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David Taggart
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 18.2% trails market-implied 25.9% by -7.8pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -54.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-26.2%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -28.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -40.6%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -21.7% (-18.9% → -40.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -11.1% (-17.6% → -28.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-26.80
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-28.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
25.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 66 | $-26.80 | -40.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 65 | $-33.30 | -51.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 64 | $-37.30 | -58.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 61 | $-44.60 | -73.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 16 | 25.0% | 4.84 | +$1.80 | +11.2% |
| 2026-08 | 8 | 12.5% | 4.84 | $-4.50 | -56.2% |
| 2026-09 | 36 | 16.7% | 5.38 | $-21.30 | -59.2% |
| 2026-10 | 6 | 16.7% | 5.52 | $-2.80 | -46.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 18 | 38.9% | $-1.60 | -8.9% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 18 | 16.7% | $-7.70 | -42.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 17 | 11.8% | $-4.50 | -26.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 11 | 0.0% | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 26 | 23.1% | $-12.50 | -48.1% |
| Rank 2 | 15 | 40.0% | +$10.70 | +71.3% |
| Rank 3 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 66 of 66 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 15 | 13.3% | $-2.50 | -16.7% |
| Outside Zone | 51 | 19.6% | $-24.30 | -47.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 66 | 18.2% | $-26.80 | -40.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| rosehill | 10 | 30.0% | +$1.70 | +17.0% |
| flemington | 9 | 22.2% | $-0.80 | -8.9% |
| sandown | 13 | 23.1% | $-6.20 | -47.7% |
| warwick farm | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| caulfield | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 29 | 27.6% | $-7.60 | -26.2% |
| Fri | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Sat | 32 | 12.5% | $-14.20 | -44.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.18 (-4.5% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-18 | rosehill | Sneaky Pee Cee | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | flemington | Changing Colours | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | canterbury | Unstopabull | 3.60 | +$2.60 |
| 2026-08-26 | canterbury | Ruination | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
| 2026-10-02 | flemington | The Next Episode | 3.20 | +$2.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-10 | randwick | Petticoat | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | sandown | Gold Chariot | 2.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | sandown | Weapon Clear | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | sandown | Customer Service | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-25 | lismore | Whiskey Miss | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.