Jackson Oldham

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 40.0% beats market-implied 27.3% by +12.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw -48.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -38.5% (-9.7% → -48.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -4.7% (-11.5% → -16.2%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Odds

3.81

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.41

ROI

-48.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-16.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.3%

Calibration Gap

+12.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	3	33.3%	3.40	$-1.65	-55.0%
2026-07	2	50.0%	4.42	$-0.76	-38.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	$-1.65	-55.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$0.24	+24.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	4	25.0%	$-2.65	-66.2%
Rank 2	1	100.0%	+$0.24	+24.0%

Based on 5 of 5 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$0.24	+24.0%
Outside Zone	4	25.0%	$-2.65	-66.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	5	40.0%	$-2.41	-48.2%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-30	ballarat	4. Pantoja	3.85	+$0.35
2026-07-01	sandown	13. Cinturato	5.10	+$0.24

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-07	ballarat	6. Filigree Shadow	3.75	$-1.00
2026-06-30	ballarat	11. Orchid Sky	2.76	$-1.00
2026-06-25	bendigo	7. Iberian Lynx	3.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.