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David Taggart
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 24.5% vs implied 26.3% (-1.8pp). Picks track market expectations.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-10.11
Implied Win % (1/odds)
26.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 102 | $-10.11 | -9.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 101 | $-21.11 | -20.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 100 | $-30.11 | -30.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 97 | $-40.11 | -41.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 38 | 21.1% | 5.62 | $-5.31 | -14.0% |
| 2026-04 | 39 | 30.8% | 5.05 | $-1.85 | -4.7% |
| 2026-05 | 25 | 20.0% | 6.61 | $-2.95 | -11.8% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 24 | 45.8% | +$3.19 | +13.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 44 | 25.0% | $-6.30 | -14.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 13 | 7.7% | $-8.00 | -61.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 13 | 15.4% | +$9.00 | +69.2% |
| 15+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 50.0% | +$1.10 | +55.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 8 of 102 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 14.3% | $-3.90 | -55.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sen_tips | 102 | 24.5% | $-10.11 | -9.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| flemington | 6 | 33.3% | +$9.70 | +161.7% |
| rosehill | 8 | 37.5% | $-0.15 | -1.9% |
| sandown | 7 | 28.6% | $-0.30 | -4.3% |
| warwick farm | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.70 | -33.8% |
| echuca | 5 | 20.0% | $-2.76 | -55.2% |
| caulfield | 13 | 23.1% | $-3.80 | -29.2% |
| randwick | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 4 | 50.0% | +$1.80 | +45.0% |
| Wed | 24 | 33.3% | +$2.70 | +11.2% |
| Thu | 5 | 40.0% | +$0.55 | +11.0% |
| Sat | 42 | 21.4% | +$0.40 | +1.0% |
| Sun | 27 | 14.8% | $-15.56 | -57.6% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-27 | flemington | Pop Award | 12.00 | +$11.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | morphettville | Fringes | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | canterbury | Cap Saint Martin | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-03-15 | grafton | Rich Star | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | geelong | Soldier Boi | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-05 | mudgee | Transactions | 2.60 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-03-07 | stony creek | Saxon Blood | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-15 | yarra valley | Understudy | 2.15 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | caulfield heath | Prestar | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | morphettville | Maracourt | 18.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.