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Rylie Morgan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 29.5% vs implied 31.5% (-2.0pp). Picks track market expectations. Recent 30d (ROI -5.7%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-20.9%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion.
Bio & context
Rylie Morgan is a Western Australian racing presenter, producer, and tipster employed by Racing WA and featured across multiple platforms including Racing.com, 7Plus, and SEN Turf. Self-taught after finishing school with no family racing ties, Morgan started posting free WA racing tips on Twitter, developed a following, and transitioned into professional media work approximately 4+ years ago while completing university studies.
Western AustraliaRacing WA TV Presenter & Producer; SEN Turf analyst4 yrs
Methodology: Balanced mix of data analysis, speed maps, and replay watching with focus on race shape and how it suits certain horses; identifies trial watching as a key edge; emphasizes value-seeking in markets; acknowledges stronger proficiency in sprint/shorter-course races versus middle-distance and staying races
Specialty: WA racing specialist; particularly stronger on sprint/shorter-course races
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @ryliedotmorgan (joined March 2015)
- Racing WA TV - presenter and race-day producer
- Racing.com - WA tipster
- 7Plus - presenter
- SEN Turf - analyst on Inside Running (Saturday mornings, 8am) with Darren McAullay and Terry Leighton
- The Races WA Podcast - guest appearances
- Sports Breakfast (radio) - regular racing expert guest providing tips
Industry connections
- Darren McAullay (co-host on Inside Running)
- Terry Leighton (co-host on Inside Running)
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -0.3% (-15.3% → -15.6%) · Shrunk ROI: -0.1% (-15.1% → -15.2%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-56.47
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-15.2%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
31.5%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 363 | $-56.47 | -15.6% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 362 | $-66.07 | -18.3% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 361 | $-73.57 | -20.4% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 358 | $-92.07 | -25.7% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 71 | 18.3% | 3.86 | $-29.55 | -41.6% |
| 2026-05 | 104 | 36.5% | 3.94 | $-10.60 | -10.2% |
| 2026-06 | 145 | 29.0% | 4.38 | $-27.97 | -19.3% |
| 2026-07 | 43 | 32.6% | 4.54 | +$11.65 | +27.1% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 42 | 71.4% | +$9.08 | +21.6% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 101 | 37.6% | $-14.95 | -14.8% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 125 | 24.8% | $-7.10 | -5.7% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 67 | 10.4% | $-24.00 | -35.8% |
| 8.0-15 | 23 | 4.3% | $-14.50 | -63.0% |
| 15+ | 5 | 0.0% | $-5.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 98 | 42.9% | $-5.17 | -5.3% |
| Rank 2 | 57 | 24.6% | $-4.95 | -8.7% |
| Rank 3 | 31 | 9.7% | $-16.20 | -52.3% |
| Rank 4-5 | 27 | 14.8% | $-7.50 | -27.8% |
| Rank 6+ | 11 | 18.2% | +$4.50 | +40.9% |
Based on 224 of 363 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 31 | 6.5% | $-19.50 | -62.9% |
| Outside Zone | 193 | 32.6% | $-9.82 | -5.1% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 362 | 29.6% | $-55.47 | -15.3% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| pinjarra scarpside | 24 | 37.5% | +$4.94 | +20.6% |
| roebourne | 6 | 50.0% | +$4.45 | +74.2% |
| carnarvon | 12 | 33.3% | +$3.20 | +26.7% |
| broome | 6 | 33.3% | +$1.20 | +20.0% |
| pinjarra park | 19 | 31.6% | $-0.95 | -5.0% |
| albany | 29 | 31.0% | $-2.90 | -10.0% |
| kalgoorlie | 20 | 40.0% | $-3.65 | -18.2% |
| port hedland | 6 | 16.7% | $-3.80 | -63.3% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 15 | 26.7% | +$2.70 | +18.0% |
| Wed | 84 | 27.4% | $-14.75 | -17.6% |
| Thu | 70 | 34.3% | $-5.76 | -8.2% |
| Fri | 20 | 40.0% | +$6.75 | +33.8% |
| Sat | 105 | 27.6% | $-16.85 | -16.0% |
| Sun | 69 | 27.5% | $-28.56 | -41.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 23 settled, place rate 78.3%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$7.54 (+32.8% ROI) on 23 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Jigsaw | 3.70 | +$9.60 |
| 2026-07-08 | belmont | Hanselle | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-04-27 | pinjarra scarpside | Godless Storm | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-06-27 | belmont | Rock The Market | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | pinjarra park | Leetron | 7.00 | +$6.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | True Player | 2.35 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Maria Lucia | 3.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | geraldton | Archenemy | 3.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | Prince Epaulette | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | Enticing | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.