Paul Kelly

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (6 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 16.7% trails market-implied 20.3% by -3.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -70.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -26.4% (-43.6% → -70.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.6% (-18.5% → -19.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

16.7%

Avg Odds

9.23

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-4.20

ROI

-70.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-19.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

20.3%

Calibration Gap

-3.7pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

(insufficient data)

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	2	0.0%	6.50	$-2.00	-100.0%
2026-06	4	25.0%	10.60	$-2.20	-55.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	100.0%	+$0.80	+80.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	2	50.0%	$-0.20	-10.0%
Rank 6+	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 4 of 6 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	4	25.0%	$-2.20	-55.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	6	16.7%	$-4.20	-70.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-12	belmont	Swift Ruler	1.80	+$0.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	ascot	Trio	7.00	$-1.00
2026-06-19	belmont	Westbound	10.00	$-1.00
2026-06-19	belmont	The Calabrese	4.60	$-1.00
2026-06-12	belmont	Spank Appeal	26.00	$-1.00
2026-04-24	ascot	Soldanelle	6.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.