Paul Kelly

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (5 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.0% trails market-implied 25.7% by -5.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -14.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -32.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +3.8% (-35.8% → -32.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +2.7% (-17.4% → -14.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Odds

19.42

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-1.60

ROI

-32.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-14.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

25.7%

Calibration Gap

-5.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	2	0.0%	2.35	$-2.00	-100.0%
2026-08	2	0.0%	44.50	$-2.00	-100.0%
2026-09	1	100.0%	3.40	+$2.40	+240.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	1	100.0%	+$2.40	+240.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	2	50.0%	+$1.40	+70.0%

Based on 5 of 5 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	5	20.0%	$-1.60	-32.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	5	20.0%	$-1.60	-32.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	5	20.0%	$-1.60	-32.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-09-04	belmont	Yes I Know	3.40	+$2.40

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-08	belmont	Snowdome	8.00	$-1.00
2026-07-17	belmont	Want A Winner	2.50	$-1.00
2026-08-08	belmont	Cherry Can Run	81.00	$-1.00
2026-07-17	belmont	Westbound	2.20	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.