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Kevin Casey
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (14 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 28.6% beats market-implied 22.8% by +5.8pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.
Bio & context
NSW form analyst with 17+ years of public tipping (since 2009). Racing.com + RSN927 contributor with a long-running track record on theGreatTipOff platform (8,000+ published tips). Pure form-analyst persona — no horse-ownership or trainer-connection flags surfaced in research, which is unusual among Australian racing tipsters and suggests less conflict-of-interest exposure than most.
New South Wales, AustraliaNSW form analyst — Racing.com / RSN927 contributor17 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- No horse-ownership or trainer-connection flags surfaced in research — unusual among AU tipsters. Either genuinely conflict-free OR research didn't surface it (confidence: medium).
Methodology: Form-based analysis with attention to track condition and rail position. Race-by-race selections rather than a top-down model. Long history on theGreatTipOff makes his record publicly verifiable.
Specialty: NSW thoroughbred racing — metro and country tracks
Public footprint
- Racing.com — form analyst contributor
- RSN927 (Radio Sport National) — NSW form analyst
- theGreatTipOff — 'Best Bets | NSW' (8,097+ tips since June 28, 2009)
- Twitter @Kev__Casey
Public track-record claims
- theGreatTipOff: 8,097+ published tips since 2009 — recent strike rates 10-50% per meeting (variable, mixed)
- Our system data: small sample of 34 settled bets at +68.5% ROI, top-2 contribution 39% (outlier-resistant)
Source: manual · last researched 2026-05-31
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -50.2% (+38.0% → -12.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -23.7% (+10.9% → -12.8%) · Verdict: ROI MISLEADING → STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-1.70
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-12.8%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
22.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 14 | $-1.70 | -12.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 13 | $-4.90 | -37.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 12 | $-7.60 | -63.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 9 | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 9 | 33.3% | 4.86 | $-0.90 | -10.0% |
| 2026-08 | 2 | 0.0% | 11.45 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-09 | 3 | 33.3% | 8.23 | +$1.20 | +40.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.40 | +46.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 50.0% | +$3.90 | +97.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 33.3% | +$0.70 | +23.3% |
| Rank 2 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 50.0% | +$2.60 | +43.3% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 14 of 14 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 10 | 40.0% | +$2.30 | +23.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 14 | 28.6% | $-1.70 | -12.1% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.30 | +130.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-06 | moree | Sort Cha Mess | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-07-16 | grafton | Lady Lucifer | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
| 2026-07-27 | swan hill | Wazza | 2.30 | +$1.30 |
| 2026-07-27 | swan hill | Wazza | 2.10 | +$1.10 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-12 | hamilton | Lisa Lass | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-27 | swan hill | Bozza | 10.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-10 | ballarat | Bring Me Power | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | ballarat | Tommyess | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | seymour | Sabertooth | 14.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.