Paul Kelly

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (3 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.3% beats market-implied 23.7% by +9.7pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

5.17

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-0.50

ROI

-16.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.7%

Calibration Gap

+9.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	1	100.0%	2.50	+$1.50	+150.0%
2026-04	2	0.0%	6.50	$-2.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	1	100.0%	+$1.50	+150.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	3	33.3%	$-0.50	-16.7%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-31	ascot	Snitzalatte	2.50	+$1.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	ascot	Trio	7.00	$-1.00
2026-04-24	ascot	Soldanelle	6.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.