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Glenn Ingram
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 45.5% beats market-implied 29.3% by +16.2pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 185% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -25.8% on 9 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +24.8%.
Bio & context
Glenn Ingram, known as "The Bald Eagle," is a form analyst for RSN Racing (RSN927) based in Victoria. He specializes in trial-based analysis, producing "The Trial Files" / "Trial Tracker" segments focusing on jump-outs and trial performances to identify betting opportunities. He owns a share in the mare High Emocean trained by Ciaron Maher Racing, creating a potential conflict when tipping horses from that stable.
Victoria, AustraliaForm Analyst, RSN Racing6 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns share in High Emocean trained by Ciaron Maher Racing - monitor tips on Ciaron Maher-trained runners for potential bias
- Previously mentioned purchasing yearling shares (2022 Twitter) - may have other undisclosed ownership interests
Methodology: Trial-focused form analysis — monitors jump-outs and barrier trials to identify horses showing improvement or readiness to race. Provides weekly betting plays based on trial performances.
Specialty: Victorian racing, trial analysis
Public footprint
- Twitter: @theeaglebald
- RSN Racing radio segments (The Trial Files / Trial Tracker)
- Weekly podcasts on RSN Racing Pulse with Michael Felgate
- TheGreatTipOff.com tipping platform
- RSN927 live race previews
Horse ownership / breeding
- High Emocean (mare trained by Ciaron Maher Racing) - mentioned ownership in November 2022
Industry connections
- Ciaron Maher Racing (co-owner of horse trained by stable)
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff article (February 2022) claimed 81% profit on turnover and $2,800 cash profit over 6 months - marketing claim, platform-validated but timeframe-specific
- TheGreatTipOff profile showed $1,590 profit from $100 bets over 365 days at Caulfield - marketing claim
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +12.1% (+12.7% → +24.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.0% (-3.2% → -6.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.73
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-6.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 11 | +$2.73 | +24.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 10 | +$0.08 | +0.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 9 | $-2.32 | -25.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 6 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 3 | 33.3% | 4.27 | +$0.65 | +21.7% |
| 2026-07 | 8 | 50.0% | 3.83 | +$2.08 | +26.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2.0-3.0 | 3 | 100.0% | +$3.68 | +122.7% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 50.0% | +$3.05 | +76.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 6 | 83.3% | +$7.73 | +128.8% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 11 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 71.4% | +$6.73 | +96.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hub_playwright | 11 | 45.5% | +$2.73 | +24.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ballarat | 6 | 66.7% | +$5.71 | +95.2% |
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.14 (+38.0% ROI) on 3 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-30 | ballarat | 5. Spirited Defence | 3.65 | +$2.65 |
| 2026-07-02 | ballarat | 2. Jennyanydots | 3.40 | +$2.40 |
| 2026-07-14 | ballarat | 2. Surreal I Am | 2.50 | +$1.50 |
| 2026-07-12 | ballarat | 7. Salizou | 2.16 | +$1.16 |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | 6. Luna Cat | 2.02 | +$1.02 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-05 | bendigo | 13. Ginas A Star | 5.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | ballarat | 6. Packers Journey | 6.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | pakenham | 7. Love Sparkles | 5.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | caulfield | 6. Luna Cat | 5.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | bairnsdale | 4. I Said So | 3.25 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.