Daniel Cripps

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (28 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.9% beats market-implied 29.0% by +13.9pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 101% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -0.7% on 26 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +7.3% — a more honest expectation than the raw +43.6%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +20.8% (+22.9% → +43.6%) · Shrunk ROI: +5.1% (+2.2% → +7.3%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

42.9%

Avg Odds

4.58

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$12.22

ROI

+43.6%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+7.3%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

29.0%

Calibration Gap

+13.9pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	28	+$12.22	+43.6%
Minus best 1 bet	27	+$5.02	+18.6%
Minus best 2 bets	26	$-0.18	-0.7%
Minus best 5 bets	23	$-8.23	-35.8%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	7	42.9%	3.56	+$2.10	+30.0%
2026-07	21	42.9%	4.92	+$10.12	+48.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	3	100.0%	+$2.13	+71.0%
2.0-3.0	6	66.7%	+$3.64	+60.7%
3.0-5.0	11	27.3%	+$0.05	+0.5%
5.0-8.0	5	20.0%	+$1.20	+24.0%
8.0-15	2	50.0%	+$6.20	+310.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	9	44.4%	+$0.23	+2.6%
Rank 2	8	37.5%	+$8.62	+107.8%
Rank 4-5	6	33.3%	$-0.98	-16.3%

Based on 23 of 28 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	100.0%	+$12.40	+620.0%
Outside Zone	21	33.3%	$-4.53	-21.6%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	28	42.9%	+$12.22	+43.6%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	7	57.1%	+$12.40	+177.1%
pinjarra	8	25.0%	$-4.52	-56.5%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 2 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.95 (+97.6% ROI) on 2 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-04	belmont	12. Two Time Charlie	8.20	+$7.20
2026-07-01	belmont	3. Mind Field	6.20	+$5.20
2026-06-27		2. Charino	4.00	+$3.00
2026-07-16		8. Unwanted News	3.70	+$2.70
2026-06-25	northam	10. Shimonoseki	3.35	+$2.35

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-23	northam	3. Two Up Boom	2.62	$-1.00
2026-07-15	bunbury	4. Cosmo Ruler	3.50	$-1.00
2026-07-02	pinjarra	7. Buderim	8.20	$-1.00
2026-07-11		5. Repossession	5.60	$-1.00
2026-07-01	belmont	5. Elegant Ruler	7.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-08-29 05:11 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.