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Sky Racing - Chris Barsby
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 43.5% trails market-implied 57.9% by -14.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -35.8%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+6.7%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-11.37
Implied Win % (1/odds)
57.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 154 | $-11.37 | -7.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 153 | $-18.17 | -11.9% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 152 | $-22.87 | -15.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 149 | $-32.42 | -21.8% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 68 | 44.1% | 2.36 | $-8.61 | -12.7% |
| 2026-04 | 42 | 47.6% | 2.73 | +$10.51 | +25.0% |
| 2026-05 | 44 | 38.6% | 2.25 | $-13.27 | -30.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 79 | 50.6% | $-24.98 | -31.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 35 | 40.0% | +$0.36 | +1.0% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 31 | 35.5% | +$8.75 | +28.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 6 | 33.3% | +$7.50 | +125.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.06 | +35.3% |
| Rank 2 | 4 | 50.0% | +$3.28 | +82.0% |
| Rank 3 | 2 | 50.0% | +$2.40 | +120.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 33.3% | $-1.64 | -54.7% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 13 of 154 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 13 | 46.2% | +$4.10 | +31.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 154 | 43.5% | $-11.37 | -7.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| redcliffe | 54 | 44.4% | +$6.56 | +12.1% |
| albion park | 100 | 43.0% | $-17.93 | -17.9% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 15 | 46.7% | $-0.70 | -4.7% |
| Tue | 32 | 56.2% | +$5.04 | +15.8% |
| Wed | 8 | 75.0% | +$5.21 | +65.1% |
| Thu | 23 | 21.7% | $-12.87 | -56.0% |
| Fri | 56 | 44.6% | +$1.48 | +2.6% |
| Sat | 20 | 30.0% | $-9.53 | -47.7% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.38 (+38.0% ROI) on 1 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-10 | albion park | Natty Pagger | 7.80 | +$6.80 |
| 2026-04-13 | redcliffe | Aladdin Sane | 5.70 | +$4.70 |
| 2026-05-20 | redcliffe | Littlemickey | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-05-29 | redcliffe | Doolittle Doozzie | 4.30 | +$3.30 |
| 2026-04-13 | redcliffe | A Perfect Dance | 3.85 | +$2.85 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-26 | albion park | Queen Lilibet | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | albion park | Shes Crunchy | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-29 | albion park | Blue Suede Rocka | 3.55 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-10 | albion park | My Ultimate Rudi | 1.01 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-27 | albion park | Tremendous Sensati | 3.05 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.