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Royce Newton
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Small sample (26 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.3% beats market-implied 36.3% by +6.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 735% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -55.8% on 24 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$2.11
Implied Win % (1/odds)
36.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 26 | +$2.11 | +8.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 25 | $-9.59 | -38.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 24 | $-13.39 | -55.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 21 | $-20.65 | -98.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 7 | 57.1% | 2.82 | +$0.55 | +7.9% |
| 2026-05 | 19 | 36.8% | 4.31 | +$1.56 | +8.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 9 | 66.7% | $-2.89 | -32.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 4 | 50.0% | $-1.70 | -42.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 7 | 42.9% | +$12.70 | +181.4% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -300.0% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 100.0% | +$3.80 | +380.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 7 of 26 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 5 | 20.0% | $-6.20 | -124.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 26 | 42.3% | +$2.11 | +8.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| kalgoorlie | 26 | 42.3% | +$2.11 | +8.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Sun | 26 | 42.3% | +$2.11 | +8.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Monty Zoomer | 4.40 | +$11.70 |
| 2026-05-24 | kalgoorlie | Close At Hand | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Slippery Fish | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Royal Guardian | 1.80 | +$2.76 |
| 2026-04-12 | kalgoorlie | Stylin' | 2.30 | +$1.30 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Joyhouse Rock | 4.60 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | kalgoorlie | Just Sublime | 2.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | kalgoorlie | Dreamers Never Die | 1.95 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-24 | kalgoorlie | Monty Zoomer | 1.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-10 | kalgoorlie | Lavish Charm | 1.95 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.