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Lincoln Moore
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 26.0% vs implied 28.1% (-2.1pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -31.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+12.5%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +7.3% (-11.4% → -4.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.4% (-11.7% → -6.3%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-6.07
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-6.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 150 | $-6.07 | -4.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 149 | $-13.07 | -8.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 148 | $-19.57 | -13.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 145 | $-35.07 | -24.2% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 39 | 38.5% | 5.40 | +$19.13 | +49.1% |
| 2026-08 | 46 | 23.9% | 4.65 | $-6.00 | -13.0% |
| 2026-09 | 51 | 15.7% | 4.33 | $-26.40 | -51.8% |
| 2026-10 | 14 | 35.7% | 4.41 | +$7.20 | +51.4% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 14 | 35.7% | $-6.07 | -43.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 32 | 34.4% | $-4.70 | -14.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 47 | 31.9% | +$11.70 | +24.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 43 | 16.3% | $-1.00 | -2.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 12 | 8.3% | $-4.00 | -33.3% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 58 | 34.5% | $-2.37 | -4.1% |
| Rank 2 | 36 | 27.8% | +$1.80 | +5.0% |
| Rank 3 | 26 | 15.4% | $-7.00 | -26.9% |
| Rank 4-5 | 21 | 23.8% | +$10.50 | +50.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 150 of 150 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 28 | 10.7% | $-9.50 | -33.9% |
| Outside Zone | 122 | 29.5% | +$3.43 | +2.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 150 | 26.0% | $-6.07 | -4.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 41 | 29.3% | +$10.05 | +24.5% |
| balaklava | 14 | 42.9% | +$8.53 | +60.9% |
| sportsbet gawler | 13 | 38.5% | +$4.20 | +32.3% |
| sportsbet port lincoln | 8 | 25.0% | +$2.20 | +27.5% |
| bordertown | 9 | 22.2% | $-1.60 | -17.8% |
| naracoorte | 14 | 14.3% | $-5.20 | -37.1% |
| mount gambier | 14 | 21.4% | $-6.30 | -45.0% |
| port augusta | 11 | 9.1% | $-8.20 | -74.5% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 6 | 50.0% | +$5.00 | +83.3% |
| Wed | 60 | 23.3% | $-9.35 | -15.6% |
| Fri | 37 | 27.0% | +$2.40 | +6.5% |
| Sun | 47 | 25.5% | $-4.12 | -8.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 17 settled, place rate 70.6%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$4.26 (+25.1% ROI) on 17 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-17 | thomas farms rc murray br | Durham | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | thomas farms rc murray br | Chartin | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-08-12 | thomas farms rc murray br | Dirty Deal | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-07-26 | balaklava | Je City | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Another Bride | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-04 | sportsbet port lincoln | Fullheadofsteam | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | naracoorte | Hasta La Amnesty | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-30 | balaklava | Synthesise | 1.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | mount gambier | Gusty Way | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | thomas farms rc murray br | Rich Britt | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.