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Rebecca Hill
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 27.6% trails market-implied 31.1% by -3.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +17.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-28.1%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-33.77
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 319 | $-33.77 | -10.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 318 | $-49.77 | -15.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 317 | $-59.77 | -18.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 314 | $-80.27 | -25.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 86 | 23.3% | 4.45 | $-36.52 | -42.5% |
| 2026-04 | 113 | 26.5% | 4.31 | $-12.45 | -11.0% |
| 2026-05 | 120 | 31.7% | 4.23 | +$15.20 | +12.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 39 | 61.5% | +$0.68 | +1.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 78 | 29.5% | $-24.45 | -31.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 116 | 26.7% | $-2.00 | -1.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 55 | 12.7% | $-14.00 | -25.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 26 | 7.7% | $-6.00 | -23.1% |
| 15+ | 5 | 20.0% | +$12.00 | +240.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 19 | 31.6% | $-4.30 | -22.6% |
| Rank 2 | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.00 | -57.1% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 50.0% | +$7.20 | +180.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 5 | 40.0% | +$11.50 | +230.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 50.0% | +$9.00 | +450.0% |
Based on 37 of 319 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 10 | 20.0% | +$2.00 | +20.0% |
| Outside Zone | 27 | 37.0% | +$17.40 | +64.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 319 | 27.6% | $-33.77 | -10.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| aquis park gold coast poly | 8 | 62.5% | +$10.15 | +126.9% |
| townsville | 20 | 40.0% | +$7.48 | +37.4% |
| rockhampton | 14 | 42.9% | +$6.30 | +45.0% |
| sunshine coast poly track | 7 | 28.6% | +$3.50 | +50.0% |
| picklebet park warwick | 13 | 38.5% | +$1.55 | +11.9% |
| aquis park gold coast | 24 | 37.5% | +$1.45 | +6.0% |
| sportsbet longreach | 7 | 28.6% | +$0.70 | +10.0% |
| kilcoy | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.35 | +5.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| eagle farm | 70 | 20.0% | $-6.20 | -8.9% |
| sunshine coast | 12 | 16.7% | $-7.60 | -63.3% |
| ipswich | 49 | 26.5% | $-9.80 | -20.0% |
| mackay | 34 | 26.5% | $-12.30 | -36.2% |
| doomben | 34 | 8.8% | $-26.50 | -77.9% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 35 | 40.0% | +$7.15 | +20.4% |
| Tue | 14 | 35.7% | $-3.60 | -25.7% |
| Wed | 16 | 18.8% | $-10.20 | -63.7% |
| Thu | 66 | 33.3% | +$4.08 | +6.2% |
| Fri | 77 | 28.6% | $-12.35 | -16.0% |
| Sat | 111 | 19.8% | $-18.85 | -17.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.41 (+35.3% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-25 | eagle farm | Nodachi | 17.00 | +$16.00 |
| 2026-05-30 | eagle farm | Alalcance | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | rockhampton | Heartoni | 9.00 | +$8.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | sunshine coast poly track | Demarcay | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-05-30 | eagle farm | Bengal Diamond | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-02 | thangool | Ishotthedeputy | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-11 | doomben | Cote Atlantique | 4.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | sunshine coast poly track | Vredefort | 11.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | eagle farm | Mr Buster | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | picklebet park warwick | Prince Pier | 2.25 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.