Scott Embry

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.3% trails market-implied 32.2% by -5.9pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -26.7% — a more honest expectation than the raw -31.8%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -10.6% (-21.2% → -31.8%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.9% (-19.8% → -26.7%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

133

Wins

Win Rate

26.3%

Avg Odds

3.97

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-42.30

ROI

-31.8%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-26.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.2%

Calibration Gap

-5.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	133	$-42.30	-31.8%
Minus best 1 bet	132	$-47.80	-36.2%
Minus best 2 bets	131	$-53.30	-40.7%
Minus best 5 bets	128	$-63.20	-49.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-32.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-31.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	47	19.1%	4.12	$-25.30	-53.8%
2026-08	43	30.2%	4.18	$-2.00	-4.7%
2026-09	36	22.2%	3.72	$-17.10	-47.5%
2026-10	7	71.4%	2.94	+$2.10	+30.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	19	78.9%	+$6.20	+32.6%
2.0-3.0	36	30.6%	$-9.20	-25.6%
3.0-5.0	42	16.7%	$-16.30	-38.8%
5.0-8.0	24	8.3%	$-11.00	-45.8%
8.0-15	12	0.0%	$-12.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	72	38.9%	$-11.10	-15.4%
Rank 2	25	12.0%	$-12.10	-48.4%
Rank 3	16	6.2%	$-13.50	-84.4%
Rank 4-5	13	15.4%	+$0.00	+0.0%
Rank 6+	7	14.3%	$-5.60	-80.0%

Based on 133 of 133 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	19	0.0%	$-19.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	114	30.7%	$-23.30	-20.4%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	133	26.3%	$-42.30	-31.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
pinjarra scarpside	7	28.6%	$-0.70	-10.0%
bunbury	20	40.0%	$-4.70	-23.5%
kalgoorlie	8	12.5%	$-5.20	-65.0%
belmont	96	25.0%	$-29.70	-30.9%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	65	32.3%	$-11.70	-18.0%
Thu	6	16.7%	$-3.90	-65.0%
Sat	52	23.1%	$-19.50	-37.5%
Sun	10	10.0%	$-7.20	-72.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 60.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.30 (-3.0% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-26	belmont	Cosmic Gem	6.50	+$5.50
2026-08-22	belmont	Dawn Dancer	6.50	+$5.50
2026-08-26	belmont	Hot Chix Lane	4.50	+$3.50
2026-07-11	belmont	Magical Sequence	4.20	+$3.20
2026-09-09	belmont	Back To Bondi	4.20	+$3.20

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11	belmont	Talkaway	4.80	$-1.00
2026-08-13	bunbury	Sponge Cake	5.00	$-1.00
2026-09-19	belmont	Ripper Farooq	6.00	$-1.00
2026-09-05	belmont	Pin Deep	3.90	$-1.00
2026-08-26	belmont	Something Royal	2.70	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.