Amanda Rando

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Small sample (46 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 45.7% vs implied 43.8% (+1.8pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +25.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-47.9%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -9.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -4.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +6.1% (-10.9% → -4.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.6% (-11.7% → -9.1%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

45.7%

Avg Odds

4.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.19

ROI

-4.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-9.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

43.8%

Calibration Gap

+1.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	46	$-2.19	-4.8%
Minus best 1 bet	45	$-7.69	-17.1%
Minus best 2 bets	44	$-12.19	-27.7%
Minus best 5 bets	41	$-17.29	-42.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+25.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-47.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	5	40.0%	7.22	$-0.80	-16.0%
2026-08	15	33.3%	5.15	$-3.81	-25.4%
2026-09	26	53.8%	3.02	+$2.42	+9.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	18	83.3%	+$3.71	+20.6%
2.0-3.0	11	27.3%	$-4.10	-37.3%
3.0-5.0	7	14.3%	$-3.80	-54.3%
5.0-8.0	6	33.3%	+$6.00	+100.0%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
15+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	19	68.4%	$-0.64	-3.4%
Rank 2	13	38.5%	+$1.35	+10.4%
Rank 3	6	33.3%	$-1.40	-23.3%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$4.50	+225.0%
Rank 6+	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%

Based on 46 of 46 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.50	+175.0%
Outside Zone	44	45.5%	$-5.69	-12.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	46	45.7%	$-2.19	-4.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
penrith	11	45.5%	$-0.05	-0.5%
menangle	20	45.0%	$-1.23	-6.2%
wagga	9	44.4%	$-3.21	-35.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	3	66.7%	+$4.00	+133.3%
Tue	20	45.0%	$-1.23	-6.2%
Wed	2	50.0%	$-0.70	-35.0%
Thu	11	45.5%	$-0.05	-0.5%
Fri	10	40.0%	$-4.21	-42.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.30 (+30.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-15	menangle	Fasting	6.50	+$5.50
2026-08-31	newcastle	Lookin Good Margie	5.50	+$4.50
2026-09-17	penrith	Captains Delight	3.20	+$2.20
2026-07-30	penrith	Alta Sierra	2.60	+$1.60
2026-09-17	penrith	Bettorlightem Up	2.30	+$1.30

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-07	wagga	Change Tact Nz	2.90	$-1.00
2026-09-29	menangle	Vespa Stride	7.50	$-1.00
2026-08-04	menangle	Moops	34.00	$-1.00
2026-09-11	wagga	Gocciadoro	2.00	$-1.00
2026-08-18	menangle	Captain Groove	7.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.