Dean Watling

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 46.2% beats market-implied 38.8% by +7.3pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 204% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -27.4% on 11 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -5.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw +22.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -4.9% (+27.2% → +22.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.4% (-2.4% → -5.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

46.2%

Avg Odds

3.36

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$2.89

ROI

+22.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-5.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

38.8%

Calibration Gap

+7.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	+$2.89	+22.2%
Minus best 1 bet	12	$-1.11	-9.3%
Minus best 2 bets	11	$-3.01	-27.4%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-6.76	-84.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	2	0.0%	3.42	$-2.00	-100.0%
2026-08	6	66.7%	2.39	+$2.74	+45.7%
2026-09	5	40.0%	4.50	+$2.15	+43.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.76	-38.0%
2.0-3.0	6	66.7%	+$3.65	+60.8%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	71.4%	+$3.89	+55.6%
Rank 2	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$3.00	+150.0%

Based on 13 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	12	50.0%	+$3.89	+32.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	13	46.2%	+$2.89	+22.2%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.62 (+30.8% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-09	hawkesbury	Lady Of The Castle	5.00	+$4.00
2026-08-29	wyong	Lucand Magic	2.90	+$1.90
2026-08-07	kembla grange	Zaragoza	2.30	+$1.30
2026-08-29	wyong	The Thorncaster	2.30	+$1.30
2026-09-09	hawkesbury	Not On My Watch	2.15	+$1.15

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-31	newcastle	Sparkling Fire	1.85	$-1.00
2026-08-07	kembla grange	Wonka	2.00	$-1.00
2026-09-02	coffs harbour	Felis Chaus	3.70	$-1.00
2026-09-03	coffs harbour	Zweigelt	2.15	$-1.00
2026-07-31	newcastle	Audaciously Frank	5.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.