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Sky Racing - Belinda Smith
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 29.4% trails market-implied 34.7% by -5.3pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +9.7% (-25.1% → -15.4%) · Shrunk ROI: +8.3% (-22.7% → -14.4%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-10.50
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-14.4%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
34.7%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 68 | $-10.50 | -15.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 67 | $-15.90 | -23.7% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 66 | $-20.30 | -30.8% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 63 | $-29.60 | -47.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 12 | 41.7% | 2.62 | +$0.95 | +7.9% |
| 2026-05 | 28 | 25.0% | 4.28 | $-8.15 | -29.1% |
| 2026-06 | 22 | 18.2% | 3.73 | $-11.97 | -54.4% |
| 2026-07 | 6 | 66.7% | 4.14 | +$8.67 | +144.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 13 | 61.5% | +$0.88 | +6.8% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 15 | 20.0% | $-8.58 | -57.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 22 | 31.8% | +$3.40 | +15.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 15 | 13.3% | $-3.20 | -21.3% |
| 8.0-15 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 21 | 28.6% | $-7.38 | -35.1% |
| Rank 2 | 11 | 18.2% | $-4.50 | -40.9% |
| Rank 3 | 6 | 33.3% | +$5.30 | +88.3% |
| Rank 4-5 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 42 of 68 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 6 | 16.7% | +$0.40 | +6.7% |
| Outside Zone | 36 | 25.0% | $-10.98 | -30.5% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 68 | 29.4% | $-10.50 | -15.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| taree | 40 | 32.5% | $-3.79 | -9.5% |
| port macquarie | 28 | 25.0% | $-6.71 | -24.0% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Tue | 34 | 26.5% | $-12.46 | -36.6% |
| Wed | 6 | 33.3% | +$0.72 | +12.0% |
| Thu | 6 | 66.7% | +$8.67 | +144.5% |
| Sun | 13 | 38.5% | +$1.57 | +12.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 5 settled, place rate 80.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.97 (+19.5% ROI) on 5 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-09 | taree | Outoftheoffice | 6.40 | +$5.40 |
| 2026-05-05 | taree | Silver Tempest | 5.40 | +$4.40 |
| 2026-05-27 | port macquarie | Youwroteuponit | 4.90 | +$3.90 |
| 2026-04-25 | port macquarie | Rockbarton Marshal | 3.90 | +$2.90 |
| 2026-07-09 | taree | Bonjour Bill | 3.50 | +$2.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-05-18 | port macquarie | Lovecats | 2.74 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-27 | port macquarie | Rockbarton Marshal | 3.55 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | taree | Zouking | 5.40 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | taree | The Comanche | 7.60 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | taree | Clubman | 6.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.