Shane Jackson

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (4 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 41.2% by +8.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 225% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -100.0% on 2 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw +40.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +72.0% (-32.0% → +40.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.3% (-17.4% → -9.1%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

2.49

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.60

ROI

+40.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-9.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

41.2%

Calibration Gap

+8.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-08	4	50.0%	2.49	+$1.60	+40.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$2.60	+86.7%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	2	100.0%	+$3.60	+180.0%

Based on 4 of 4 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	4	50.0%	+$1.60	+40.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	4	50.0%	+$1.60	+40.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Sun	3	66.7%	+$2.60	+86.7%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.02 (+51.2% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-02	sportsbet sandown lakesid	Split	2.90	+$1.90
2026-08-02	sportsbet sandown lakesid	Andy Win	2.70	+$1.70

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	belmont	Want A Winner	2.45	$-1.00
2026-08-02	sportsbet sandown lakesid	Stern Idol	1.90	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.