Sky Racing - Dan Missen

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 33.8% trails market-implied 42.0% by -8.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -33.2%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-12.8%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

142

Wins

Win Rate

33.8%

Avg Odds

3.12

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-30.06

ROI

-21.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

42.0%

Calibration Gap

-8.2pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	142	$-30.06	-21.2%
Minus best 1 bet	141	$-33.76	-23.9%
Minus best 2 bets	140	$-37.16	-26.5%
Minus best 5 bets	137	$-44.96	-32.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-33.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-12.8%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	43	44.2%	3.03	+$2.89	+6.7%
2026-04	68	32.4%	2.90	$-19.48	-28.6%
2026-05	31	22.6%	3.75	$-13.47	-43.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	38	52.6%	$-5.29	-13.9%
2.0-3.0	49	40.8%	+$0.78	+1.6%
3.0-5.0	35	22.9%	$-5.55	-15.9%
5.0-8.0	16	0.0%	$-16.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	6	50.0%	$-0.39	-6.5%
Rank 2	4	25.0%	$-1.70	-42.5%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	4	25.0%	+$0.70	+17.5%

Based on 15 of 142 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	15	33.3%	$-2.39	-15.9%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	142	33.8%	$-30.06	-21.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
moree	6	83.3%	+$5.75	+95.8%
narromine	7	57.1%	+$1.43	+20.4%
dubbo	9	22.2%	$-2.87	-31.9%
wyong	7	28.6%	$-3.14	-44.9%
gunnedah	9	33.3%	$-3.39	-37.7%
wellington	14	28.6%	$-4.41	-31.5%
muswellbrook	7	14.3%	$-5.04	-72.0%
tamworth	62	38.7%	$-5.27	-8.5%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	14	35.7%	$-3.96	-28.3%
Tue	13	53.8%	+$3.91	+30.1%
Thu	48	37.5%	$-1.81	-3.8%
Fri	22	27.3%	$-9.65	-43.9%
Sat	7	28.6%	$-3.14	-44.9%
Sun	38	26.3%	$-15.41	-40.6%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.71 (-35.5% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-21	tamworth	Grosso Naso	4.70	+$3.70
2026-03-14	dubbo	Narmer	4.40	+$3.40
2026-03-25	tamworth	Lachies Ideal	3.85	+$2.85
2026-04-25	narromine	Strassman	3.50	+$2.50
2026-03-11	tamworth	Thomas Royal	3.35	+$2.45

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-28	quirindi	Lord Of The Sun	6.40	$-1.00
2026-03-01	tamworth	Equitable	1.77	$-1.00
2026-04-25	narromine	Chappolicious	2.28	$-1.00
2026-04-09	wellington	Territory Style	1.12	$-1.00
2026-04-30	muswellbrook	Dr Hook	1.99	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.