Greg Hooper

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (24 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 20.8% trails market-implied 37.8% by -17.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. 1304% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -73.9% on 22 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +88.6%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-64.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -7.0% — a more honest expectation than the raw +5.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -2.1% (+7.8% → +5.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -3.7% (-3.3% → -7.0%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

20.8%

Avg Odds

3.67

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$1.35

ROI

+5.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-7.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.8%

Calibration Gap

-17.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	24	+$1.35	+5.6%
Minus best 1 bet	23	$-12.65	-55.0%
Minus best 2 bets	22	$-16.25	-73.9%
Minus best 5 bets	19	$-19.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+88.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-64.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	5	20.0%	2.84	$-0.40	-8.0%
2026-05	8	0.0%	2.99	$-8.00	-100.0%
2026-06	9	33.3%	4.54	+$10.00	+111.1%
2026-07	2	50.0%	4.62	$-0.25	-12.5%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	7	28.6%	$-3.35	-47.9%
2.0-3.0	7	14.3%	$-4.90	-70.0%
3.0-5.0	6	16.7%	$-1.40	-23.3%
5.0-8.0	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	100.0%	+$14.00	+1400.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	40.0%	$-1.00	-20.0%
Rank 2	2	50.0%	$-0.25	-12.5%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	33.3%	+$12.00	+400.0%

Based on 14 of 24 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Outside Zone	14	28.6%	+$6.75	+48.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	24	20.8%	+$1.35	+5.6%

By venue

(no venue data with sufficient samples)

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Thu	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.11 (+11.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-17	northam	Flip The Pattys	15.00	+$14.00
2026-04-22	narrogin	Lien Hyphen	4.60	+$3.60
2026-06-12	belmont	Bassett Hound	2.10	+$1.10
2026-06-17	northam	Bosun	1.90	+$0.90
2026-07-01	pinjarra	Cosmo Ruler	1.75	+$0.75

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-24	ascot	Mark The Sky	3.10	$-1.00
2026-06-24	northam	Peanut Butter	2.80	$-1.00
2026-05-13	york	Solar Chant	2.10	$-1.00
2026-05-13	york	Greyt Ruby	8.00	$-1.00
2026-05-23	kalgoorlie	Monty Zoomer	1.75	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.