Edward Sadler

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (31 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 12.9% trails market-implied 28.4% by -15.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -81.7%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-59.1%) — trend is declining. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -33.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw -65.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -55.1% (-10.5% → -65.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -21.8% (-11.3% → -33.1%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

12.9%

Avg Odds

4.81

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-20.35

ROI

-65.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-33.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.4%

Calibration Gap

-15.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	31	$-20.35	-65.6%
Minus best 1 bet	30	$-23.55	-78.5%
Minus best 2 bets	29	$-25.15	-86.7%
Minus best 5 bets	26	$-26.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-81.7%

Prior 60d ROI

-59.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	9	0.0%	6.27	$-9.00	-100.0%
2026-08	13	23.1%	4.00	$-4.00	-30.8%
2026-10	9	11.1%	4.51	$-7.35	-81.7%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	33.3%	$-1.35	-45.0%
2.0-3.0	5	40.0%	$-0.20	-4.0%
3.0-5.0	13	7.7%	$-8.80	-67.7%
5.0-8.0	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
8.0-15	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	10	20.0%	$-6.15	-61.5%
Rank 2	11	9.1%	$-8.40	-76.4%
Rank 3	3	33.3%	+$1.20	+40.0%
Rank 4-5	6	0.0%	$-6.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 31 of 31 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	28	14.3%	$-17.35	-62.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	31	12.9%	$-20.35	-65.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
betdeluxe warracknabeal	6	33.3%	$-1.20	-20.0%
picklebet park wodonga	7	14.3%	$-2.80	-40.0%
bet365 park kyneton	9	11.1%	$-7.35	-81.7%
ladbrokes geelong	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	7	14.3%	$-2.80	-40.0%
Thu	9	11.1%	$-7.35	-81.7%
Fri	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
Sat	6	33.3%	$-1.20	-20.0%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 3 settled, place rate 66.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.59 (-19.7% ROI) on 3 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-17	picklebet park wodonga	First Division	4.20	+$3.20
2026-08-29	betdeluxe warracknabeal	Habitual	2.60	+$1.60
2026-08-29	betdeluxe warracknabeal	Honour The Bassett	2.20	+$1.20
2026-10-08	bet365 park kyneton	Caddington	1.65	+$0.65

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-31	ladbrokes geelong	Finardi	5.50	$-1.00
2026-08-17	picklebet park wodonga	Ashina	1.75	$-1.00
2026-10-08	bet365 park kyneton	Muddy	7.50	$-1.00
2026-07-31	ladbrokes geelong	Omnic	4.60	$-1.00
2026-10-08	bet365 park kyneton	Meness	1.55	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.