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Edward Sadler
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC
Verdict
BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL
Small sample (52 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.8% vs implied 28.9% (+1.9pp). Picks track market expectations. 992% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -22.3% on 50 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI -52.6%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (+34.1%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -5.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw +2.4%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +12.3% (-9.9% → +2.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.8% (-11.0% → -5.1%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$1.25
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-5.1%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 52 | +$1.25 | +2.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 51 | $-7.75 | -15.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 50 | $-11.15 | -22.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 47 | $-20.35 | -43.3% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-06 | 22 | 27.3% | 5.07 | $-4.20 | -19.1% |
| 2026-07 | 20 | 35.0% | 4.98 | +$6.45 | +32.2% |
| 2026-08 | 10 | 30.0% | 3.69 | $-1.00 | -10.0% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 5 | 60.0% | +$0.10 | +2.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 11 | 45.5% | +$1.15 | +10.5% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 21 | 33.3% | +$5.00 | +23.8% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 8 | 0.0% | $-8.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 6 | 16.7% | +$4.00 | +66.7% |
| 15+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 21 | 47.6% | +$3.05 | +14.5% |
| Rank 2 | 15 | 13.3% | $-8.40 | -56.0% |
| Rank 3 | 5 | 60.0% | +$7.60 | +152.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 6 | 16.7% | +$4.00 | +66.7% |
Based on 52 of 52 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 48 | 33.3% | +$5.25 | +10.9% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 52 | 30.8% | +$1.25 | +2.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sale | 16 | 43.8% | +$11.25 | +70.3% |
| moe | 10 | 50.0% | +$2.60 | +26.0% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 14 | 14.3% | $-5.40 | -38.6% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.80 | -40.0% |
| Wed | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.35 | -29.4% |
| Thu | 15 | 53.3% | +$14.35 | +95.7% |
| Fri | 12 | 16.7% | $-7.15 | -59.6% |
| Sat | 10 | 30.0% | $-0.80 | -8.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 60.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.61 (+52.2% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-09 | sale | Kosei Top | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | picklebet park wodonga | Sir Basil | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
| 2026-08-17 | picklebet park wodonga | First Division | 4.20 | +$3.20 |
| 2026-07-09 | sale | Polar Perspective | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | moe | Nasraawy | 4.00 | +$3.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-06-10 | sale | Wonboyn | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | sale | Nordic Strike | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | ladbrokes geelong | Finardi | 5.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-17 | picklebet park wodonga | Ashina | 1.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | ladbrokes geelong | Omnic | 4.60 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-08-29 05:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.