Josh Heriot

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (8 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 37.5% beats market-implied 33.2% by +4.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 325% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -139.2% on 6 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

37.5%

Avg Odds

3.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.71

ROI

+46.4%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

33.2%

Calibration Gap

+4.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	8	37.5%	3.48	+$3.71	+46.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$3.11	+155.5%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	+$1.60	+32.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	8	37.5%	+$3.71	+46.4%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
ladbrokes geelong	8	37.5%	+$3.71	+46.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	8	37.5%	+$3.71	+46.4%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Short Reply	4.00	+$9.60
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Col Klink	1.85	+$2.46
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Cabriole	1.65	+$0.65

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Handsome Missile	4.60	$-3.00
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Invincible Woman	3.70	$-3.00
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Fox Phire	3.40	$-1.00
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Pentonville Road	5.00	$-1.00
2026-04-10	ladbrokes geelong	Oceans Above	3.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.