← Back to dashboard
Rebecca Hill
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.5% trails market-implied 30.5% by -5.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Bio & context
Rebecca Hill is a racing tipster operating primarily through TheGreatTipOff platform, with a focus on Queensland provincial tracks, particularly Rockhampton. She comes from a strong racing family—her father Bruce Hill is a licensed Gold Coast trainer, and her late grandfather Frank Hill trained both trotters and gallopers in New Zealand. She currently works for Proven Thoroughbreds in an ownership/administration role, managing raceday operations in Queensland and social media, which creates potential conflicts of interest given her dual role as both tipster and industry participant.
Queensland, Australia (Gold Coast)Independent tipster (TheGreatTipOff platform) / Racing industry professional (Proven Thoroughbreds)
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Father Bruce Hill is licensed trainer on Gold Coast - monitor tips on Bruce Hill-trained horses
- Works for Proven Thoroughbreds in ownership administration - potential conflict when tipping Proven Thoroughbreds horses
- Deep family racing connections may influence selections
Methodology: Form-based analysis with emphasis on track conditions, rail positions, race tempo, and jockey bookings. Tips show focus on horses suited to specific track profiles and those with economical runs in transit.
Specialty: Queensland provincial racing, particularly Rockhampton and regional Queensland tracks
Public footprint
- TheGreatTipOff platform tipster profile
- Potential social media: Twitter/X @bechill21, Instagram @bec_hill21 (not verified as racing-related)
Horse ownership / breeding
- Works for Proven Thoroughbreds syndicate in ownership/administration role - potential exposure to horses in their stable
Industry connections
- Father: Bruce Hill (licensed trainer, Gold Coast, Queensland)
- Employer: Proven Thoroughbreds (syndication/ownership group)
- Late grandfather: Frank Hill (trainer, New Zealand - trotters and gallopers)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.3% (-19.9% → -28.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.7% (-19.4% → -26.0%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-88.28
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-26.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 314 | $-88.28 | -28.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 313 | $-98.28 | -31.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 312 | $-103.28 | -33.1% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 309 | $-116.78 | -37.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 77 | 22.1% | 4.53 | $-24.63 | -32.0% |
| 2026-08 | 108 | 28.7% | 4.18 | $-14.80 | -13.7% |
| 2026-09 | 91 | 22.0% | 4.48 | $-35.85 | -39.4% |
| 2026-10 | 38 | 23.7% | 4.60 | $-13.00 | -34.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 34 | 52.9% | $-3.53 | -10.4% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 91 | 37.4% | $-7.45 | -8.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 98 | 18.4% | $-29.80 | -30.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 59 | 10.2% | $-26.50 | -44.9% |
| 8.0-15 | 26 | 3.8% | $-15.00 | -57.7% |
| 15+ | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 148 | 36.5% | $-23.48 | -15.9% |
| Rank 2 | 62 | 17.7% | $-22.80 | -36.8% |
| Rank 3 | 46 | 19.6% | $-6.50 | -14.1% |
| Rank 4-5 | 38 | 7.9% | $-15.50 | -40.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 20 | 0.0% | $-20.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 314 of 314 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 36 | 11.1% | $-15.00 | -41.7% |
| Outside Zone | 278 | 26.3% | $-73.28 | -26.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 314 | 24.5% | $-88.28 | -28.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| aquis beaudesert | 16 | 50.0% | +$12.25 | +76.6% |
| sportsbet mount isa | 11 | 54.5% | +$6.00 | +54.5% |
| kilcoy | 6 | 50.0% | +$3.00 | +50.0% |
| townsville | 7 | 28.6% | $-2.90 | -41.4% |
| birdsville | 6 | 16.7% | $-4.20 | -70.0% |
| ipswich | 41 | 26.8% | $-4.88 | -11.9% |
| gatton | 16 | 18.8% | $-5.15 | -32.2% |
| toowoomba | 9 | 11.1% | $-5.40 | -60.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| blackall | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| mackay | 21 | 28.6% | $-8.50 | -40.5% |
| picklebet park warwick | 13 | 15.4% | $-9.00 | -69.2% |
| sunshine coast | 19 | 21.1% | $-10.85 | -57.1% |
| eagle farm | 44 | 13.6% | $-26.50 | -60.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 35 | 34.3% | $-2.60 | -7.4% |
| Thu | 81 | 28.4% | $-4.58 | -5.7% |
| Fri | 82 | 23.2% | $-37.45 | -45.7% |
| Sat | 116 | 19.8% | $-43.65 | -37.6% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 21 settled, place rate 52.4%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-4.70 (-22.4% ROI) on 21 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-17 | aquis beaudesert | Little Vain | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | ipswich | Flying Vento | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | doomben | Esjay | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-08-27 | ipswich | The Torque Xpress | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-08-22 | doomben | Diamond Show | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-24 | ipswich | Weekend Spirit | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | aquis park gold coast | Lady Shotgun | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-26 | toowoomba | Amuseantes | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | aquis park gold coast | Grand Impact | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | picklebet park warwick | Kingsland | 2.80 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.