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Scott Embry
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 29.3% trails market-implied 34.5% by -5.2pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-26.45
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 133 | $-26.45 | -19.9% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 132 | $-40.45 | -30.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 131 | $-46.45 | -35.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 128 | $-57.37 | -44.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 25 | 20.0% | 3.44 | $-8.92 | -35.7% |
| 2026-04 | 41 | 26.8% | 4.00 | $-2.40 | -5.9% |
| 2026-05 | 67 | 34.3% | 3.71 | $-15.13 | -22.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 18 | 72.2% | +$1.50 | +8.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 53 | 30.2% | $-18.25 | -34.4% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 37 | 18.9% | $-11.70 | -31.6% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 17 | 11.8% | $-5.00 | -29.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 7 | 0.0% | $-7.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 1 | 100.0% | +$14.00 | +1400.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 17 | 41.2% | $-2.45 | -14.4% |
| Rank 2 | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.80 | -36.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 28 of 133 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 27 | 29.6% | $-9.25 | -34.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 133 | 29.3% | $-26.45 | -19.9% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| albany | 6 | 33.3% | $-0.50 | -8.3% |
| broome | 6 | 33.3% | $-0.85 | -14.2% |
| york | 6 | 33.3% | $-1.98 | -33.0% |
| pinjarra scarpside | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.85 | -35.6% |
| pinjarra park | 7 | 28.6% | $-3.05 | -43.6% |
| ascot | 61 | 27.9% | $-5.67 | -9.3% |
| belmont | 39 | 30.8% | $-11.55 | -29.6% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Wed | 54 | 24.1% | $-11.75 | -21.8% |
| Thu | 12 | 33.3% | $-2.48 | -20.7% |
| Sat | 67 | 32.8% | $-12.22 | -18.2% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.72 (-18.0% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-22 | ascot | Mandible Magic | 15.00 | +$14.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | ascot | Urquharts Bluff | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Space Academy | 2.30 | +$4.02 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Crows | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | albany | Gingers Sister | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Repossession | 2.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Solar Chant | 1.90 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Yalda Night | 2.80 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-14 | york | Forever Elite | 2.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-11 | ascot | Cessation | 3.90 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.