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Sky Racing - Russell Leonard
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Small sample (48 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 25.0% trails market-implied 41.0% by -16.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -55.3%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-11.8%) — trend is declining.
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-16.98
Implied Win % (1/odds)
41.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 48 | $-16.98 | -35.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 47 | $-21.38 | -45.5% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 46 | $-24.98 | -54.3% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 43 | $-30.92 | -71.9% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-03 | 15 | 26.7% | 3.27 | $-0.52 | -3.5% |
| 2026-04 | 13 | 23.1% | 3.50 | $-6.19 | -47.6% |
| 2026-05 | 20 | 25.0% | 2.98 | $-10.27 | -51.3% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 13 | 30.8% | $-7.44 | -57.2% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 18 | 27.8% | $-6.34 | -35.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 11 | 27.3% | +$2.80 | +25.5% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 4 | 0.0% | $-4.00 | -100.0% |
| 8.0-15 | 2 | 0.0% | $-2.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 7 | 42.9% | $-1.02 | -14.6% |
| Rank 2 | 1 | 0.0% | $-1.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 3 | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
Based on 11 of 48 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 3 | 0.0% | $-3.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 8 | 37.5% | $-2.02 | -25.2% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| sky_racing | 48 | 25.0% | $-16.98 | -35.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| rockhampton | 20 | 30.0% | $-4.63 | -23.1% |
| mackay | 28 | 21.4% | $-12.35 | -44.1% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 7 | 14.3% | $-4.48 | -64.0% |
| Thu | 19 | 26.3% | $-6.37 | -33.5% |
| Fri | 12 | 25.0% | $-5.19 | -43.2% |
| Sat | 10 | 30.0% | $-0.94 | -9.4% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.41 (+20.5% ROI) on 2 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-03-19 | mackay | Scrub Chain | 4.90 | +$4.40 |
| 2026-03-13 | rockhampton | Krackacan | 4.60 | +$3.60 |
| 2026-04-16 | mackay | Obligated | 3.80 | +$2.80 |
| 2026-05-20 | rockhampton | Thebarberofseville | 2.62 | +$1.62 |
| 2026-05-04 | rockhampton | Sport | 2.52 | +$1.52 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-16 | mackay | Four Leaf Wonder | 4.80 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-04-02 | mackay | Rum Rumble | 3.75 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-05-23 | mackay | Pride Of Venus | 2.50 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | rockhampton | Miss Mercy | 2.24 | $-1.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | rockhampton | Subsidise | 2.12 | $-1.00 |
Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.