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Greg Hooper
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 21.1% trails market-implied 39.3% by -18.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -100.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+34.0%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-8.28
Implied Win % (1/odds)
39.3%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 19 | $-8.28 | -43.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 18 | $-11.88 | -66.0% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 17 | $-13.08 | -76.9% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 14 | $-14.00 | -100.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 4 | 25.0% | 4.39 | $-1.88 | -47.0% |
| 2026-04 | 7 | 42.9% | 2.60 | +$1.60 | +22.9% |
| 2026-05 | 8 | 0.0% | 2.99 | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 20.0% | $-3.20 | -64.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 7 | 28.6% | $-2.68 | -38.3% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 4 | 25.0% | +$0.60 | +15.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 3 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Outside Zone | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sportsbet_racing | 19 | 21.1% | $-8.28 | -43.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| ascot | 6 | 33.3% | $-2.00 | -33.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Thu | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Place market
No place outcomes captured yet for this tipster.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-22 | narrogin | Lien Hyphen | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-04-03 | ascot | Beatty | 2.20 | +$1.20 |
| 2026-03-11 | pinjarra | Wynn Las Vegas | 2.05 | +$1.12 |
| 2026-04-03 | ascot | Holler Nuff | 1.80 | +$0.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-24 | ascot | Mark The Sky | 3.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | york | Solar Chant | 2.10 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | york | Greyt Ruby | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | kalgoorlie | Monty Zoomer | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | kalgoorlie | Space Academy | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.