Michael Dumesny

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 36.4% trails market-implied 43.6% by -7.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -15.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw -24.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: +0.8% (-15.8% → -15.0%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

36.4%

Avg Odds

2.47

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.65

ROI

-24.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-15.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

43.6%

Calibration Gap

-7.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	11	$-2.65	-24.1%
Minus best 1 bet	10	$-4.15	-41.5%
Minus best 2 bets	9	$-5.55	-61.7%
Minus best 5 bets	6	$-6.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	2	100.0%	2.20	+$2.40	+120.0%
2026-05	1	0.0%	1.70	$-1.00	-100.0%
2026-06	8	25.0%	2.64	$-4.05	-50.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.55	-51.7%
2.0-3.0	5	60.0%	+$1.90	+38.0%
3.0-5.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	40.0%	$-1.05	-21.0%
Rank 2	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 8 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	8	25.0%	$-4.05	-50.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	11	36.4%	$-2.65	-24.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
newcastle	5	40.0%	$-1.05	-21.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	7	57.1%	+$1.35	+19.3%
Tue	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.70 (+70.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-15	newcastle	Sapphiresndiamonds	2.50	+$1.50
2026-04-27	goulburn	Krusty Krunch	2.40	+$1.40
2026-04-27	goulburn	Rocksie Rock	2.00	+$1.00
2026-06-01	newcastle	Hav Fun With That	1.45	+$0.45

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-23	menangle	Vincenzo	2.30	$-1.00
2026-05-11	newcastle	Wat On Earth	1.70	$-1.00
2026-06-23	wagga	Bettor Crunch	3.50	$-1.00
2026-06-01	newcastle	Next To Me Nz	3.00	$-1.00
2026-06-23	menangle	Lils Nightmare Nz	2.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.