Greg Hooper

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (20 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 25.0% vs implied 27.8% (-2.8pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -82.0%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+12.0%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -19.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw -35.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -23.2% (-11.8% → -35.0%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.9% (-12.4% → -19.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Odds

4.54

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.00

ROI

-35.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-19.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.8%

Calibration Gap

-2.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	20	$-7.00	-35.0%
Minus best 1 bet	19	$-9.80	-51.6%
Minus best 2 bets	18	$-11.90	-66.1%
Minus best 5 bets	15	$-15.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-82.0%

Prior 60d ROI

+12.0%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	5	60.0%	3.75	+$3.75	+75.0%
2026-08	11	18.2%	4.74	$-6.75	-61.4%
2026-09	4	0.0%	5.00	$-4.00	-100.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$1.65	+82.5%
2.0-3.0	3	33.3%	$-0.55	-18.3%
3.0-5.0	6	33.3%	+$0.90	+15.0%
5.0-8.0	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	60.0%	+$3.10	+62.0%
Rank 2	6	33.3%	$-1.10	-18.3%
Rank 3	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 20 of 20 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	15	33.3%	$-2.00	-13.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	20	25.0%	$-7.00	-35.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	8	50.0%	+$1.90	+23.8%
northam	5	20.0%	$-1.90	-38.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.54 (+77.0% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-17	belmont	In Confidence	3.80	+$2.80
2026-07-22	northam	Delzee	3.10	+$2.10
2026-08-08	belmont	Cinque Stelle	2.45	+$1.45
2026-07-17	belmont	Western Miss	1.85	+$0.85
2026-08-25	belmont	Truly Loyal	1.80	+$0.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-19	strathalbyn	Cosmic Eclipse	5.50	$-1.00
2026-08-26	northam	Official Business	2.15	$-1.00
2026-09-17	bunbury	Wardikcar	3.90	$-1.00
2026-08-25	belmont	Hype Machine	12.00	$-1.00
2026-07-22	northam	Prince Epaulette	5.00	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.