Mick Gannon

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (38 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 15.8% trails market-implied 30.5% by -14.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -81.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-36.2%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -34.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -62.4%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -34.6% (-27.7% → -62.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -11.4% (-22.9% → -34.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

15.8%

Avg Odds

3.90

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-23.70

ROI

-62.4%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-34.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.5%

Calibration Gap

-14.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	38	$-23.70	-62.4%
Minus best 1 bet	37	$-26.20	-70.8%
Minus best 2 bets	36	$-27.70	-76.9%
Minus best 5 bets	33	$-31.10	-94.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-81.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-36.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	8	25.0%	4.49	$-2.20	-27.5%
2026-08	6	33.3%	2.64	$-1.60	-26.7%
2026-09	22	4.5%	4.15	$-20.00	-90.9%
2026-10	2	50.0%	2.55	+$0.10	+5.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.10	-5.0%
2.0-3.0	12	33.3%	$-3.10	-25.8%
3.0-5.0	15	6.7%	$-11.50	-76.7%
5.0-8.0	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	18	33.3%	$-3.70	-20.6%
Rank 2	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 38 of 38 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	33	18.2%	$-18.70	-56.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	38	15.8%	$-23.70	-62.4%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rosehill	6	33.3%	$-0.20	-3.3%
randwick	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Thu	11	18.2%	$-6.90	-62.7%
Fri	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Sat	13	15.4%	$-7.20	-55.4%
Sun	10	20.0%	$-5.60	-56.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.14 (-28.5% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-31	rosehill	Attractiveness	3.50	+$2.50
2026-08-02	wyong	My Country Boy	2.50	+$1.50
2026-07-17	rosehill	Sword Of Legacy	2.30	+$1.30
2026-10-07	orange	Macaroon	2.10	+$1.10
2026-09-30	tamworth	Grafology	2.00	+$1.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-30	illawarra grange	Sonic Bender	3.00	$-1.00
2026-09-13	bathurst	Forbidden Riff	5.00	$-1.00
2026-09-23	warwick farm	Sneaky Choice	5.50	$-1.00
2026-09-18	randwick	Headwall	3.20	$-1.00
2026-09-23	warwick farm	Cobra Club	4.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.