Darren and Brett Carroll

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL

Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 42.1% vs implied 39.6% (+2.6pp). Picks track market expectations.

Since last weekly snapshot: +4 new bets · ROI: -4.5% (-4.1% → -8.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.9% (-5.3% → -9.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

311

Wins

131

Win Rate

42.1%

Avg Odds

3.95

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-26.73

ROI

-8.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-9.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

39.6%

Calibration Gap

+2.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	311	$-26.73	-8.6%
Minus best 1 bet	310	$-34.93	-11.3%
Minus best 2 bets	309	$-39.43	-12.8%
Minus best 5 bets	306	$-50.73	-16.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-11.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-7.3%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	75	38.7%	3.57	$-10.87	-14.5%
2026-08	108	45.4%	4.41	+$4.59	+4.2%
2026-09	104	41.3%	3.65	$-13.58	-13.1%
2026-10	24	41.7%	4.32	$-6.87	-28.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	90	54.4%	$-11.69	-13.0%
2.0-3.0	93	45.2%	+$8.20	+8.8%
3.0-5.0	83	24.1%	$-16.78	-20.2%
5.0-8.0	19	21.1%	$-5.93	-31.2%
8.0-15	19	52.6%	+$0.19	+1.0%
15+	7	85.7%	$-0.72	-10.3%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	155	43.9%	$-21.19	-13.7%
Rank 2	76	42.1%	+$1.98	+2.6%
Rank 3	42	45.2%	+$7.14	+17.0%
Rank 4-5	22	31.8%	$-6.95	-31.6%
Rank 6+	13	23.1%	$-7.61	-58.5%

Based on 308 of 311 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	27	55.6%	+$6.14	+22.7%
Outside Zone	281	40.6%	$-32.77	-11.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	311	42.1%	$-26.73	-8.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
kilmore	54	55.6%	+$12.25	+22.7%
shepparton	40	55.0%	+$7.34	+18.4%
terang	7	57.1%	+$3.30	+47.1%
ballarat	36	38.9%	$-0.48	-1.3%
cranbourne	26	38.5%	$-1.53	-5.9%
swan hill	13	15.4%	$-9.09	-69.9%
mildura	31	32.3%	$-12.06	-38.9%
melton	70	34.3%	$-21.85	-31.2%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 54 settled, place rate 63.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.74 (+1.4% ROI) on 53 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-05	ballarat	8. Scar	9.20	+$8.20
2026-08-20	kilmore	7. Moissanite	5.50	+$4.50
2026-08-16	cranbourne	5. Mariana	5.20	+$4.20
2026-08-30	terang	8. Sweet Ideal	4.60	+$3.60
2026-09-16	ballarat	9. Itz Classic Gold	4.50	+$3.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-13	kilmore	8. Aldebaran Miguel	4.60	$-1.00
2026-09-11	mildura	4. Letsgo Big Girl	4.90	$-1.00
2026-09-05	melton	5. The Niteshift	1.79	$-1.00
2026-08-04	shepparton	4. Celestial Nebulae	5.30	$-1.00
2026-08-12	melton	2. Sports Wrack	2.64	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.