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Campbell Brown
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (56 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.8% trails market-implied 33.8% by -7.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +12.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-65.5%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -23.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -33.4%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -4.8% (-28.6% → -33.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.3% (-24.0% → -23.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-18.70
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-23.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
33.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 56 | $-18.70 | -33.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 55 | $-21.20 | -38.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 54 | $-23.70 | -43.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 51 | $-29.20 | -57.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 4 | 0.0% | 3.46 | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 25 | 20.0% | 3.61 | $-13.60 | -54.4% |
| 2026-06 | 12 | 33.3% | 3.27 | $-1.70 | -14.2% |
| 2026-07 | 15 | 40.0% | 3.16 | +$0.60 | +4.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 6 | 66.7% | +$0.90 | +15.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 20 | 40.0% | +$0.40 | +2.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 23 | 13.0% | $-13.00 | -56.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 15 | 60.0% | +$8.30 | +55.3% |
| Rank 2 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.60 | +160.0% |
Based on 29 of 56 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 26 | 38.5% | $-0.10 | -0.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 56 | 26.8% | $-18.70 | -33.4% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 8 | 12.5% | $-6.35 | -79.4% |
| Wed | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.90 | +22.5% |
| Thu | 20 | 25.0% | $-6.50 | -32.5% |
| Fri | 24 | 29.2% | $-6.75 | -28.1% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-12 | ballarat | Amleto | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
| 2026-07-09 | rockhampton | Humble Hero | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
| 2026-05-13 | bendigo | Clevor Trever | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | sale | Master Taj | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-06-11 | gosford | Pazyryk | 2.70 | +$1.70 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-07 | warrnambool | Tempesti | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | kilmore | Tennesseetwopiece | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | goulburn | Sugilite | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | bairnsdale | Vegas On Fire | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-04 | hawkesbury | Rose Water | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.