Sky Racing - Russell Leonard

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.2% trails market-implied 37.3% by -11.1pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -12.8%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-52.6%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -24.5% — a more honest expectation than the raw -31.7%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -1.9% (-29.8% → -31.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.3% (-24.8% → -24.5%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

26.2%

Avg Odds

3.90

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-25.38

ROI

-31.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-24.5%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

37.3%

Calibration Gap

-11.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	80	$-25.38	-31.7%
Minus best 1 bet	79	$-31.38	-39.7%
Minus best 2 bets	78	$-35.58	-45.6%
Minus best 5 bets	75	$-44.28	-59.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-12.8%

Prior 60d ROI

-52.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-04	12	25.0%	3.48	$-5.19	-43.2%
2026-05	20	25.0%	2.98	$-10.27	-51.3%
2026-06	27	29.6%	4.49	$-6.27	-23.2%
2026-07	21	23.8%	4.28	$-3.65	-17.4%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	21	47.6%	$-6.00	-28.6%
2.0-3.0	20	25.0%	$-7.68	-38.4%
3.0-5.0	20	20.0%	$-4.90	-24.5%
5.0-8.0	10	20.0%	+$2.20	+22.0%
8.0-15	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	23	43.5%	$-1.68	-7.3%
Rank 2	12	8.3%	$-10.58	-88.2%
Rank 3	10	30.0%	+$3.00	+30.0%
Rank 4-5	8	12.5%	$-6.68	-83.5%
Rank 6+	6	16.7%	+$1.00	+16.7%

Based on 59 of 80 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	6	16.7%	$-0.80	-13.3%
Outside Zone	53	28.3%	$-14.14	-26.7%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sky_racing	80	26.2%	$-25.38	-31.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
rockhampton	41	31.7%	$-3.67	-9.0%
mackay	39	20.5%	$-21.71	-55.7%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	7	57.1%	+$0.22	+3.1%
Thu	32	21.9%	$-15.48	-48.4%
Fri	27	25.9%	$-8.56	-31.7%
Sat	14	21.4%	$-1.56	-11.1%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 7 settled, place rate 85.7%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.57 (+36.7% ROI) on 7 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-10	rockhampton	Certified Copy	7.00	+$6.00
2026-06-18	rockhampton	Jungle Rhythm	5.20	+$4.20
2026-06-10	mackay	Determination	4.40	+$3.40
2026-04-16	mackay	Obligated	3.80	+$2.80
2026-06-18	rockhampton	Next Legacy	3.50	+$2.50

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-01	mackay	Ravenite	4.00	$-1.00
2026-04-16	mackay	Four Leaf Wonder	4.80	$-1.00
2026-06-04	rockhampton	Pipistrelle	2.82	$-1.00
2026-05-23	mackay	Pride Of Venus	2.50	$-1.00
2026-06-04	rockhampton	Diante	4.60	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.