Brendan Delaney

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (23 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.7% trails market-implied 29.7% by -8.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -56.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-23.9%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -22.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -43.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -14.0% (-29.4% → -43.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.2% (-22.8% → -22.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

21.7%

Avg Odds

4.42

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-10.00

ROI

-43.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-22.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

29.7%

Calibration Gap

-8.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	23	$-10.00	-43.5%
Minus best 1 bet	22	$-13.20	-60.0%
Minus best 2 bets	21	$-15.40	-73.3%
Minus best 5 bets	18	$-18.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-56.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-23.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	9	33.3%	3.61	$-2.15	-23.9%
2026-08	14	14.3%	4.94	$-7.85	-56.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$1.60	+80.0%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-2.00	-50.0%
3.0-5.0	11	18.2%	$-3.60	-32.7%
5.0-8.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	12	33.3%	$-3.20	-26.7%
Rank 2	5	20.0%	$-0.80	-16.0%
Rank 3	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 23 of 23 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	21	23.8%	$-8.00	-38.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	23	21.7%	$-10.00	-43.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bet365 hamilton	7	28.6%	$-0.85	-12.1%
bet365 bairnsdale	9	33.3%	$-2.15	-23.9%
murtoa	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	9	33.3%	$-2.15	-23.9%
Fri	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Sat	7	28.6%	$-0.85	-12.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.30 (+65.0% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-01	bet365 hamilton	Octahedron	4.20	+$3.20
2026-07-13	bet365 bairnsdale	Winter Grace	3.20	+$2.20
2026-07-13	bet365 bairnsdale	My China Plate	2.00	+$1.00
2026-08-01	bet365 hamilton	Boss Boy	1.95	+$0.95
2026-07-13	bet365 bairnsdale	Crystal Jade	1.65	+$0.65

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-21	murtoa	Ideas Galore	10.00	$-1.00
2026-07-13	bet365 bairnsdale	Racetothebottom	3.70	$-1.00
2026-08-21	murtoa	Bakersbend	3.30	$-1.00
2026-08-21	murtoa	Bold Jester	2.50	$-1.00
2026-07-13	bet365 bairnsdale	Earthing	3.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.