Josh Heriot

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (10 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 40.0% beats market-implied 30.6% by +9.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 241% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -47.5% on 8 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +27.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.6% (+35.6% → +27.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.2% (-0.1% → -6.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Odds

3.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.70

ROI

+27.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.6%

Calibration Gap

+9.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	10	+$2.70	+27.0%
Minus best 1 bet	9	$-1.30	-14.4%
Minus best 2 bets	8	$-3.80	-47.5%
Minus best 5 bets	5	$-5.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	10	40.0%	3.95	+$2.70	+27.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.95	+95.0%
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.75	-25.0%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	+$0.50	+16.7%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	40.0%	$-0.80	-16.0%
Rank 2	2	50.0%	+$1.50	+75.0%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 10 of 10 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
Outside Zone	8	37.5%	$-0.30	-3.8%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	10	40.0%	+$2.70	+27.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
southside pakenham synthetic	10	40.0%	+$2.70	+27.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	10	40.0%	+$2.70	+27.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Butterscotch	5.00	+$4.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Jundah	3.50	+$2.50
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Praise Her	2.25	+$1.25
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Lake Forest	1.95	+$0.95

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Dundonald	2.70	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Aitu	9.00	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	King Maywin	3.00	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Hulkster	5.50	$-1.00
2026-07-20	southside pakenham synthe	Phillip Island	3.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.