Darren and Brett Carroll

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (42 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 42.9% vs implied 41.2% (+1.6pp). Picks track market expectations. 188% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -10.6% on 40 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -1.8% — a more honest expectation than the raw +11.5%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +16.0% (-4.5% → +11.5%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.2% (-7.0% → -1.8%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

42.9%

Avg Odds

3.21

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$4.85

ROI

+11.5%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-1.8%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

41.2%

Calibration Gap

+1.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	42	+$4.85	+11.5%
Minus best 1 bet	41	+$0.05	+0.1%
Minus best 2 bets	40	$-4.25	-10.6%
Minus best 5 bets	37	$-12.60	-34.1%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	12	25.0%	3.65	$-3.68	-30.7%
2026-07	30	50.0%	3.03	+$8.53	+28.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	14	42.9%	$-4.00	-28.6%
2.0-3.0	9	55.6%	+$2.98	+33.1%
3.0-5.0	14	28.6%	$-1.31	-9.4%
5.0-8.0	4	50.0%	+$7.10	+177.5%
8.0-15	1	100.0%	+$0.08	+8.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	20	45.0%	$-3.24	-16.2%
Rank 2	10	30.0%	$-0.09	-0.9%
Rank 3	8	62.5%	+$6.88	+86.0%
Rank 4-5	2	50.0%	+$3.30	+165.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 41 of 42 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	66.7%	+$3.88	+129.3%
Outside Zone	38	42.1%	+$1.97	+5.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	42	42.9%	+$4.85	+11.5%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bendigo	5	80.0%	+$11.28	+225.6%
shepparton	8	50.0%	+$0.44	+5.5%
melton	7	42.9%	$-1.09	-15.6%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 8 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.15 (-26.8% ROI) on 8 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-01	bendigo	8. Little Miss Morgan	5.80	+$4.80
2026-07-01	bendigo	2. Cool Story	5.30	+$4.30
2026-07-14	shepparton	2. Our Sweet Jeannie	4.20	+$3.20
2026-06-24	bendigo	9. Watch Your Back	4.10	+$3.10
2026-07-05	cranbourne	3. Cloudy Canyon	3.05	+$2.05

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-25	ballarat	8. Blue Miki	6.20	$-1.00
2026-07-14	shepparton	4. Maddaleez	3.40	$-1.00
2026-07-06	charlton	4. Hungry Hogarth	3.30	$-1.00
2026-07-12	terang	7. Gunforhire	3.25	$-1.00
2026-07-06	charlton	1. Myrtle May	3.70	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.