Jackson Oldham

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is positive: actual win rate 51.9% beats market-implied 32.8% by +19.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -2.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +7 new bets · ROI: +7.5% (-9.7% → -2.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +4.6% (-11.1% → -6.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

51.9%

Avg Odds

3.99

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.70

ROI

-2.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.8%

Calibration Gap

+19.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	77	$-1.70	-2.2%
Minus best 1 bet	76	$-5.00	-6.6%
Minus best 2 bets	75	$-7.55	-10.1%
Minus best 5 bets	72	$-14.85	-20.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-0.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-3.5%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	15	40.0%	4.34	$-2.25	-15.0%
2026-08	20	50.0%	4.78	$-3.84	-19.2%
2026-09	32	56.2%	3.75	$-0.29	-0.9%
2026-10	10	60.0%	2.66	+$4.68	+46.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	12	41.7%	$-2.87	-23.9%
2.0-3.0	26	46.2%	$-1.94	-7.5%
3.0-5.0	21	52.4%	+$7.21	+34.3%
5.0-8.0	11	54.5%	$-3.86	-35.1%
8.0-15	6	100.0%	+$0.76	+12.7%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	51	49.0%	+$2.40	+4.7%
Rank 2	13	46.2%	$-2.38	-18.3%
Rank 3	5	80.0%	$-0.29	-5.8%
Rank 4-5	5	60.0%	$-1.57	-31.4%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 75 of 77 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	11	72.7%	$-1.65	-15.0%
Outside Zone	64	46.9%	$-1.19	-1.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	77	51.9%	$-1.70	-2.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sandown	10	70.0%	+$4.64	+46.4%
flemington	6	66.7%	+$1.64	+27.3%
geelong	6	50.0%	+$1.42	+23.7%
ballarat	7	42.9%	$-1.08	-15.4%
caulfield	8	50.0%	$-1.77	-22.1%
moe	5	40.0%	$-2.03	-40.6%
mornington	5	20.0%	$-3.47	-69.4%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 13 settled, place rate 69.2%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.74 (+5.7% ROI) on 13 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-15	sandown	1. Silent Shares	4.30	+$3.30
2026-08-18	ballarat	6. Stuntman	3.55	+$2.55
2026-07-28	swan hill	7. Budjik Queen	3.45	+$2.45
2026-10-03	flemington	15. Skybird	3.45	+$2.45
2026-10-07	geelong	6. Mr Natural	3.40	+$2.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-19	sandown	14. Gold Chariot	2.08	$-1.00
2026-09-24	moe	5. Marilyns Edge	7.20	$-1.00
2026-09-17	mornington	4. Bella Cinque	7.60	$-1.00
2026-10-08	kyneton	14. Meness	1.51	$-1.00
2026-09-25	mornington	4. Plunger	5.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.