Grace Hayes

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.9% vs implied 30.6% (-0.7pp). Picks track market expectations.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +7.7% (-12.0% → -4.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.0% (-12.3% → -7.3%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

29.9%

Avg Odds

4.40

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.19

ROI

-4.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-7.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

30.6%

Calibration Gap

-0.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	97	$-4.19	-4.3%
Minus best 1 bet	96	$-15.19	-15.8%
Minus best 2 bets	95	$-20.19	-21.3%
Minus best 5 bets	92	$-31.49	-34.2%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-4.9%

Prior 60d ROI

-3.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	14	57.1%	4.08	+$6.26	+44.7%
2026-05	41	26.8%	4.08	$-8.40	-20.5%
2026-06	24	25.0%	4.97	+$5.25	+21.9%
2026-07	18	22.2%	4.66	$-7.30	-40.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	11	54.5%	$-0.35	-3.2%
2.0-3.0	24	50.0%	+$5.76	+24.0%
3.0-5.0	33	21.2%	$-9.10	-27.6%
5.0-8.0	16	18.8%	+$0.50	+3.1%
8.0-15	12	8.3%	+$0.00	+0.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	29	37.9%	+$0.25	+0.9%
Rank 2	9	11.1%	$-6.30	-70.0%
Rank 3	8	12.5%	$-3.00	-37.5%
Rank 4-5	10	20.0%	+$8.00	+80.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 58 of 97 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	10	10.0%	$-5.00	-50.0%
Outside Zone	48	29.2%	+$1.95	+4.1%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	97	29.9%	$-4.19	-4.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sale	8	37.5%	+$11.05	+138.1%
southside cranbourne	8	62.5%	+$7.11	+88.9%
bet365 swan hill	8	37.5%	+$2.20	+27.5%
bendigo	9	22.2%	$-3.60	-40.0%
flemington	9	22.2%	$-3.70	-41.1%
ladbrokes geelong	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
southside pakenham	47	29.8%	$-9.25	-19.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Thu	6	50.0%	$-0.85	-14.2%
Fri	57	28.1%	$-9.29	-16.3%
Sat	9	22.2%	$-3.70	-41.1%
Sun	25	32.0%	+$9.65	+38.6%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 60.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.27 (-25.5% ROI) on 5 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-28	sale	Beechworth	12.00	+$11.00
2026-05-29	southside pakenham	Promised Land	6.00	+$5.00
2026-04-17	southside cranbourne	Beautifully	5.50	+$4.50
2026-06-28	sale	Tan Tat Art	5.00	+$4.00
2026-05-15	southside pakenham	Zunna	3.80	+$2.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-07	bet365 swan hill	Arizona Luck	10.00	$-1.00
2026-04-23	southside pakenham	Just For Kicks	3.50	$-1.00
2026-06-19	ladbrokes geelong	Kagemusha	7.50	$-1.00
2026-05-08	southside pakenham	On The Prowl	3.50	$-1.00
2026-05-15	southside pakenham	Yes I Know	2.70	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.