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Brendan Delaney
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (51 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.4% vs implied 30.0% (-0.6pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -16.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-37.4%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -20.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -27.5%.
Since last weekly snapshot: +1 new bets · ROI: -4.5% (-23.0% → -27.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.3% (-18.0% → -20.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-14.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-20.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 51 | $-14.00 | -27.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 50 | $-18.00 | -36.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 49 | $-21.80 | -44.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 46 | $-30.70 | -66.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 13 | 30.8% | 4.06 | $-10.20 | -78.5% |
| 2026-05 | 7 | 14.3% | 5.69 | $-5.30 | -75.7% |
| 2026-06 | 16 | 31.2% | 4.99 | +$3.60 | +22.5% |
| 2026-07 | 15 | 33.3% | 3.62 | $-2.10 | -14.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 8 | 62.5% | +$0.40 | +5.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 8 | 50.0% | +$1.90 | +23.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 21 | 23.8% | $-5.30 | -25.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.00 | -66.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 17 | 47.1% | +$6.00 | +35.3% |
| Rank 2 | 6 | 16.7% | $-1.00 | -16.7% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 33.3% | +$1.50 | +50.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 31 of 51 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.00 | +150.0% |
| Outside Zone | 29 | 31.0% | $-1.50 | -5.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 51 | 29.4% | $-14.00 | -27.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| mornington | 7 | 42.9% | +$5.40 | +77.1% |
| casterton | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.05 | +0.8% |
| southside pakenham synthetic | 9 | 22.2% | $-1.80 | -20.0% |
| bet365 bairnsdale | 9 | 33.3% | $-2.15 | -23.9% |
| bet365 park kilmore | 7 | 57.1% | $-2.20 | -31.4% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 13 | 7.7% | $-13.30 | -102.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 31 | 25.8% | $-6.55 | -21.1% |
| Sat | 14 | 35.7% | $-7.50 | -53.6% |
| Sun | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.05 | +0.8% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.16 (+3.9% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-08 | mornington | Satin Diva | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-06-08 | mornington | The Devil In Her | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-07-05 | casterton | Shamex | 4.50 | +$3.50 |
| 2026-06-29 | southside pakenham synthe | All So Clear | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-07-13 | bet365 bairnsdale | Winter Grace | 3.20 | +$2.20 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | bet365 park kilmore | Skellig Rock | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | bet365 park kilmore | Qubella | 4.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | picklebet park wodonga | Biratu | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | southside pakenham synthe | Bossy Babe | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | southside pakenham synthe | Pierre Le Quill | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.