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Kevin Casey

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict
PROMISING
Small sample (25 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 48.0% beats market-implied 25.0% by +23.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets
25
Wins
12
Win Rate
48.0%
Avg Odds
4.64
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$19.50
ROI
+78.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
25.0%
Calibration Gap
+23.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

SubsetNP/LROI
Full record25+$19.50+78.0%
Minus best 1 bet24+$15.00+62.5%
Minus best 2 bets23+$11.00+47.8%
Minus best 5 bets20$-0.20-1.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

MonthNWin %Avg OddsP/LROI
2026-03825.0%4.80$-0.40-5.0%
2026-041566.7%4.44+$21.90+146.0%
2026-0520.0%5.50$-2.00-100.0%

By odds bracket

OddsNWin %P/LROI
2.0-3.0475.0%+$3.00+75.0%
3.0-5.01060.0%+$12.00+120.0%
5.0-8.0933.3%+$6.50+72.2%
8.0-1520.0%$-2.00-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race RankNWin %P/LROI
Rank 310.0%$-1.00-100.0%
Rank 4-510.0%$-1.00-100.0%

Based on 2 of 25 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

SubsetNWin %P/LROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)10.0%$-1.00-100.0%
Outside Zone10.0%$-1.00-100.0%

By source

SourceNWin %P/LROI
sportsbet_racing2548.0%+$19.50+78.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

DayNWin %P/LROI
Tue1100.0%+$2.10+210.0%
Sun1100.0%+$1.15+115.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-04-07hamiltonCorro5.50+$4.50
2026-04-25narromineSmart Scud5.00+$4.00
2026-04-20muswellbrookSaratoga Power5.00+$4.00
2026-04-04randwickProfoundly4.80+$3.80
2026-03-07stony creekStewart4.40+$3.40

Biggest losses

DateVenueSelectionOddsP/L
2026-04-20swan hillWestern Lane6.50$-1.00
2026-04-20muswellbrookReady And Lucky3.80$-1.00
2026-04-20swan hillApple Eyes7.50$-1.00
2026-03-07stony creekJuice Box2.60$-1.00
2026-03-01tamworthCanny Prospect8.50$-1.00
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.