mmathews@racing.com

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (9 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 11.1% trails market-implied 35.4% by -24.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

11.1%

Avg Odds

3.22

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.05

ROI

-78.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

35.4%

Calibration Gap

-24.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	9	11.1%	3.22	$-7.05	-78.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	50.0%	$-0.05	-2.5%
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	9	11.1%	$-7.05	-78.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
penola	9	11.1%	$-7.05	-78.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sun	9	11.1%	$-7.05	-78.3%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-05	penola	Petit Eagle	1.95	+$0.95

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-05	penola	Whathappensinvegas	4.40	$-1.00
2026-04-05	penola	Over The Edge	1.90	$-1.00
2026-04-05	penola	Annihilate	3.50	$-1.00
2026-04-05	penola	Morlaix	2.10	$-1.00
2026-04-05	penola	El Paso Citie	2.35	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.