Lincoln Moore

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.0% trails market-implied 32.5% by -7.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 645% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 6 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Odds

3.96

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.10

ROI

+13.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.5%

Calibration Gap

-7.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-05	8	25.0%	3.96	+$1.10	+13.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	+$0.10	+3.3%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	6	16.7%	$-2.90	-48.3%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 8 of 8 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$5.00	+500.0%
Outside Zone	7	14.3%	$-3.90	-55.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	8	25.0%	+$1.10	+13.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
balaklava	8	25.0%	+$1.10	+13.8%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	8	25.0%	+$1.10	+13.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.66 (+65.8% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-20	balaklava	Babayka	6.00	+$5.00
2026-05-20	balaklava	Safe Bet	3.10	+$2.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-20	balaklava	Artful Maximus	2.80	$-1.00
2026-05-20	balaklava	Sir Panama	3.90	$-1.00
2026-05-20	balaklava	Extra Fling	1.65	$-1.00
2026-05-20	balaklava	So Polite	3.00	$-1.00
2026-05-20	balaklava	Valued	9.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.