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Lincoln Moore
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 26.4% vs implied 28.5% (-2.1pp). Picks track market expectations. 3452% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -11.1% on 127 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -14.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+8.4%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -3.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw +0.3%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -1.6% (+1.9% → +0.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.2% (-2.2% → -3.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$0.42
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-3.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 129 | +$0.42 | +0.3% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 128 | $-7.08 | -5.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 127 | $-14.08 | -11.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 124 | $-31.08 | -25.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 45 | 22.2% | 4.67 | $-9.31 | -20.7% |
| 2026-07 | 46 | 34.8% | 5.16 | +$15.23 | +33.1% |
| 2026-08 | 38 | 21.1% | 4.96 | $-5.50 | -14.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 18 | 33.3% | $-8.68 | -48.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 20 | 35.0% | $-1.80 | -9.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 37 | 32.4% | +$7.40 | +20.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 40 | 17.5% | +$1.00 | +2.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 18.2% | +$5.50 | +50.0% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 44 | 34.1% | $-4.38 | -10.0% |
| Rank 2 | 26 | 30.8% | +$4.20 | +16.2% |
| Rank 3 | 20 | 25.0% | $-0.40 | -2.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 25 | 20.0% | +$6.50 | +26.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 14 | 7.1% | $-5.50 | -39.3% |
Based on 129 of 129 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 18 | 16.7% | $-0.50 | -2.8% |
| Outside Zone | 111 | 27.9% | +$0.92 | +0.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 129 | 26.4% | +$0.42 | +0.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| thomas farms rc murray bridge | 27 | 37.0% | +$17.60 | +65.2% |
| balaklava | 29 | 37.9% | +$17.08 | +58.9% |
| mount gambier | 7 | 28.6% | $-1.50 | -21.4% |
| naracoorte | 14 | 14.3% | $-5.20 | -37.1% |
| bordertown | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| strathalbyn | 20 | 25.0% | $-7.71 | -38.6% |
| port augusta | 25 | 16.0% | $-12.85 | -51.4% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.46 | -55.8% |
| Wed | 38 | 26.3% | +$0.75 | +2.0% |
| Fri | 36 | 30.6% | +$6.80 | +18.9% |
| Sun | 47 | 23.4% | $-2.67 | -5.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 15 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.38 (+22.5% ROI) on 15 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | Impending Diamond | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | thomas farms rc murray br | Durham | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | thomas farms rc murray br | Chartin | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-08-12 | thomas farms rc murray br | Dirty Deal | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-07-26 | balaklava | Je City | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | Redwinelover | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | naracoorte | Hasta La Amnesty | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-21 | port augusta | Sacred Chord | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | mount gambier | Gusty Way | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | balaklava | I Am Ralph | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.