← Back to dashboard
Sky Racing - Dan Missen
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 35.3% trails market-implied 40.5% by -5.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI +43.0%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-26.3%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Dan Missen is a form analyst for Sky Racing Australia, specializing in New South Wales thoroughbred racing with a particular focus on country and regional NSW tracks. He is part of Sky Racing's team of expert tipsters who provide daily selections across Australian racing. His public footprint is minimal with limited biographical information or social media presence available.
New South Wales, AustraliaForm analyst / tipster
Methodology: Form-based analysis - Sky Racing describes their analysts as having "intimate knowledge of their patch" and conducting comprehensive race analysis considering track conditions, form, and weather updates
Specialty: NSW country and regional thoroughbred racing
Public footprint
- Tips published on Sky Racing platform
- Tips aggregated on third-party platforms like The Great Tipoff
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-07-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +6.4% (-20.4% → -14.1%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.3% (-19.0% → -13.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-14.34
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-13.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
40.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 102 | $-14.34 | -14.1% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 101 | $-19.04 | -18.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 100 | $-22.74 | -22.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 97 | $-31.84 | -32.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 40 | 40.0% | 2.94 | $-4.93 | -12.3% |
| 2026-05 | 31 | 22.6% | 3.75 | $-13.47 | -43.5% |
| 2026-06 | 25 | 40.0% | 2.85 | $-2.88 | -11.5% |
| 2026-07 | 6 | 50.0% | 3.73 | +$6.94 | +115.7% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 24 | 62.5% | +$0.17 | +0.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 41 | 34.1% | $-6.66 | -16.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 22 | 27.3% | +$1.45 | +6.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 12 | 8.3% | $-6.30 | -52.5% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 24 | 41.7% | $-4.67 | -19.5% |
| Rank 2 | 8 | 37.5% | $-2.16 | -27.0% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 20.0% | +$0.70 | +14.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 7 | 57.1% | +$9.80 | +140.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 46 of 102 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 50.0% | +$3.70 | +185.0% |
| Outside Zone | 44 | 38.6% | $-2.03 | -4.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 102 | 35.3% | $-14.34 | -14.1% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| narromine | 7 | 57.1% | +$1.43 | +20.4% |
| moree | 7 | 42.9% | +$0.24 | +3.4% |
| mount gambier | 6 | 50.0% | $-0.29 | -4.8% |
| tamworth | 52 | 36.5% | $-1.17 | -2.2% |
| gunnedah | 9 | 33.3% | $-3.39 | -37.7% |
| muswellbrook | 7 | 14.3% | $-5.04 | -72.0% |
| quirindi | 14 | 21.4% | $-6.12 | -43.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.28 | -61.1% |
| Tue | 20 | 40.0% | $-1.89 | -9.5% |
| Thu | 39 | 41.0% | +$6.53 | +16.7% |
| Fri | 14 | 21.4% | $-8.82 | -63.0% |
| Sat | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.92 | -65.3% |
| Sun | 16 | 43.8% | $-1.96 | -12.2% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 80.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.43 (+28.6% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-09 | tamworth | Letsgetrowdy | 5.70 | +$4.70 |
| 2026-05-21 | tamworth | Grosso Naso | 4.70 | +$3.70 |
| 2026-07-09 | tamworth | Avenger | 4.30 | +$3.30 |
| 2026-06-11 | tamworth | Next To Me | 4.10 | +$3.10 |
| 2026-06-01 | moree | Off The Scale | 3.70 | +$2.70 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-28 | quirindi | Lord Of The Sun | 6.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | narromine | Chappolicious | 2.28 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-01 | moree | Zamalek | 1.96 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | muswellbrook | Dr Hook | 1.99 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | tamworth | Hey Dude | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.