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Julie Rowland
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 7.7% trails market-implied 25.1% by -17.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -100.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-77.5%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -28.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -89.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -19.2% (-70.4% → -89.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.4% (-36.2% → -28.8%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-11.65
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-28.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
25.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 13 | $-11.65 | -89.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 12 | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 11 | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 8 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 5 | 20.0% | 4.45 | $-3.65 | -73.0% |
| 2026-08 | 6 | 0.0% | 5.33 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-09 | 2 | 0.0% | 5.80 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 100.0% | +$0.35 | +35.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.65 | -55.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 12 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 11 | 9.1% | $-9.65 | -87.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 13 | 7.7% | $-11.65 | -89.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| strathalbyn | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.65 | -73.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-28 | strathalbyn | Navy Rok | 1.35 | +$0.35 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-18 | strathalbyn | Zerealm | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | strathalbyn | Dazelles | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-06 | ipswich | Hidden Bounty | 7.25 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | balaklava | A Time To Kill | 4.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-26 | bathurst | Gem Tycoon | 9.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.