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Grace Hayes
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 31.7% vs implied 34.2% (-2.5pp). Picks track market expectations.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-10.54
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.2%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 63 | $-10.54 | -16.7% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 62 | $-15.54 | -25.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 61 | $-20.04 | -32.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 58 | $-27.65 | -47.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 22 | 40.9% | 3.62 | $-2.14 | -9.7% |
| 2026-05 | 41 | 26.8% | 4.08 | $-8.40 | -20.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 13 | 53.8% | $-2.75 | -21.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 15 | 53.3% | +$5.31 | +35.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 22 | 13.6% | $-11.60 | -52.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 7 | 28.6% | +$4.50 | +64.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 8 | 50.0% | +$1.00 | +12.5% |
| Rank 2 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 50.0% | +$4.00 | +200.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 16 of 63 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 14 | 35.7% | +$1.00 | +7.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 63 | 31.7% | $-10.54 | -16.7% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| southside cranbourne | 16 | 37.5% | $-1.29 | -8.1% |
| southside pakenham | 47 | 29.8% | $-9.25 | -19.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 6 | 50.0% | $-0.85 | -14.2% |
| Fri | 57 | 29.8% | $-9.69 | -17.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.84 (-42.0% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-29 | southside pakenham | Promised Land | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | southside cranbourne | Beautifully | 5.50 | +$4.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | southside pakenham | Zunna | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-05-15 | southside pakenham | Obambulate | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
| 2026-04-17 | southside cranbourne | Choir Point | 2.15 | +$2.31 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | southside cranbourne | Set Me Free | 1.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | southside pakenham | Just For Kicks | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | southside pakenham | On The Prowl | 3.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | southside cranbourne | Jetsetter Jack | 1.95 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | southside pakenham | Yes I Know | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.