Mark Wise

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (11 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 9.1% trails market-implied 23.4% by -14.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -50.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: — · Shrunk ROI: +6.9% (-26.6% → -19.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

9.1%

Avg Odds

5.30

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-5.50

ROI

-50.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-19.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.4%

Calibration Gap

-14.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	11	$-5.50	-50.0%
Minus best 1 bet	10	$-10.00	-100.0%
Minus best 2 bets	9	$-9.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	6	$-6.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	4	25.0%	6.65	+$1.50	+37.5%
2026-08	4	0.0%	5.22	$-4.00	-100.0%
2026-09	3	0.0%	3.60	$-3.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
2.0-3.0	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	5	20.0%	+$0.50	+10.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	4	25.0%	+$1.50	+37.5%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 11 of 11 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.50	+175.0%
Outside Zone	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	11	9.1%	$-5.50	-50.0%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Sat	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-18	carnarvon	Daiyamondo	5.50	+$4.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-19	carnarvon	Cheeky Charlotte	13.00	$-1.00
2026-09-12	toowoomba	Kadall	4.20	$-1.00
2026-07-30	carnarvon	Corn Cob	5.50	$-1.00
2026-08-08	morphettville	Magic Will Reign	5.50	$-1.00
2026-09-11	toowoomba	Magritte	2.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.