RacingRant

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (2 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 50.0% beats market-implied 21.2% by +28.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -10.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw +47.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -16.1% (+63.1% → +47.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -13.4% (+2.7% → -10.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

7.47

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$0.94

ROI

+47.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-10.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

21.2%

Calibration Gap

+28.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	1	0.0%	12.00	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-07	1	100.0%	2.94	+$1.94	+194.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	100.0%	+$1.94	+194.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 1 of 2 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By source

(no source data)

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11		1. Benevac	2.94	+$1.94

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-27	rosehill	12. Spione	12.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.