Brendan Delaney

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (28 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 28.6% vs implied 30.9% (-2.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -77.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+4.4%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

28.6%

Avg Odds

4.49

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-15.15

ROI

-54.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.9%

Calibration Gap

-2.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	28	$-15.15	-54.1%
Minus best 1 bet	27	$-18.95	-70.2%
Minus best 2 bets	26	$-20.65	-79.4%
Minus best 5 bets	23	$-23.90	-103.9%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-77.5%

Prior 60d ROI

+4.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	21	33.3%	4.09	$-9.85	-46.9%
2026-05	7	14.3%	5.69	$-5.30	-75.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	71.4%	+$1.75	+25.0%
2.0-3.0	3	66.7%	+$2.30	+76.7%
3.0-5.0	9	11.1%	$-8.20	-91.1%
5.0-8.0	6	0.0%	$-8.00	-133.3%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	28	28.6%	$-15.15	-54.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
mornington	8	37.5%	+$0.35	+4.4%
bet365 park kilmore	7	57.1%	$-2.20	-31.4%
picklebet park wodonga	13	7.7%	$-13.30	-102.3%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	6	0.0%	$-8.00	-133.3%
Sat	14	35.7%	$-7.50	-53.6%
Sun	8	37.5%	+$0.35	+4.4%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-05	mornington	Wondering Spirit	4.80	+$3.80
2026-04-18	bet365 park kilmore	Paris Collection	2.70	+$1.70
2026-04-18	bet365 park kilmore	Bit Of Shoosh	2.60	+$1.60
2026-04-18	bet365 park kilmore	Shotaro	1.85	+$0.85
2026-04-05	mornington	Pol Rogeur	1.80	+$0.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-18	bet365 park kilmore	Skellig Rock	4.20	$-3.00
2026-04-18	bet365 park kilmore	Qubella	4.20	$-3.00
2026-04-20	picklebet park wodonga	Biratu	5.00	$-3.00
2026-05-16	picklebet park wodonga	Determinato	1.90	$-1.00
2026-05-16	picklebet park wodonga	Sly Cascata	6.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.