Amanda Rando

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (33 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.3% trails market-implied 43.1% by -9.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +11.1%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-36.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -17.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -23.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +12.9% (-36.2% → -23.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +10.1% (-27.2% → -17.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

4.93

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.70

ROI

-23.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-17.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

43.1%

Calibration Gap

-9.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	33	$-7.70	-23.3%
Minus best 1 bet	32	$-14.20	-44.4%
Minus best 2 bets	31	$-17.10	-55.2%
Minus best 5 bets	28	$-20.30	-72.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+11.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-36.2%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	7	0.0%	5.64	$-7.00	-100.0%
2026-05	11	36.4%	4.68	$-5.35	-48.6%
2026-06	11	54.5%	4.70	+$1.15	+10.5%
2026-07	4	25.0%	4.97	+$3.50	+87.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	14	57.1%	$-3.00	-21.4%
2.0-3.0	4	25.0%	$-1.10	-27.5%
3.0-5.0	5	20.0%	$-1.10	-22.0%
5.0-8.0	4	25.0%	+$3.50	+87.5%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	9	66.7%	$-1.00	-11.1%
Rank 2	3	66.7%	+$3.80	+126.7%
Rank 4-5	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	50.0%	+$5.50	+275.0%

Based on 18 of 33 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	18	50.0%	+$4.30	+23.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	33	33.3%	$-7.70	-23.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
menangle	16	50.0%	+$4.80	+30.0%
newcastle	5	40.0%	$-2.15	-43.0%
penrith	10	10.0%	$-8.35	-83.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	5	40.0%	$-2.15	-43.0%
Tue	16	50.0%	+$4.80	+30.0%
Thu	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
Fri	5	20.0%	$-3.35	-67.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-07	menangle	Captain Bart	7.50	+$6.50
2026-06-02	menangle	Sky Blu	3.90	+$2.90
2026-06-02	menangle	Classic Mission Nz	2.90	+$1.90
2026-05-15	newcastle	Lochinvar Marcello	1.65	+$0.65
2026-06-08	penrith	Royal Vincent	1.65	+$0.65

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-12	menangle	Montalbano	4.80	$-1.00
2026-04-28	menangle	Action Major Nz	14.00	$-1.00
2026-05-01	newcastle	Sugar Pie Honey	1.45	$-1.00
2026-05-15	wagga	Millwood Grace Nz	19.00	$-1.00
2026-04-23	penrith	Quiet Storm	1.65	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.