Michael Dumesny

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (9 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.2% trails market-implied 36.9% by -14.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -14.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw -25.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.2% (-16.8% → -25.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.8% (-14.1% → -14.8%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

22.2%

Avg Odds

3.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.25

ROI

-25.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

36.9%

Calibration Gap

-14.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	2	50.0%	2.10	+$0.35	+17.5%
2026-09	6	16.7%	4.10	$-1.60	-26.7%
2026-10	1	0.0%	2.50	$-1.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.65	-41.2%
3.0-5.0	2	50.0%	+$2.40	+120.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	4	25.0%	$-1.65	-41.2%
Rank 2	3	33.3%	+$1.40	+46.7%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 9 of 9 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	9	22.2%	$-2.25	-25.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	9	22.2%	$-2.25	-25.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	8	25.0%	$-1.25	-15.6%
Tue	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-14	newcastle	Maverick	4.40	+$3.40
2026-07-27	newcastle	Steely Zac	2.35	+$1.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-14	newcastle	Ifsbutsandbilycans	3.20	$-1.00
2026-10-06	menangle	Wills Way	2.50	$-1.00
2026-07-27	newcastle	Chlobro	1.85	$-1.00
2026-09-07	goulburn	Satellite Simba	2.70	$-1.00
2026-09-28	goulburn	Rockngrohl Dave	2.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.