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Mark Wise
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 15.4% trails market-implied 27.1% by -11.7pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -100.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+12.5%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -16.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -30.8%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +34.6% (-65.4% → -30.8%) · Shrunk ROI: +14.3% (-30.9% → -16.7%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-4.00
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-16.7%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
27.1%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 13 | $-4.00 | -30.8% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 12 | $-10.00 | -83.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 11 | $-11.00 | -100.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 8 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.85 | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-05 | 2 | 50.0% | 9.00 | +$5.00 | +250.0% |
| 2026-06 | 6 | 0.0% | 5.58 | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| 2026-07 | 3 | 0.0% | 5.67 | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 2 | 50.0% | +$0.00 | +0.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 5 | 20.0% | +$2.00 | +40.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 9 of 13 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 13 | 15.4% | $-4.00 | -30.8% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| toowoomba | 6 | 16.7% | +$1.00 | +16.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Fri | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-15 | toowoomba | Luton Hoo | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | geraldton | Solar Crest | 2.00 | +$1.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-05 | toowoomba | Data Leak | 10.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-05 | toowoomba | Trooper Sam | 5.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | toowoomba | Rose Of Chantilly | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-06 | grafton | Kings Call | 2.90 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | geraldton | Southland | 1.70 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.