Sky Racing - Colin Hodges

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (16 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 37.5% vs implied 35.9% (+1.6pp). Picks track market expectations. 221% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -28.5% on 14 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

37.5%

Avg Odds

3.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.31

ROI

+20.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.9%

Calibration Gap

+1.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	16	+$3.31	+20.7%
Minus best 1 bet	15	$-1.09	-7.3%
Minus best 2 bets	14	$-3.99	-28.5%
Minus best 5 bets	11	$-9.22	-83.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	16	37.5%	3.95	+$3.31	+20.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.22	-40.7%
2.0-3.0	5	40.0%	$-0.12	-2.4%
3.0-5.0	3	66.7%	+$4.25	+141.7%
5.0-8.0	4	25.0%	+$1.40	+35.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	16	37.5%	+$3.31	+20.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
dubbo	8	50.0%	+$6.77	+84.6%
cowra	8	25.0%	$-3.46	-43.2%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	8	25.0%	$-3.46	-43.2%
Fri	8	50.0%	+$6.77	+84.6%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-05	dubbo	Just On Fire	5.40	+$4.40
2026-03-05	dubbo	Dunedin	3.90	+$2.90
2026-03-05	dubbo	Bolo Miss	3.35	+$2.35
2026-03-08	cowra	Glowing Rapids	2.76	+$1.76
2026-03-05	dubbo	Inazuma Boy	2.12	+$1.12

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-08	cowra	Argyle Laird	12.00	$-1.00
2026-03-05	dubbo	Allusive Intent	6.40	$-1.00
2026-03-05	dubbo	Narmer	6.80	$-1.00
2026-03-08	cowra	Tartan Tiger	2.86	$-1.00
2026-03-08	cowra	Desirous	1.16	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.