Mick Gannon

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (47 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.8% vs implied 27.0% (+2.8pp). Picks track market expectations. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.9% — a more honest expectation than the raw -6.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +6.6% (-13.3% → -6.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.3% (-13.2% → -9.9%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

29.8%

Avg Odds

4.71

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.15

ROI

-6.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-9.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.0%

Calibration Gap

+2.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	47	$-3.15	-6.7%
Minus best 1 bet	46	$-9.65	-21.0%
Minus best 2 bets	45	$-12.35	-27.4%
Minus best 5 bets	42	$-19.55	-46.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-10.0%

Prior 60d ROI

-5.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	7	42.9%	3.24	+$1.45	+20.7%
2026-05	20	25.0%	4.91	$-0.40	-2.0%
2026-06	14	35.7%	4.31	$-1.90	-13.6%
2026-07	6	16.7%	6.72	$-2.30	-38.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	13	69.2%	+$9.45	+72.7%
3.0-5.0	16	25.0%	$-2.10	-13.1%
5.0-8.0	13	7.7%	$-5.50	-42.3%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	12	41.7%	$-0.10	-0.8%
Rank 2	6	33.3%	$-0.60	-10.0%
Rank 3	5	20.0%	$-1.30	-26.0%
Rank 4-5	5	20.0%	+$2.50	+50.0%
Rank 6+	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Based on 32 of 47 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	25	36.0%	+$3.50	+14.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	47	29.8%	$-3.15	-6.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
randwick	6	33.3%	+$0.20	+3.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	1	100.0%	+$2.50	+250.0%
Wed	3	33.3%	$-0.70	-23.3%
Thu	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Fri	13	30.8%	$-1.95	-15.0%
Sat	17	29.4%	+$2.30	+13.5%
Sun	11	27.3%	$-3.30	-30.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.08 (+8.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-29	rosehill	All The Way Mae	7.50	+$6.50
2026-07-03	goulburn	Nuns Chorus	3.70	+$2.70
2026-05-04	ipswich	Chillaxing	3.50	+$2.50
2026-05-08	gosford	I Am Dirty	3.40	+$2.40
2026-04-24	randwick	Enamorada	3.30	+$2.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-15	scone	Linebacker	2.45	$-1.00
2026-06-05	randwick	Lugh	5.50	$-1.00
2026-07-05	hobart	Eastcoast Miss	12.00	$-1.00
2026-04-23	newcastle	Borjnord	4.40	$-1.00
2026-05-01	hawkesbury	Karinska	6.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.