Josh Heriot

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 38.5% beats market-implied 30.9% by +7.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 224% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -32.7% on 11 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -5.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw +22.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -13.3% (+35.6% → +22.3%) · Shrunk ROI: -5.6% (-0.1% → -5.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

38.5%

Avg Odds

3.77

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.90

ROI

+22.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-5.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.9%

Calibration Gap

+7.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	+$2.90	+22.3%
Minus best 1 bet	12	$-1.10	-9.2%
Minus best 2 bets	11	$-3.60	-32.7%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-8.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	10	40.0%	3.95	+$2.70	+27.0%
2026-10	3	33.3%	3.17	+$0.20	+6.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.95	+95.0%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.75	-43.8%
3.0-5.0	5	40.0%	+$1.70	+34.0%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	6	50.0%	+$1.40	+23.3%
Rank 2	4	25.0%	$-0.50	-12.5%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 13 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
Outside Zone	11	36.4%	$-0.10	-0.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	13	38.5%	+$2.90	+22.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
southside pakenham synthetic	10	40.0%	+$2.70	+27.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	10	40.0%	+$2.70	+27.0%
Tue	1	100.0%	+$2.20	+220.0%
Fri	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Butterscotch	5.00	+$4.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Jundah	3.50	+$2.50
2026-10-13	bet365 park kilmore	Sugar Schnapps	3.20	+$2.20
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Praise Her	2.25	+$1.25
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Lake Forest	1.95	+$0.95

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Dundonald	2.70	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Aitu	9.00	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	King Maywin	3.00	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Hulkster	5.50	$-1.00
2026-10-09	southside cranbourne	Presscode	3.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.