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Grace Hayes
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-03 22:12 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.0% vs implied 27.8% (+1.2pp). Picks track market expectations. 147% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -3.3% on 136 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +1.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw +6.9%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +15.3% (-8.3% → +6.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +10.8% (-9.2% → +1.6%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$9.55
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+1.6%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.8%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 138 | +$9.55 | +6.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 137 | +$1.55 | +1.1% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 136 | $-4.45 | -3.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 133 | $-20.45 | -15.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 18 | 38.9% | 4.19 | +$3.60 | +20.0% |
| 2026-08 | 40 | 17.5% | 4.81 | $-10.05 | -25.1% |
| 2026-09 | 63 | 30.2% | 4.57 | +$0.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-10 | 17 | 41.2% | 6.65 | +$15.80 | +92.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 15 | 60.0% | $-0.00 | -0.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 22 | 31.8% | $-5.45 | -24.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 45 | 24.4% | $-5.00 | -11.1% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 39 | 30.8% | +$28.00 | +71.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 16 | 6.2% | $-7.00 | -43.8% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 54 | 37.0% | $-6.40 | -11.9% |
| Rank 2 | 36 | 30.6% | +$9.75 | +27.1% |
| Rank 3 | 25 | 28.0% | +$17.20 | +68.8% |
| Rank 4-5 | 15 | 13.3% | $-3.00 | -20.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 138 of 138 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 34 | 32.4% | +$30.00 | +88.2% |
| Outside Zone | 104 | 27.9% | $-20.45 | -19.7% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 138 | 29.0% | +$9.55 | +6.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| warrnambool | 7 | 57.1% | +$8.50 | +121.4% |
| mornington | 8 | 50.0% | +$5.20 | +65.0% |
| flemington | 29 | 24.1% | +$5.05 | +17.4% |
| betdeluxe warracknabeal | 7 | 42.9% | +$4.05 | +57.9% |
| southside pakenham synthetic | 7 | 42.9% | +$3.50 | +50.0% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 7 | 28.6% | +$2.40 | +34.3% |
| southside cranbourne | 6 | 50.0% | $-1.00 | -16.7% |
| caulfield | 44 | 25.0% | $-4.25 | -9.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 15 | 53.3% | +$13.70 | +91.3% |
| Fri | 20 | 40.0% | +$4.90 | +24.5% |
| Sat | 88 | 22.7% | $-6.65 | -7.6% |
| Sun | 15 | 26.7% | $-2.40 | -16.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 9 settled, place rate 55.6%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.30 (-14.5% ROI) on 9 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-10-03 | flemington | Stylish | 9.00 | +$8.00 |
| 2026-10-03 | flemington | Miss Waititi | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | betdeluxe warracknabeal | Thoughtful | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | southside pakenham synthe | Persian Caviar | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | ladbrokes geelong | Ocean Bay | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-08-28 | ladbrokes geelong | Simply Sassy | 3.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | flemington | Oliveanotherday | 1.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | betdeluxe warracknabeal | Apache Sunrise | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | caulfield | Shadhavar | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | caulfield | Private Eye | 3.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-03 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.