acepreviews

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-09-01 04:41 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (18 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 44.4% trails market-implied 54.1% by -9.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -14.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -18.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: +4 new bets · ROI: -8.7% (-10.1% → -18.7%) · Shrunk ROI: -2.2% (-12.4% → -14.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

44.4%

Avg Odds

1.90

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.37

ROI

-18.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

54.1%

Calibration Gap

-9.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	18	$-3.37	-18.7%
Minus best 1 bet	17	$-4.89	-28.8%
Minus best 2 bets	16	$-5.93	-37.1%
Minus best 5 bets	13	$-8.15	-62.7%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	3	33.3%	1.99	$-1.27	-42.3%
2026-08	15	46.7%	1.89	$-2.10	-14.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	12	50.0%	$-1.93	-16.1%
2.0-3.0	5	40.0%	$-0.44	-8.8%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	42.9%	$-2.08	-29.7%
Rank 2	6	33.3%	$-1.44	-24.0%
Rank 6+	5	60.0%	+$0.15	+3.0%

Based on 18 of 18 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	18	44.4%	$-3.37	-18.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
payload	18	44.4%	$-3.37	-18.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	8	25.0%	$-4.34	-54.2%
Wed	4	50.0%	+$0.30	+7.5%
Thu	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Fri	2	100.0%	+$1.37	+68.5%
Sat	2	100.0%	+$1.30	+65.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-12	Nakashima	2.52	+$1.52
2026-08-25	Bonzi	2.04	+$1.04
2026-08-19	De Minaur	1.78	+$0.78
2026-07-31	Brooksby	1.73	+$0.73
2026-08-13	Bejlek	1.71	+$0.71

Biggest losses

Date	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-26	Hijikata	1.72	$-1.00
2026-08-20	Paul	1.83	$-1.00
2026-08-18	Medvedev	1.61	$-1.00
2026-08-18	Walton	2.00	$-1.00
2026-08-25	Collignon	1.67	$-1.00

Generated 2026-09-01 04:41 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.