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Rylie Morgan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 24.8% trails market-implied 30.9% by -6.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -33.5%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-12.4%) — trend is declining.
Bio & context
Rylie Morgan is a Western Australian racing presenter, producer, and tipster employed by Racing WA and featured across multiple platforms including Racing.com, 7Plus, and SEN Turf. Self-taught after finishing school with no family racing ties, Morgan started posting free WA racing tips on Twitter, developed a following, and transitioned into professional media work approximately 4+ years ago while completing university studies.
Western AustraliaRacing WA TV Presenter & Producer; SEN Turf analyst4 yrs
Methodology: Balanced mix of data analysis, speed maps, and replay watching with focus on race shape and how it suits certain horses; identifies trial watching as a key edge; emphasizes value-seeking in markets; acknowledges stronger proficiency in sprint/shorter-course races versus middle-distance and staying races
Specialty: WA racing specialist; particularly stronger on sprint/shorter-course races
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @ryliedotmorgan (joined March 2015)
- Racing WA TV - presenter and race-day producer
- Racing.com - WA tipster
- 7Plus - presenter
- SEN Turf - analyst on Inside Running (Saturday mornings, 8am) with Darren McAullay and Terry Leighton
- The Races WA Podcast - guest appearances
- Sports Breakfast (radio) - regular racing expert guest providing tips
Industry connections
- Darren McAullay (co-host on Inside Running)
- Terry Leighton (co-host on Inside Running)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -6.4% (-17.8% → -24.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -4.5% (-17.5% → -22.0%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-48.85
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-22.0%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
30.9%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 202 | $-48.85 | -24.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 201 | $-64.85 | -32.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 200 | $-70.85 | -35.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 197 | $-82.65 | -42.0% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-07 | 89 | 24.7% | 4.79 | $-11.00 | -12.4% |
| 2026-08 | 113 | 24.8% | 3.97 | $-37.85 | -33.5% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 22 | 54.5% | $-1.70 | -7.7% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 58 | 37.9% | $-4.55 | -7.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 63 | 19.0% | $-17.60 | -27.9% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 39 | 7.7% | $-22.00 | -56.4% |
| 8.0-15 | 17 | 0.0% | $-17.00 | -100.0% |
| 15+ | 3 | 33.3% | +$14.00 | +466.7% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 102 | 36.3% | $-17.10 | -16.8% |
| Rank 2 | 40 | 17.5% | $-11.30 | -28.3% |
| Rank 3 | 22 | 9.1% | $-13.40 | -60.9% |
| Rank 4-5 | 21 | 9.5% | $-9.00 | -42.9% |
| Rank 6+ | 16 | 12.5% | +$2.95 | +18.4% |
Based on 201 of 202 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 26 | 3.8% | $-21.00 | -80.8% |
| Outside Zone | 175 | 28.0% | $-26.85 | -15.3% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 202 | 24.8% | $-48.85 | -24.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| broome | 18 | 33.3% | +$2.70 | +15.0% |
| derby | 6 | 50.0% | +$1.70 | +28.3% |
| pinjarra scarpside | 8 | 25.0% | $-2.35 | -29.4% |
| carnarvon | 15 | 20.0% | $-3.90 | -26.0% |
| pinjarra park | 15 | 20.0% | $-5.15 | -34.3% |
| kalgoorlie | 15 | 20.0% | $-7.65 | -51.0% |
| northam | 17 | 17.6% | $-10.20 | -60.0% |
| bunbury | 22 | 22.7% | $-10.80 | -49.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 5 | 60.0% | +$1.10 | +22.0% |
| Wed | 46 | 30.4% | $-6.55 | -14.2% |
| Thu | 47 | 17.0% | $-26.35 | -56.1% |
| Fri | 10 | 20.0% | $-2.40 | -24.0% |
| Sat | 68 | 25.0% | $-7.10 | -10.4% |
| Sun | 26 | 23.1% | $-7.55 | -29.0% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 18 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$3.39 (+18.8% ROI) on 18 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-25 | belmont | Tidwell | 17.00 | +$16.00 |
| 2026-08-15 | broome | Boutique Session | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-07-24 | broome | Ocean Outlaw | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | pinjarra park | Superb Vintage | 5.00 | +$4.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | carnarvon | Fries With That | 4.80 | +$3.80 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-07-29 | belmont | Raw Umber | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | carnarvon | She Is All Magic | 8.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | pinjarra park | Sin City Boy | 3.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-07-29 | belmont | Military Power | 18.00 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-08-09 | kalgoorlie | Gold Lilly | 7.00 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.