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Ian Humphries
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (20 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 45.0% beats market-implied 35.9% by +9.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 90% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +4.2% on 18 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +1.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +37.8%.
Bio & context
Ian Humphries is a form analyst and racing tipster who provides tips through TAB NSW and appears on platforms including The Great Tip Off and RSN927. Described as a "veteran analyst" and "seasoned judge of country and provincial form," he specializes in NSW country and provincial racing, particularly tracks like Nowra, Orange, Albury, Canberra, and Newcastle. His methodology is characterized as stats-driven and form-based, with a focus on uncovering value in the betting market.
NSW, AustraliaForm analyst and racing tipster4 yrs
Methodology: Stats-driven form analysis with focus on value betting; provides detailed race breakdowns including track conditions, rail positions, and confidence-rated selections
Specialty: NSW country and provincial racing, particularly Nowra, Orange, Albury, Canberra, and Newcastle meetings
Public footprint
- The Great Tip Off platform (TAB NSW tipster)
- RSN927 radio (form analyst contributions)
- Regular tips published on TheGreatTipOff.com with race previews
Public track-record claims
- Marketing descriptions as 'trusted and highly respected voice' (platform marketing)
- 'Meticulous approach to form analysis' (platform marketing)
- 'Consistently uncover hidden value' (platform marketing, unverified)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +9.3% (+28.4% → +37.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -8.3% (+9.8% → +1.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$7.55
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+1.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
35.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 20 | +$7.55 | +37.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 19 | +$3.55 | +18.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 18 | +$0.75 | +4.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 15 | $-5.25 | -35.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 6 | 66.7% | 3.30 | +$6.50 | +108.3% |
| 2026-08 | 9 | 33.3% | 4.17 | +$1.90 | +21.1% |
| 2026-09 | 4 | 25.0% | 2.94 | $-1.75 | -43.8% |
| 2026-10 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.90 | +$0.90 | +90.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.10 | -62.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 75.0% | +$3.85 | +96.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 57.1% | +$5.80 | +82.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.00 | +150.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 9 | 33.3% | $-0.40 | -4.4% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 66.7% | +$3.05 | +101.7% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 75.0% | +$3.90 | +97.5% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 33.3% | +$2.00 | +66.7% |
Based on 20 of 20 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 19 | 47.4% | +$8.55 | +45.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 20 | 45.0% | +$7.55 | +37.8% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 1 | 100.0% | +$2.00 | +200.0% |
| Sat | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.90 | +90.0% |
| Sun | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.24 (+23.8% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-07 | caulfield | Pariah Flyer | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | goulburn | The Eyes Have It | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-08-01 | forbes | Colly Blue | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
| 2026-07-25 | albury | Jungle Lights | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
| 2026-07-26 | albury | Jungle Lights | 3.00 | +$2.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-20 | warren | Media Spin | 1.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-20 | warren | Rothgate | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | canberra | Cougars | 3.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | forbes | Cool As Popeye | 8.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-03 | gundagai | First Day | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.