Sky Racing - Colin Hodges

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (14 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.4% trails market-implied 47.7% by -26.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -25.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -70.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -24.6% (-45.6% → -70.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +3.9% (-29.4% → -25.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

21.4%

Avg Odds

4.44

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-9.83

ROI

-70.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-25.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.7%

Calibration Gap

-26.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	14	$-9.83	-70.2%
Minus best 1 bet	13	$-10.82	-83.2%
Minus best 2 bets	12	$-10.98	-91.5%
Minus best 5 bets	9	$-9.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	14	21.4%	4.44	$-9.83	-70.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	6	50.0%	$-1.83	-30.5%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	33.3%	$-1.01	-33.7%
Rank 2	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	7	14.3%	$-5.98	-85.4%
Rank 6+	3	33.3%	$-1.84	-61.3%

Based on 14 of 14 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	14	21.4%	$-9.83	-70.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	14	21.4%	$-9.83	-70.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
cowra	5	40.0%	$-2.82	-56.4%
dubbo	9	11.1%	$-7.01	-77.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	9	11.1%	$-7.01	-77.9%
Sat	5	40.0%	$-2.82	-56.4%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-12	dubbo	Panelli	1.99	+$0.99
2026-07-10	cowra	Moon Zone	1.16	+$0.16
2026-07-10	cowra	Lady Giovanna	1.02	+$0.02

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-10	cowra	Russian Ember	1.16	$-1.00
2026-07-12	dubbo	Bill Peyto	4.50	$-1.00
2026-07-12	dubbo	Harry	8.60	$-1.00
2026-07-12	dubbo	Adamana	2.10	$-1.00
2026-07-12	dubbo	Commando Jack	8.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.