Sky Racing - Ben Walker

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.1% trails market-implied 40.5% by -12.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -32.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+3.3%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

135

Wins

Win Rate

28.1%

Avg Odds

4.06

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-21.91

ROI

-16.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

40.5%

Calibration Gap

-12.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	135	$-21.91	-16.2%
Minus best 1 bet	134	$-32.91	-24.6%
Minus best 2 bets	133	$-41.11	-30.9%
Minus best 5 bets	130	$-56.01	-43.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-32.8%

Prior 60d ROI

+3.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	33	27.3%	3.25	$-13.57	-41.1%
2026-04	65	27.7%	4.18	$-0.40	-0.6%
2026-05	37	29.7%	4.56	$-7.94	-21.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	35	42.9%	$-12.47	-35.6%
2.0-3.0	39	35.9%	$-5.34	-13.7%
3.0-5.0	30	10.0%	$-17.40	-58.0%
5.0-8.0	16	25.0%	+$7.10	+44.4%
8.0-15	10	20.0%	+$11.20	+112.0%
15+	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	8	50.0%	$-0.60	-7.5%
Rank 2	3	33.3%	+$2.20	+73.3%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 15 of 135 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.20	+160.0%
Outside Zone	13	30.8%	$-5.60	-43.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	135	28.1%	$-21.91	-16.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
wellington	7	42.9%	+$6.62	+94.6%
cowra	8	50.0%	+$3.20	+40.0%
narromine	7	57.1%	+$1.74	+24.9%
newcastle	6	33.3%	+$0.75	+12.5%
tamworth	16	18.8%	+$0.54	+3.4%
warren	5	40.0%	$-1.34	-26.8%
parkes	8	25.0%	$-1.40	-17.5%
orange	13	23.1%	$-2.04	-15.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	22	31.8%	$-0.89	-4.0%
Tue	13	38.5%	+$0.93	+7.2%
Fri	38	15.8%	$-11.10	-29.2%
Sat	11	27.3%	$-5.35	-48.6%
Sun	51	33.3%	$-5.50	-10.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-09	tamworth	King Kikau	12.00	+$11.00
2026-04-12	wellington	Chandon Star	9.20	+$8.20
2026-04-16	orange	A Boy Named Soo	7.00	+$6.00
2026-04-05	muswellbrook	Think Back	5.70	+$4.70
2026-05-02	dubbo	Zealands Princess	5.20	+$4.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-22	orange	Instead	2.48	$-1.00
2026-05-19	newcastle	General Soho	18.00	$-1.00
2026-03-14	dubbo	Mrs Bull	1.12	$-1.00
2026-03-05	dubbo	Zoysia	2.10	$-1.00
2026-04-30	muswellbrook	Third Base	2.52	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.