Darren McAullay

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.7% vs implied 31.8% (-2.1pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -28.9%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-7.6%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

148

Wins

Win Rate

29.7%

Avg Odds

4.59

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-26.59

ROI

-18.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.8%

Calibration Gap

-2.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	148	$-26.59	-18.0%
Minus best 1 bet	147	$-33.79	-23.0%
Minus best 2 bets	146	$-39.79	-27.3%
Minus best 5 bets	143	$-53.39	-37.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-28.9%

Prior 60d ROI

-7.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	36	22.2%	3.58	$-8.49	-23.6%
2026-04	40	35.0%	3.73	+$2.70	+6.7%
2026-05	72	30.6%	5.58	$-20.80	-28.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	16	68.8%	+$0.60	+3.8%
2.0-3.0	42	35.7%	$-11.49	-27.4%
3.0-5.0	58	22.4%	$-14.20	-24.5%
5.0-8.0	20	25.0%	+$10.50	+52.5%
8.0-15	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
15+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	14	57.1%	+$1.60	+11.4%
Rank 2	10	0.0%	$-10.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$5.00	+250.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 31 of 148 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	25	36.0%	$-2.40	-9.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	148	29.7%	$-26.59	-18.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pinjarra scarpside	8	62.5%	+$8.80	+110.0%
rockingham	7	57.1%	+$6.10	+87.1%
northam	7	42.9%	$-0.25	-3.6%
geraldton	22	27.3%	$-2.54	-11.5%
belmont	44	34.1%	$-4.45	-10.1%
york	12	16.7%	$-7.50	-62.5%
pinjarra park	10	10.0%	$-7.95	-79.5%
ascot	38	21.1%	$-18.80	-49.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Wed	44	29.5%	$-6.90	-15.7%
Thu	15	13.3%	$-16.50	-110.0%
Fri	12	41.7%	+$0.96	+8.0%
Sat	49	30.6%	$-8.00	-16.3%
Sun	22	40.9%	+$9.85	+44.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.57 (-28.5% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-19	geraldton	Blue Lupin	7.50	+$7.20
2026-05-30	belmont	The Calabrese	7.00	+$6.00
2026-04-19	geraldton	Sneaky Session	5.50	+$4.80
2026-04-18	ascot	Kings Court	5.50	+$4.50
2026-03-13	geraldton	Flaming Dragon	4.20	+$4.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-30	geraldton	Deep Discretion	1.95	$-3.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Awesome Lily	4.20	$-3.00
2026-05-03	northam	Belaura Star	2.25	$-3.00
2026-04-30	geraldton	Kallahti	3.80	$-3.00
2026-04-19	geraldton	Playing Games	3.60	$-3.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.