Daniel Cripps

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC

Verdict

ROI MISLEADING

Small sample (27 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is positive: actual win rate 37.0% beats market-implied 31.9% by +5.1pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds. 220% of total P/L comes from just the top 2 winning tips. Strip them out and you'd see an ROI of -15.7% on 25 bets — the headline number is being held up by a couple of lucky longshots. Recent 30d (ROI +37.1%) is materially better than the prior 60d (-24.1%) — trending up, but expect mean-reversion. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -4.2% — a more honest expectation than the raw +12.1%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -20.0% (+32.2% → +12.1%) · Shrunk ROI: -12.3% (+8.2% → -4.2%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

37.0%

Avg Odds

3.64

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

+$3.28

ROI

+12.1%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-4.2%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

31.9%

Calibration Gap

+5.1pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	27	+$3.28	+12.1%
Minus best 1 bet	26	$-0.82	-3.2%
Minus best 2 bets	25	$-3.92	-15.7%
Minus best 5 bets	22	$-10.92	-49.6%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

+37.1%

Prior 60d ROI

-24.1%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	6	33.3%	3.50	$-0.65	-10.8%
2026-09	13	30.8%	3.43	$-2.46	-18.9%
2026-10	8	50.0%	4.10	+$6.39	+79.9%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	4	75.0%	+$1.16	+29.0%
2.0-3.0	5	20.0%	$-2.08	-41.6%
3.0-5.0	14	35.7%	+$3.10	+22.1%
5.0-8.0	3	33.3%	+$2.10	+70.0%
8.0-15	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	11	27.3%	$-3.16	-28.7%
Rank 2	8	25.0%	+$1.20	+15.0%
Rank 3	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 4-5	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

Based on 22 of 27 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	2	50.0%	+$3.10	+155.0%
Outside Zone	20	20.0%	$-8.06	-40.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	27	37.0%	+$3.28	+12.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
bunbury	5	40.0%	+$1.99	+39.8%
belmont	6	50.0%	+$1.54	+25.7%
northam	6	33.3%	+$1.40	+23.3%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.86 (-31.0% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-10-07	bunbury	6. Scream	5.10	+$4.10
2026-10-04	northam	2. Firearm	4.10	+$3.10
2026-07-16		8. Unwanted News	3.70	+$2.70
2026-10-04	northam	11. Miss Profligacy	3.30	+$2.30
2026-09-02	belmont	10. Vampi Queen	3.00	+$2.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-23	northam	3. Two Up Boom	2.62	$-1.00
2026-10-04	northam	12. Special Blend	1.78	$-1.00
2026-09-09	belmont	2. Vienna Calling	4.00	$-1.00
2026-09-09	belmont	3. Yamashitas Gold	3.95	$-1.00
2026-10-07	bunbury	1. Tex N Cee	3.50	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-13 22:37 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.