Daniel Cripps

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (19 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 47.4% beats market-implied 27.3% by +20.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 92% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of +6.3% on 17 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is +10.1% — a more honest expectation than the raw +70.9%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: +80.8% (-9.9% → +70.9%) · Shrunk ROI: +21.4% (-11.3% → +10.1%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → ROI MISLEADING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

47.4%

Avg Odds

5.11

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$13.47

ROI

+70.9%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

+10.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

27.3%

Calibration Gap

+20.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	19	+$13.47	+70.9%
Minus best 1 bet	18	+$6.27	+34.8%
Minus best 2 bets	17	+$1.07	+6.3%
Minus best 5 bets	14	$-6.06	-43.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	7	42.9%	3.56	+$2.10	+30.0%
2026-07	12	50.0%	6.01	+$11.37	+94.8%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	2	100.0%	+$1.48	+74.0%
2.0-3.0	3	100.0%	+$4.24	+141.3%
3.0-5.0	7	28.6%	+$0.35	+5.0%
5.0-8.0	4	25.0%	+$2.20	+55.0%
8.0-15	2	50.0%	+$6.20	+310.0%
15+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	5	60.0%	+$1.83	+36.6%
Rank 2	6	50.0%	+$10.62	+177.0%
Rank 4-5	5	40.0%	+$0.02	+0.4%

Based on 16 of 19 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	100.0%	+$12.40	+620.0%
Outside Zone	14	42.9%	+$0.07	+0.5%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	19	47.4%	+$13.47	+70.9%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
belmont	7	57.1%	+$12.40	+177.1%
pinjarra	5	40.0%	$-1.52	-30.4%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 1 settled, place rate 100.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$1.30 (+130.0% ROI) on 1 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-04	belmont	12. Two Time Charlie	8.20	+$7.20
2026-07-01	belmont	3. Mind Field	6.20	+$5.20
2026-06-27		2. Charino	4.00	+$3.00
2026-06-25	northam	10. Shimonoseki	3.35	+$2.35
2026-07-01	belmont	9. Ocean Reef	2.78	+$1.78

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-02	pinjarra	7. Buderim	8.20	$-1.00
2026-07-11		5. Repossession	5.60	$-1.00
2026-07-01	belmont	5. Elegant Ruler	7.40	$-1.00
2026-07-04		4. Supersession	7.20	$-1.00
2026-06-25	northam	2. Dirty Habits	3.95	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.