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Edward Sadler
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
ROI MISLEADING
Calibration is positive: actual win rate 33.9% beats market-implied 28.9% by +5.0pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 130% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -5.5% on 60 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +34.1%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-0.2%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +4.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +18.0%.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +33.2% (-15.2% → +18.0%) · Shrunk ROI: +18.5% (-14.3% → +4.2%) · Verdict: STRUCTURALLY LOSING → ROI MISLEADING
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
+$11.19
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
+4.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 62 | +$11.19 | +18.0% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 61 | +$2.19 | +3.6% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 60 | $-3.31 | -5.5% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 57 | $-15.71 | -27.6% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-05 | 29 | 27.6% | 4.45 | $-0.06 | -0.2% |
| 2026-06 | 22 | 27.3% | 5.07 | $-4.20 | -19.1% |
| 2026-07 | 11 | 63.6% | 3.93 | +$15.45 | +140.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 6 | 83.3% | +$1.98 | +33.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 13 | 38.5% | +$1.31 | +10.1% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 20 | 35.0% | +$3.40 | +17.0% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 18 | 16.7% | $-0.50 | -2.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 5 | 20.0% | +$5.00 | +100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 21 | 42.9% | +$0.85 | +4.0% |
| Rank 2 | 11 | 27.3% | +$4.00 | +36.4% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 50.0% | +$6.00 | +100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 5 | 20.0% | +$5.00 | +100.0% |
Based on 48 of 62 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 8 | 25.0% | +$3.00 | +37.5% |
| Outside Zone | 40 | 35.0% | +$7.85 | +19.6% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 62 | 33.9% | +$11.19 | +18.0% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sale | 22 | 45.5% | +$15.71 | +71.4% |
| bet365 echuca | 15 | 26.7% | $-0.12 | -0.8% |
| moe | 18 | 33.3% | $-1.80 | -10.0% |
| picklebet park wodonga | 7 | 14.3% | $-2.60 | -37.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 25.0% | $-4.12 | -51.5% |
| Wed | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.35 | -29.4% |
| Thu | 23 | 39.1% | +$9.95 | +43.3% |
| Fri | 3 | 66.7% | +$1.85 | +61.7% |
| Sat | 14 | 21.4% | +$1.40 | +10.0% |
| Sun | 6 | 50.0% | +$4.46 | +74.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 40.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.29 (+25.8% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-09 | sale | Kosei Top | 10.00 | +$9.00 |
| 2026-05-03 | sale | Perfect Ten | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | bet365 echuca | Wallaby Jack | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | bet365 echuca | Wild Ruby | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | picklebet park wodonga | Sir Basil | 4.40 | +$3.40 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-03 | sale | Expanding Power | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | bet365 echuca | Zourosa | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | sale | Wonboyn | 2.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | sale | Nordic Strike | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | bet365 echuca | Watt On Earth | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.