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Mick Gannon
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (57 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.8% vs implied 28.9% (+0.9pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +15.3%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-13.1%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-2.65
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 57 | $-2.65 | -4.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 56 | $-9.15 | -16.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 55 | $-12.95 | -23.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 52 | $-21.15 | -40.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 19 | 31.6% | 3.26 | $-3.60 | -18.9% |
| 2026-04 | 21 | 28.6% | 6.29 | $-1.65 | -7.9% |
| 2026-05 | 17 | 29.4% | 4.97 | +$2.60 | +15.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.00 | +33.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 15 | 53.3% | +$5.15 | +34.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 24 | 25.0% | $-1.30 | -5.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 9 | 11.1% | $-1.50 | -16.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 66.7% | +$2.20 | +73.3% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 50.0% | +$5.50 | +275.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 9 of 57 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 42.9% | +$5.70 | +81.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 57 | 29.8% | $-2.65 | -4.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| rosehill | 7 | 14.3% | +$0.50 | +7.1% |
| randwick | 12 | 16.7% | $-5.80 | -48.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 2 | 100.0% | +$3.50 | +175.0% |
| Tue | 4 | 25.0% | $-1.30 | -32.5% |
| Wed | 3 | 33.3% | $-0.70 | -23.3% |
| Thu | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Fri | 12 | 33.3% | +$0.25 | +2.1% |
| Sat | 32 | 25.0% | $-2.10 | -6.6% |
| Sun | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.30 | -15.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-29 | rosehill | All The Way Mae | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-04-10 | tamworth | Big Short | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-03-20 | kembla grange | Midnight Opal | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-04-10 | caulfield | Single Choice | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-05-04 | ipswich | Chillaxing | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | tamworth | Invincible Red | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | caulfield | Enamorada | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | scone | Linebacker | 2.45 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | wellington | Check Your Six | 9.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | newcastle | Borjnord | 4.40 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.