Matt Welsh

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-09 04:52 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (1 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 100.0% beats market-implied 12.5% by +87.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +1.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw +700.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +461.8% (+238.2% → +700.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -8.9% (+9.8% → +1.0%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Odds

8.00

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$7.00

ROI

+700.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+1.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

12.5%

Calibration Gap

+87.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	1	100.0%	8.00	+$7.00	+700.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
8.0-15	1	100.0%	+$7.00	+700.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 3	1	100.0%	+$7.00	+700.0%

Based on 1 of 1 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$7.00	+700.0%

By source

(no source data)

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.40 (+140.5% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11	caulfield	10. Ichnusa	8.00	+$7.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
No losses

Generated 2026-10-09 04:52 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.