← Back to dashboard
Kevin Casey
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (22 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 27.3% beats market-implied 23.6% by +3.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 1432% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -41.9% on 20 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -33.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+27.8%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -8.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +2.9%.
Bio & context
NSW form analyst with 17+ years of public tipping (since 2009). Racing.com + RSN927 contributor with a long-running track record on theGreatTipOff platform (8,000+ published tips). Pure form-analyst persona — no horse-ownership or trainer-connection flags surfaced in research, which is unusual among Australian racing tipsters and suggests less conflict-of-interest exposure than most.
New South Wales, AustraliaNSW form analyst — Racing.com / RSN927 contributor17 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- No horse-ownership or trainer-connection flags surfaced in research — unusual among AU tipsters. Either genuinely conflict-free OR research didn't surface it (confidence: medium).
Methodology: Form-based analysis with attention to track condition and rail position. Race-by-race selections rather than a top-down model. Long history on theGreatTipOff makes his record publicly verifiable.
Specialty: NSW thoroughbred racing — metro and country tracks
Public footprint
- Racing.com — form analyst contributor
- RSN927 (Radio Sport National) — NSW form analyst
- theGreatTipOff — 'Best Bets | NSW' (8,097+ tips since June 28, 2009)
- Twitter @Kev__Casey
Public track-record claims
- theGreatTipOff: 8,097+ published tips since 2009 — recent strike rates 10-50% per meeting (variable, mixed)
- Our system data: small sample of 34 settled bets at +68.5% ROI, top-2 contribution 39% (outlier-resistant)
Source: manual · last researched 2026-05-31
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -53.4% (+56.3% → +2.9%) · Shrunk ROI: -26.8% (+18.6% → -8.2%) · Verdict: PROMISING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$0.63
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-8.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
23.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 22 | +$0.63 | +2.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 21 | $-4.39 | -20.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 20 | $-8.39 | -41.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 17 | $-14.85 | -87.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 7 | 57.1% | 4.59 | +$7.30 | +104.3% |
| 2026-05 | 2 | 0.0% | 5.50 | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-06 | 6 | 33.3% | 5.62 | +$2.33 | +38.8% |
| 2026-07 | 7 | 0.0% | 4.64 | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 100.0% | +$3.61 | +120.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 10 | 30.0% | +$6.02 | +60.2% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 25.0% | $-1.69 | -42.2% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | +$3.02 | +100.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 15 of 22 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 12 | 16.7% | $-3.67 | -30.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 22 | 27.3% | +$0.63 | +2.9% |
By venue
(no venue data with sufficient samples)
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sun | 1 | 100.0% | +$1.15 | +115.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-29 | ballarat | Whitson | 7.00 | +$5.02 |
| 2026-04-25 | narromine | Smart Scud | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | muswellbrook | Saratoga Power | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | warrnambool | Andy Win | 2.20 | +$1.31 |
| 2026-04-25 | narromine | Territory Style | 2.15 | +$1.15 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-20 | swan hill | Western Lane | 6.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-09 | donald | Freshwater Fox | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-12 | hamilton | Lisa Lass | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | muswellbrook | Ready And Lucky | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | swan hill | Apple Eyes | 7.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.