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David Taggart
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 21.8% vs implied 23.7% (-1.9pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -55.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+9.4%) — trend is declining.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -0.1% (-17.9% → -18.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.7% (-16.8% → -16.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-14.10
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 78 | $-14.10 | -18.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 77 | $-23.10 | -30.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 76 | $-28.10 | -37.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 73 | $-39.30 | -53.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 10 | 40.0% | 4.62 | +$4.55 | +45.5% |
| 2026-05 | 25 | 20.0% | 6.61 | $-2.95 | -11.8% |
| 2026-06 | 30 | 20.0% | 9.81 | $-10.80 | -36.0% |
| 2026-07 | 13 | 15.4% | 5.08 | $-4.90 | -37.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 42.9% | $-0.30 | -2.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 33 | 21.2% | $-8.80 | -26.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 25.0% | +$4.00 | +33.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 10 | 10.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| 15+ | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 20 | 25.0% | $-6.00 | -30.0% |
| Rank 2 | 12 | 25.0% | +$0.20 | +1.7% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.20 | +5.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 51 of 78 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 5 | 40.0% | +$6.00 | +120.0% |
| Outside Zone | 46 | 15.2% | $-26.60 | -57.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 78 | 21.8% | $-14.10 | -18.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 7 | 28.6% | +$2.10 | +30.0% |
| sandown | 5 | 20.0% | $-0.80 | -16.0% |
| randwick | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.60 | -52.0% |
| caulfield | 12 | 16.7% | $-6.15 | -51.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 3 | 66.7% | +$4.15 | +138.3% |
| Wed | 16 | 25.0% | $-1.55 | -9.7% |
| Thu | 5 | 40.0% | +$0.55 | +11.0% |
| Sat | 41 | 19.5% | $-6.35 | -15.5% |
| Sun | 13 | 7.7% | $-10.90 | -83.8% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-08 | morphettville | Fringes | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | flemington | Brillantezza | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | canterbury | Cap Saint Martin | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | mornington | The Devil In Her | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | sandown | Coeur Volante | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-01 | sandown | Off Their Perch | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | randwick | Petticoat | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | caulfield heath | Prestar | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | morphettville | Maracourt | 18.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | gosford | Thrice | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.