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Julie Rowland
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 5.9% trails market-implied 28.7% by -22.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -72.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-100.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -33.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw -91.8%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -40.5% (-51.2% → -91.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.7% (-29.2% → -33.0%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-15.60
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-33.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 17 | $-15.60 | -91.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 16 | $-16.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 15 | $-15.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 12 | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 5 | 0.0% | 4.64 | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-05 | 7 | 0.0% | 8.10 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-06 | 3 | 33.3% | 3.80 | $-1.60 | -53.3% |
| 2026-07 | 2 | 0.0% | 5.05 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.60 | -53.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 50.0% | $-0.60 | -30.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 5 of 17 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.60 | -53.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 17 | 5.9% | $-15.60 | -91.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| gawler | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Fri | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-09 | mount gambier | Magnetic Chess | 1.40 | +$0.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-12 | gawler | Winning All Round | 1.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | gawler | Flyway | 13.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | murray bridge | Bohemian Angel | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | gawler | Fiabesca | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | murray bridge | Flash Alice | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.