Sky Racing - Belinda Smith

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 28.1% trails market-implied 34.2% by -6.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -29.1%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-12.9%) — trend is declining.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

114

Wins

Win Rate

28.1%

Avg Odds

4.11

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-19.24

ROI

-16.9%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

34.2%

Calibration Gap

-6.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	114	$-19.24	-16.9%
Minus best 1 bet	113	$-24.84	-22.0%
Minus best 2 bets	112	$-30.04	-26.8%
Minus best 5 bets	109	$-42.54	-39.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-29.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-12.9%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	67	26.9%	4.26	$-12.68	-18.9%
2026-04	19	36.8%	3.37	+$1.59	+8.4%
2026-05	28	25.0%	4.28	$-8.15	-29.1%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	21	57.1%	$-1.97	-9.4%
2.0-3.0	23	26.1%	$-9.32	-40.5%
3.0-5.0	38	26.3%	+$0.65	+1.7%
5.0-8.0	23	17.4%	+$0.40	+1.7%
8.0-15	8	0.0%	$-8.00	-100.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	6	16.7%	$-4.18	-69.7%
Rank 2	4	0.0%	$-4.00	-100.0%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$2.90	+145.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 14 of 114 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	12	16.7%	$-5.28	-44.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	114	28.1%	$-19.24	-16.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
tamworth	14	50.0%	+$12.28	+87.7%
ballina	5	40.0%	+$0.49	+9.8%
taree	26	38.5%	$-0.29	-1.1%
grafton	20	30.0%	$-2.69	-13.5%
port macquarie	34	20.6%	$-14.03	-41.3%
armidale	15	0.0%	$-15.00	-100.0%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Mon	35	25.7%	$-7.84	-22.4%
Tue	33	33.3%	$-4.53	-13.7%
Wed	6	33.3%	+$0.72	+12.0%
Thu	7	14.3%	$-5.60	-80.0%
Fri	15	13.3%	$-7.36	-49.1%
Sun	18	38.9%	+$5.37	+29.8%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.28 (+27.7% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-03-02	tamworth	Ichika	6.60	+$5.60
2026-03-02	tamworth	Yes Yes Boss	6.20	+$5.20
2026-05-05	taree	Silver Tempest	5.40	+$4.40
2026-04-09	tamworth	Hulu	5.20	+$4.20
2026-05-27	port macquarie	Youwroteuponit	4.90	+$3.90

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-05-18	port macquarie	Lovecats	2.74	$-1.00
2026-05-27	port macquarie	Rockbarton Marshal	3.55	$-1.00
2026-03-29	grafton	Gaylord	3.95	$-1.00
2026-03-29	grafton	Referees	2.20	$-1.00
2026-03-12	armidale	Bundoran	2.42	$-1.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.