Matt Welsh

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 60.0% beats market-implied 16.9% by +43.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 109% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -36.3% on 3 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +9.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +238.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +238.2% (+0.0% → +238.2%) · Shrunk ROI: +20.3% (-10.5% → +9.8%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Odds

19.98

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$11.91

ROI

+238.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+9.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

16.9%

Calibration Gap

+43.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	3	33.3%	30.00	+$4.00	+133.3%
2026-07	2	100.0%	4.96	+$7.91	+395.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.91	+91.0%
5.0-8.0	1	100.0%	+$6.00	+600.0%
8.0-15	1	100.0%	+$7.00	+700.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 2	1	100.0%	+$6.00	+600.0%
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$7.00	+700.0%
Rank 4-5	1	100.0%	+$0.91	+91.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 4 of 5 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	100.0%	+$13.00	+650.0%
Outside Zone	2	50.0%	$-0.09	-4.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	5	60.0%	+$11.91	+238.2%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$6.82 (+170.5% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11	caulfield	10. Ichnusa	8.00	+$7.00
2026-06-26	caulfield	11. Lucky Brook	7.00	+$6.00
2026-07-10	caulfield	2. Angels Fury	1.91	+$0.91

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-26	caulfield	16. Egyptian Dancer	28.00	$-1.00
2026-06-27		2. Sixteen Reasons	55.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.