Darren and Brett Carroll

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (13 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 38.5% trails market-implied 44.9% by -6.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

38.5%

Avg Odds

2.73

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-2.57

ROI

-19.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

44.9%

Calibration Gap

-6.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	13	$-2.57	-19.8%
Minus best 1 bet	12	$-4.09	-34.1%
Minus best 2 bets	11	$-5.51	-50.1%
Minus best 5 bets	8	$-8.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	13	38.5%	2.73	$-2.57	-19.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	50.0%	$-0.57	-14.2%
2.0-3.0	7	42.9%	+$0.00	+0.0%
3.0-5.0	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

No pre-race rank data yet for this tipster.

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

No rank data yet.

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	13	38.5%	$-2.57	-19.8%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bendigo	5	60.0%	+$1.85	+37.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-04	bendigo	5. Telern Lofty	2.52	+$1.52
2026-03-04	bendigo	5. Tryx Vixen	2.42	+$1.42
2026-03-03	shepparton	3. Attracted	2.06	+$1.06
2026-03-04	bendigo	8. Midnite Muscle	1.91	+$0.91
2026-03-02	terang	8. Mcbart	1.52	+$0.52

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-03	shepparton	6. Floppa	2.80	$-1.00
2026-03-03	shepparton	4. Starzzz Destiny	2.20	$-1.00
2026-03-02	terang	10. Mufasa Bart	1.96	$-1.00
2026-03-03	shepparton	4. Shazza Love	2.72	$-1.00
2026-03-04	bendigo	2. Always Skye High	8.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.