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Nick Lovett
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 40.0% vs implied 41.3% (-1.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -13.4% — a more honest expectation than the raw -17.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -78.8% (+61.8% → -17.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -14.8% (+1.5% → -13.4%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-0.85
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-13.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
41.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
(insufficient data)
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-08 | 5 | 40.0% | 2.53 | $-0.85 | -17.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.15 | +38.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 50.0% | +$0.15 | +3.8% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 5 of 5 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.85 | -17.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.85 | -17.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| broome | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.85 | -17.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.85 | -17.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-11 | broome | Now You See Me | 2.10 | +$1.10 |
| 2026-08-11 | broome | Majestuoso Phoenix | 2.05 | +$1.05 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-11 | broome | Dust Aside | 2.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | broome | Fire The Guard | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-11 | broome | Chantilly Girl | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.