Damian Watson

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (17 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 5.9% trails market-implied 19.5% by -13.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -18.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-100.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

5.9%

Avg Odds

8.68

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-8.00

ROI

-47.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

19.5%

Calibration Gap

-13.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	17	$-8.00	-47.1%
Minus best 1 bet	16	$-16.00	-100.0%
Minus best 2 bets	15	$-15.00	-100.0%
Minus best 5 bets	12	$-12.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-18.2%

Prior 60d ROI

-100.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	3	0.0%	5.50	$-3.00	-100.0%
2026-04	8	0.0%	10.76	$-8.00	-100.0%
2026-05	6	16.7%	7.50	+$3.00	+50.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
2.0-3.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
5.0-8.0	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	33.3%	+$6.00	+200.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sen_tips	17	5.9%	$-8.00	-47.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pakenham	6	16.7%	+$3.00	+50.0%
cranbourne	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Fri	17	5.9%	$-8.00	-47.1%

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-15	pakenham	Legio Ten	9.00	+$8.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	cranbourne	Dun Gracefully	7.50	$-1.00
2026-04-03	cranbourne	Maldini	4.20	$-1.00
2026-03-27	cranbourne	Croatian Art	6.50	$-1.00
2026-04-03	cranbourne	Lil Orlov	6.00	$-1.00
2026-03-27	cranbourne	Iftihar	2.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.