-49.73	-43.2%
Minus best 5 bets	112	$-67.53	-60.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-4.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-42.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	18	16.7%	3.76	$-16.08	-89.3%
2026-05	45	24.4%	4.10	$-13.30	-29.6%
2026-06	36	25.0%	4.71	+$1.35	+3.7%
2026-07	18	27.8%	3.68	$-4.20	-23.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	6	66.7%	+$0.60	+10.0%
2.0-3.0	31	22.6%	$-17.13	-55.3%
3.0-5.0	49	22.4%	$-20.00	-40.8%
5.0-8.0	20	25.0%	+$7.30	+36.5%
8.0-15	11	9.1%	$-3.00	-27.3%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	46	26.1%	$-18.25	-39.7%
Rank 2	8	37.5%	+$6.50	+81.2%
Rank 3	8	12.5%	$-3.60	-45.0%
Rank 4-5	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	4	25.0%	+$4.00	+100.0%

Based on 72 of 117 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	9	22.2%	+$1.00	+11.1%
Outside Zone	63	23.8%	$-18.35	-29.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	117	23.9%	$-32.23	-27.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bendigo	10	50.0%	+$15.90	+159.0%
sportsbet sandown hillside	18	16.7%	$-8.05	-44.7%
caulfield	35	22.9%	$-11.80	-33.7%
flemington	44	25.0%	$-12.28	-27.9%
mornington	10	10.0%	$-16.00	-160.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	117	23.9%	$-32.23	-27.5%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.04 (-0.7% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-02	bendigo	Rosa Aotearoa	3.70	+$10.50
2026-06-13	sportsbet sandown hillsid	Afterberna	8.00	+$7.00
2026-05-02	bendigo	House Of Lords	5.50	+$6.20
2026-05-09	caulfield	Simurgh	2.40	+$6.00
2026-05-02	bendigo	Seafall	6.00	+$5.60

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-18	mornington	Duchess Zou	2.15	$-3.00
2026-05-02	bendigo	Lady Jones	4.20	$-3.00
2026-05-09	caulfield	Jett Smash	4.00	$-3.00
2026-04-18	mornington	Luna Vega	2.30	$-3.00
2026-05-23	sportsbet sandown hillsid	King Zephyr	3.50	$-3.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.