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Lincoln Moore
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (54 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.2% trails market-implied 29.6% by -7.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -22.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+13.8%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: —
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-9.21
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-15.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 54 | $-9.21 | -17.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 53 | $-16.71 | -31.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 52 | $-21.71 | -41.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 49 | $-31.41 | -64.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 8 | 25.0% | 3.96 | +$1.10 | +13.8% |
| 2026-06 | 45 | 22.2% | 4.67 | $-9.31 | -20.7% |
| 2026-07 | 1 | 0.0% | 4.60 | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 28.6% | $-4.01 | -57.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 10 | 20.0% | $-5.10 | -51.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 19 | 26.3% | $-1.60 | -8.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 16.7% | $-1.00 | -8.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 20.0% | +$3.50 | +70.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 23 | 30.4% | $-4.31 | -18.7% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 11.1% | $-4.00 | -44.4% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 50.0% | +$6.60 | +110.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 8 | 12.5% | +$0.50 | +6.2% |
Based on 54 of 54 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 50.0% | +$7.00 | +175.0% |
| Outside Zone | 50 | 20.0% | $-16.21 | -32.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 54 | 22.2% | $-9.21 | -17.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| balaklava | 24 | 29.2% | +$7.90 | +32.9% |
| strathalbyn | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.46 | -55.8% |
| port augusta | 14 | 21.4% | $-4.65 | -33.2% |
| bordertown | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.46 | -55.8% |
| Wed | 9 | 22.2% | +$0.10 | +1.1% |
| Fri | 8 | 37.5% | +$2.80 | +35.0% |
| Sun | 29 | 17.2% | $-7.65 | -26.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.90 (-14.9% ROI) on 6 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | Impending Diamond | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-05-20 | balaklava | Babayka | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-06-07 | port augusta | Star Casino | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | balaklava | Reciprocal | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | balaklava | The Cosmic One | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | Redwinelover | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | balaklava | Artful Maximus | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | port augusta | Sacred Chord | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | I Am Ralph | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-07 | port augusta | Carashan Chloe | 2.05 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.