Michael Dumesny

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 50.0% vs implied 51.8% (-1.8pp). Picks track market expectations.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Odds

2.00

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.05

ROI

-0.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

51.8%

Calibration Gap

-1.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	3	33.3%	1.97	$-1.45	-48.3%
2026-04	2	100.0%	2.20	+$2.40	+120.0%
2026-05	1	0.0%	1.70	$-1.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.45	-48.3%
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$1.40	+46.7%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	6	50.0%	$-0.05	-0.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
goulburn	5	60.0%	+$0.95	+19.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	50.0%	$-0.05	-0.8%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-27	goulburn	Krusty Krunch	2.40	+$1.40
2026-04-27	goulburn	Rocksie Rock	2.00	+$1.00
2026-03-30	goulburn	Happily	1.55	+$0.55

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-30	goulburn	Eye Can Ear Amour	2.60	$-1.00
2026-05-11	newcastle	Wat On Earth	1.70	$-1.00
2026-03-30	goulburn	Bam Bam Brook	1.75	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.