Ian Humphries

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (22 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 31.8% beats market-implied 26.4% by +5.4pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 183% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -38.5% on 20 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

31.8%

Avg Odds

5.74

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$9.30

ROI

+42.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.4%

Calibration Gap

+5.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	22	+$9.30	+42.3%
Minus best 1 bet	21	+$0.30	+1.4%
Minus best 2 bets	20	$-7.70	-38.5%
Minus best 5 bets	17	$-13.15	-77.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	8	0.0%	4.53	$-8.00	-100.0%
2026-04	10	50.0%	6.67	+$17.05	+170.5%
2026-05	4	50.0%	5.81	+$0.25	+6.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.45	-22.5%
2.0-3.0	5	60.0%	+$2.35	+47.0%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	$-1.60	-32.0%
5.0-8.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	50.0%	+$15.00	+375.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	1	100.0%	+$1.70	+170.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 2 of 22 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	2	50.0%	+$0.70	+35.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	22	31.8%	+$9.30	+42.3%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Sun	1	100.0%	+$9.00	+900.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-17	wagga	Love Shuck	10.00	+$9.00
2026-04-18	wagga	Love Shuck	9.00	+$8.00
2026-04-13	ballina	Dance Gavin Dance	3.40	+$2.40
2026-05-25	albury	With Strength	2.70	+$1.70
2026-04-16	canberra	The Stars Align	2.35	+$1.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-29	sapphire coast	Stormy Reign	2.70	$-1.00
2026-03-14	york	Prince Harrison	7.50	$-1.00
2026-03-07	carrick	Hammering Away	6.50	$-1.00
2026-04-18	wagga	Masked Vision	3.30	$-1.00
2026-03-24	canberra	Soul Lady	4.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.