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Paul Sebastiani
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (33 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 30.3% beats market-implied 27.3% by +3.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 258% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -20.2% on 31 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +28.1%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-60.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$3.95
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 33 | +$3.95 | +12.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 32 | $-3.05 | -9.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 31 | $-6.25 | -20.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 28 | $-13.95 | -49.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 10 | 30.0% | 4.15 | $-1.05 | -10.5% |
| 2026-05 | 23 | 30.4% | 6.22 | +$5.00 | +21.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 11 | 27.3% | $-3.35 | -30.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 13 | 46.2% | +$8.30 | +63.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 33.3% | +$5.00 | +166.7% |
| 15+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 100.0% | +$12.80 | +426.7% |
Based on 4 of 33 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 100.0% | +$7.00 | +700.0% |
| Outside Zone | 3 | 66.7% | +$4.80 | +160.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 33 | 30.3% | +$3.95 | +12.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sale | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sat | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Sun | 30 | 33.3% | +$6.95 | +23.2% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.64 (+64.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-24 | mildura | Everythingisautumn | 8.00 | +$7.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | ballarat | Bear Champ | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-05-17 | casterton | Ferago | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-05-24 | mildura | Nosie By Nature | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-04-26 | hobart | Skelmorlie | 3.30 | +$2.30 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-10 | ballarat | Signor Del Gatto | 13.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | casterton | Karburan | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | mildura | Poised | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | caulfield | Brayden Star | 34.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | stawell | Chase Your Dreams | 3.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.