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Rylie Morgan
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 30.7% vs implied 32.4% (-1.7pp). Picks track market expectations.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-43.03
Implied Win % (1/odds)
32.4%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 303 | $-43.03 | -14.2% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 302 | $-52.63 | -17.4% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 301 | $-60.13 | -20.0% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 298 | $-77.83 | -26.1% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 60 | 31.7% | 4.17 | +$15.52 | +25.9% |
| 2026-04 | 145 | 25.5% | 3.69 | $-51.75 | -35.7% |
| 2026-05 | 98 | 37.8% | 3.99 | $-6.80 | -6.9% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 36 | 75.0% | +$11.20 | +31.1% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 90 | 36.7% | $-14.93 | -16.6% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 110 | 23.6% | $-13.50 | -12.3% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 52 | 11.5% | $-19.30 | -37.1% |
| 8.0-15 | 12 | 8.3% | $-3.50 | -29.2% |
| 15+ | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 12 | 50.0% | +$0.40 | +3.3% |
| Rank 2 | 12 | 16.7% | $-3.60 | -30.0% |
| Rank 3 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 31 of 303 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 6 | 0.0% | $-6.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 25 | 32.0% | $-4.20 | -16.8% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 303 | 30.7% | $-43.03 | -14.2% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| kalgoorlie | 12 | 75.0% | +$6.05 | +50.4% |
| belmont | 56 | 33.9% | +$2.21 | +3.9% |
| bunbury | 9 | 22.2% | +$1.80 | +20.0% |
| northam | 8 | 37.5% | $-1.50 | -18.8% |
| pinjarra scarpside | 16 | 18.8% | $-2.15 | -13.4% |
| pinjarra park | 12 | 25.0% | $-4.00 | -33.3% |
| albany | 37 | 29.7% | $-7.00 | -18.9% |
| ascot | 123 | 29.3% | $-19.15 | -15.6% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Mon | 8 | 25.0% | +$4.10 | +51.2% |
| Wed | 85 | 25.9% | $-20.99 | -24.7% |
| Thu | 41 | 29.3% | $-8.25 | -20.1% |
| Fri | 30 | 36.7% | $-2.89 | -9.6% |
| Sat | 102 | 34.3% | +$5.40 | +5.3% |
| Sun | 37 | 29.7% | $-20.40 | -55.1% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 75.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.82 (+20.5% ROI) on 4 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Jigsaw | 3.70 | +$9.60 |
| 2026-03-14 | ascot | Noble Connection | 8.50 | +$7.50 |
| 2026-04-27 | pinjarra scarpside | Godless Storm | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
| 2026-03-07 | bunbury | Bonjoy | 7.00 | +$6.20 |
| 2026-03-25 | belmont | Dixie Doo | 6.00 | +$5.00 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | True Player | 2.35 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | ascot | Maria Lucia | 3.70 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | geraldton | Archenemy | 3.30 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | Prince Epaulette | 3.20 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-19 | geraldton | Enticing | 5.00 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.