Scott Embry

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 31.5% vs implied 32.9% (-1.3pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI +32.4%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-10.7%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -6.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -3.3%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +10.0% (-13.3% → -3.3%) · Shrunk ROI: +6.9% (-13.2% → -6.3%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

111

Wins

Win Rate

31.5%

Avg Odds

4.00

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.68

ROI

-3.3%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-6.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

32.9%

Calibration Gap

-1.3pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	111	$-3.68	-3.3%
Minus best 1 bet	110	$-17.68	-16.1%
Minus best 2 bets	109	$-27.68	-25.4%
Minus best 5 bets	106	$-40.70	-38.4%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+32.4%

Prior 60d ROI

-10.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	25	28.0%	4.07	+$5.30	+21.2%
2026-05	67	34.3%	3.71	$-15.13	-22.6%
2026-07	19	26.3%	4.93	+$6.15	+32.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	14	71.4%	+$0.85	+6.1%
2.0-3.0	41	34.1%	$-11.63	-28.4%
3.0-5.0	32	21.9%	$-5.90	-18.4%
5.0-8.0	15	13.3%	$-4.00	-26.7%
8.0-15	8	12.5%	+$3.00	+37.5%
15+	1	100.0%	+$14.00	+1400.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	27	33.3%	$-8.50	-31.5%
Rank 2	9	22.2%	$-1.60	-17.8%
Rank 3	3	33.3%	+$3.00	+100.0%
Rank 4-5	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	33.3%	+$8.00	+266.7%

Based on 47 of 111 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	16.7%	+$0.00	+0.0%
Outside Zone	41	29.3%	$-4.10	-10.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	111	31.5%	$-3.68	-3.3%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	47	34.0%	+$3.95	+8.4%
ascot	35	31.4%	+$2.75	+7.9%
albany	6	33.3%	$-0.50	-8.3%
broome	6	33.3%	$-0.85	-14.2%
york	6	33.3%	$-1.98	-33.0%
pinjarra park	7	28.6%	$-3.05	-43.6%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Wed	37	35.1%	+$16.95	+45.8%
Thu	12	33.3%	$-2.48	-20.7%
Sat	58	31.0%	$-14.15	-24.4%
Sun	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 62.5%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.21 (+2.7% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-22	ascot	Mandible Magic	15.00	+$14.00
2026-07-08	belmont	Hanselle	11.00	+$10.00
2026-07-08	belmont	Shimonoseki	6.00	+$5.00
2026-05-14	york	Space Academy	2.30	+$4.02
2026-05-14	york	Crows	5.00	+$4.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-18	ascot	Repossession	2.30	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Solar Chant	1.90	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Yalda Night	2.80	$-3.00
2026-05-14	york	Forever Elite	2.70	$-3.00
2026-07-11	belmont	Talkaway	4.80	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.