RacingRant

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (42 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 26.8% by +6.6pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 585% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -17.8% on 40 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +19.5%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-15.8%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -5.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw +3.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +3 new bets · ROI: -15.5% (+19.0% → +3.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.5% (+1.0% → -5.5%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

4.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.47

ROI

+3.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-5.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

26.8%

Calibration Gap

+6.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	42	+$1.47	+3.5%
Minus best 1 bet	41	$-3.33	-8.1%
Minus best 2 bets	40	$-7.13	-17.8%
Minus best 5 bets	37	$-16.73	-45.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+19.5%

Prior 60d ROI

-15.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	3	0.0%	4.18	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-08	9	44.4%	5.27	+$4.95	+55.0%
2026-09	21	38.1%	4.18	+$1.19	+5.7%
2026-10	9	22.2%	4.51	$-1.67	-18.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.89	+89.0%
2.0-3.0	9	66.7%	+$4.25	+47.2%
3.0-5.0	20	30.0%	+$2.53	+12.6%
5.0-8.0	9	11.1%	$-3.20	-35.6%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	71.4%	+$7.02	+100.3%
Rank 3	3	33.3%	+$1.30	+43.3%
Rank 4-5	5	40.0%	+$1.04	+20.8%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 18 of 42 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	16	50.0%	+$8.36	+52.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	42	33.3%	+$1.47	+3.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
randwick	9	44.4%	+$5.13	+57.0%
rosehill	10	40.0%	+$2.64	+26.4%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 12 settled, place rate 41.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.50 (-12.5% ROI) on 12 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-03	randwick	13. Shraddha	5.80	+$4.80
2026-09-19	randwick	2. Golden Straand	4.80	+$3.80
2026-08-29	rosehill	6. Transcend	4.30	+$3.30
2026-09-30	rosehill	4. Think Itz You	4.30	+$3.30
2026-08-01		5. Felix Majestic	4.00	+$3.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-07		5. Lightning Glory	3.85	$-1.00
2026-09-09		2. Deep Pleasure	2.02	$-1.00
2026-07-25	randwick	3. Lugh	7.00	$-1.00
2026-09-05		6. Nimble Star	5.70	$-1.00
2026-10-03	randwick	1. Capitano	4.10	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.