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Campbell Brown
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (50 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.0% trails market-implied 34.9% by -14.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -81.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-50.7%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -34.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -55.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -14.5% (-41.1% → -55.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -1.6% (-32.7% → -34.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-27.80
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-34.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 50 | $-27.80 | -55.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 49 | $-31.60 | -64.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 48 | $-34.00 | -70.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 45 | $-37.60 | -83.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 18 | 38.9% | 3.11 | $-1.70 | -9.4% |
| 2026-08 | 24 | 8.3% | 3.90 | $-19.60 | -81.7% |
| 2026-10 | 8 | 12.5% | 3.12 | $-6.50 | -81.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 85.7% | +$2.20 | +31.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 15 | 13.3% | $-10.20 | -68.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 17 | 11.8% | $-8.80 | -51.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 28 | 32.1% | $-10.60 | -37.9% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 11.1% | $-4.20 | -46.7% |
| Rank 3 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 50 of 50 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 42 | 23.8% | $-19.80 | -47.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 50 | 20.0% | $-27.80 | -55.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| randwick | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.50 | -70.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Thu | 13 | 53.8% | +$3.60 | +27.7% |
| Fri | 17 | 5.9% | $-15.50 | -91.2% |
| Sat | 11 | 18.2% | $-6.90 | -62.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.26 (+13.0% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-30 | gatton | Thunderous | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-07-16 | kembla grange | Cuesta | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
| 2026-08-07 | caulfield | Cavalry Girl | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
| 2026-07-30 | bendigo | Kandinsky | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-08-20 | warrnambool | Empress Rossa | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-16 | cranbourne | Nasraawy | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | coffs harbour | Spenzalot | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | rockhampton | Remember The Boys | 2.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-12 | pinjarra | State Of Boom | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | flemington | Arkansaw Kid | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.