Nick Lovett

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (7 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.6% trails market-implied 35.3% by -6.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 161% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 5 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

28.6%

Avg Odds

3.04

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$8.26

ROI

+118.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.3%

Calibration Gap

-6.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	7	28.6%	3.04	+$8.26	+118.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	+$2.26	+75.3%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	+$7.00	+233.3%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	7	28.6%	+$8.26	+118.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
picklebet park werribee	7	28.6%	+$8.26	+118.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	7	28.6%	+$8.26	+118.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	One More Star	4.20	+$9.00
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	Seethru	2.45	+$4.26

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	Mosquito Award	3.90	$-1.00
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	Meleys	2.90	$-1.00
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	Certainly Quiet	1.80	$-1.00
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	Morthan Efficient	2.90	$-1.00
2026-04-24	picklebet park werribee	Cabaret Queen	3.10	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.