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Glenn Ingram
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.4% vs implied 31.6% (-2.2pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -40.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-23.9%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -27.5%.
Bio & context
Glenn Ingram, known as "The Bald Eagle," is a form analyst for RSN Racing (RSN927) based in Victoria. He specializes in trial-based analysis, producing "The Trial Files" / "Trial Tracker" segments focusing on jump-outs and trial performances to identify betting opportunities. He owns a share in the mare High Emocean trained by Ciaron Maher Racing, creating a potential conflict when tipping horses from that stable.
Victoria, AustraliaForm Analyst, RSN Racing6 yrs
⚠ Conflict / insider flags
- Owns share in High Emocean trained by Ciaron Maher Racing - monitor tips on Ciaron Maher-trained runners for potential bias
- Previously mentioned purchasing yearling shares (2022 Twitter) - may have other undisclosed ownership interests
Methodology: Trial-focused form analysis — monitors jump-outs and barrier trials to identify horses showing improvement or readiness to race. Provides weekly betting plays based on trial performances.
Specialty: Victorian racing, trial analysis
Public footprint
- Twitter: @theeaglebald
- RSN Racing radio segments (The Trial Files / Trial Tracker)
- Weekly podcasts on RSN Racing Pulse with Michael Felgate
- TheGreatTipOff.com tipping platform
- RSN927 live race previews
Horse ownership / breeding
- High Emocean (mare trained by Ciaron Maher Racing) - mentioned ownership in November 2022
Industry connections
- Ciaron Maher Racing (co-owner of horse trained by stable)
Public track-record claims
- TheGreatTipOff article (February 2022) claimed 81% profit on turnover and $2,800 cash profit over 6 months - marketing claim, platform-validated but timeframe-specific
- TheGreatTipOff profile showed $1,590 profit from $100 bets over 365 days at Caulfield - marketing claim
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-10
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -9.8% (-17.7% → -27.5%) · Shrunk ROI: -5.6% (-15.7% → -21.3%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-18.69
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-21.3%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.6%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 68 | $-18.69 | -27.5% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 67 | $-25.09 | -37.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 66 | $-26.91 | -40.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 63 | $-31.95 | -50.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 22 | 22.7% | 4.09 | $-9.90 | -45.0% |
| 2026-08 | 25 | 28.0% | 4.68 | $-8.24 | -33.0% |
| 2026-09 | 17 | 41.2% | 3.80 | +$2.05 | +12.1% |
| 2026-10 | 4 | 25.0% | 3.55 | $-2.60 | -65.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 7 | 71.4% | +$1.19 | +17.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 24 | 58.3% | +$9.72 | +40.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 16 | 0.0% | $-16.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 15 | 6.7% | $-7.60 | -50.7% |
| 8.0-15 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 33 | 48.5% | +$1.15 | +3.5% |
| Rank 2 | 9 | 22.2% | +$0.72 | +8.0% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 13 | 15.4% | $-7.56 | -58.2% |
| Rank 6+ | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 65 of 68 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 9 | 11.1% | $-1.60 | -17.8% |
| Outside Zone | 56 | 33.9% | $-14.09 | -25.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| hub_playwright | 68 | 29.4% | $-18.69 | -27.5% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| caulfield | 7 | 57.1% | +$2.58 | +36.9% |
| ballarat | 9 | 55.6% | +$2.14 | +23.8% |
| sandown | 8 | 37.5% | $-0.88 | -11.0% |
| pakenham | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
(no day-of-week data)
Place market
Live place-capture data: 22 settled, place rate 72.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$7.77 (+35.3% ROI) on 22 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-04 | mornington | 4. Coronationhercules | 7.40 | +$6.40 |
| 2026-07-22 | sandown | 11. Perfect Ten | 2.82 | +$1.82 |
| 2026-08-13 | | 4. Turnaquid | 2.80 | +$1.80 |
| 2026-08-15 | caulfield | 5. Natural Fling | 2.64 | +$1.64 |
| 2026-07-29 | sandown | 7. Blue Willow | 2.60 | +$1.60 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-09-29 | tatura | 8. Asmita | 3.35 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | pakenham | 1. Loaded | 2.58 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-22 | sandown | 7. Soju | 6.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | flemington | 15. Gold Medallist | 7.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-01 | | 6. Smokin Princess | 9.40 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.