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Edward Sadler
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (50 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.0% trails market-implied 29.4% by -5.4pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -0.2%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-44.0%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-9.29
Implied Win % (1/odds)
29.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 50 | $-9.29 | -18.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 49 | $-14.79 | -30.2% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 48 | $-19.79 | -41.2% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 45 | $-31.07 | -69.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 8 | 12.5% | 4.55 | $-4.08 | -51.0% |
| 2026-04 | 13 | 23.1% | 3.62 | $-5.15 | -39.6% |
| 2026-05 | 29 | 27.6% | 4.45 | $-0.06 | -0.2% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 3 | 66.7% | $-0.12 | -4.0% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 14 | 35.7% | +$0.81 | +5.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 16 | 12.5% | $-10.48 | -65.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 14 | 21.4% | +$3.50 | +25.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 2 | 6 | 33.3% | +$5.00 | +83.3% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 33.3% | +$0.60 | +20.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 15 of 50 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 6 | 33.3% | +$5.00 | +83.3% |
| Outside Zone | 9 | 11.1% | $-5.40 | -60.0% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 50 | 24.0% | $-9.29 | -18.6% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sale | 6 | 50.0% | +$4.46 | +74.3% |
| donald | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.05 | -1.0% |
| bet365 echuca | 15 | 26.7% | $-0.12 | -0.8% |
| ararat | 8 | 12.5% | $-4.08 | -51.0% |
| moe | 8 | 12.5% | $-4.40 | -55.0% |
| southside pakenham | 8 | 12.5% | $-5.10 | -63.7% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 16 | 18.8% | $-8.20 | -51.3% |
| Tue | 5 | 40.0% | $-0.05 | -1.0% |
| Thu | 16 | 12.5% | $-9.50 | -59.4% |
| Sat | 7 | 28.6% | +$4.00 | +57.1% |
| Sun | 6 | 50.0% | +$4.46 | +74.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 0.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-2.00 (-100.0% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-03 | sale | Perfect Ten | 6.50 | +$5.50 |
| 2026-05-23 | bet365 echuca | Wallaby Jack | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | bet365 echuca | Wild Ruby | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | ararat | Yoomee Wonder | 3.10 | +$3.92 |
| 2026-05-03 | sale | Thalestris | 2.10 | +$3.36 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-03 | sale | Expanding Power | 3.50 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | ararat | Flashlight | 4.80 | $-2.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | bet365 echuca | Zourosa | 4.20 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | ararat | Finance Merchant | 2.70 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | bet365 echuca | Watt On Earth | 3.30 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 17:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.