Greg Hooper

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (27 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 33.3% vs implied 31.0% (+2.4pp). Picks track market expectations. 249% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -40.2% on 25 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -61.4%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+84.4%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +0.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +25.0%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +26.9% (-1.9% → +25.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +7.9% (-7.6% → +0.3%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

33.3%

Avg Odds

4.48

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$6.75

ROI

+25.0%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+0.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.0%

Calibration Gap

+2.4pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	27	+$6.75	+25.0%
Minus best 1 bet	26	$-7.25	-27.9%
Minus best 2 bets	25	$-10.05	-40.2%
Minus best 5 bets	22	$-14.70	-66.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-61.4%

Prior 60d ROI

+84.4%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	9	33.3%	4.54	+$10.00	+111.1%
2026-07	7	57.1%	4.00	+$3.50	+50.0%
2026-08	11	18.2%	4.74	$-6.75	-61.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	80.0%	+$2.30	+46.0%
2.0-3.0	5	40.0%	$-0.45	-9.0%
3.0-5.0	7	28.6%	$-0.10	-1.4%
5.0-8.0	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
15+	1	100.0%	+$14.00	+1400.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	7	71.4%	+$5.10	+72.9%
Rank 2	7	42.9%	$-0.35	-5.0%
Rank 3	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	5	20.0%	+$10.00	+200.0%

Based on 27 of 27 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	23	39.1%	+$10.75	+46.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sportsbet_racing	27	33.3%	+$6.75	+25.0%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
northam	9	33.3%	+$11.00	+122.2%
belmont	9	55.6%	+$3.00	+33.3%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.27 (+13.5% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-06-17	northam	Flip The Pattys	15.00	+$14.00
2026-07-17	belmont	In Confidence	3.80	+$2.80
2026-07-22	northam	Delzee	3.10	+$2.10
2026-08-08	belmont	Cinque Stelle	2.45	+$1.45
2026-06-12	belmont	Bassett Hound	2.10	+$1.10

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-19	strathalbyn	Cosmic Eclipse	5.50	$-1.00
2026-06-24	northam	Peanut Butter	2.80	$-1.00
2026-08-26	northam	Official Business	2.15	$-1.00
2026-08-25	belmont	Hype Machine	12.00	$-1.00
2026-06-19	belmont	Like Clockwork	6.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.