Betfair Data Scientist

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is positive: actual win rate 42.2% beats market-implied 23.7% by +18.5pp — picks have measurable skill versus fair odds.

Since last weekly snapshot: +11 new bets · ROI: +1.1% (-11.8% → -10.7%) · Shrunk ROI: +0.9% (-11.9% → -11.0%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

367

Wins

155

Win Rate

42.2%

Avg Odds

7.11

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-39.38

ROI

-10.7%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-11.0%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

23.7%

Calibration Gap

+18.5pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	367	$-39.38	-10.7%
Minus best 1 bet	366	$-53.88	-14.7%
Minus best 2 bets	365	$-66.88	-18.3%
Minus best 5 bets	362	$-95.18	-26.3%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-8.6%

Prior 60d ROI

-11.6%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	77	41.6%	8.37	$-0.27	-0.4%
2026-08	159	38.4%	6.89	$-20.00	-12.6%
2026-09	97	47.4%	6.53	$-9.92	-10.2%
2026-10	34	47.1%	6.95	$-9.19	-27.0%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	27	40.7%	$-2.74	-10.1%
2.0-3.0	60	55.0%	$-5.10	-8.5%
3.0-5.0	96	58.3%	$-11.81	-12.3%
5.0-8.0	86	37.2%	+$4.42	+5.1%
8.0-15	69	26.1%	$-14.84	-21.5%
15+	29	17.2%	$-9.31	-32.1%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	137	56.2%	$-9.26	-6.8%
Rank 2	71	53.5%	$-0.05	-0.1%
Rank 3	49	36.7%	$-14.63	-29.9%
Rank 4-5	52	21.2%	$-3.53	-6.8%
Rank 6+	41	9.8%	$-11.35	-27.7%

Based on 353 of 367 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	86	45.3%	$-7.05	-8.2%
Outside Zone	267	40.8%	$-34.77	-13.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	367	42.2%	$-39.38	-10.7%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
ipswich	31	38.7%	+$10.89	+35.1%
townsville	5	40.0%	+$10.17	+203.4%
eagle farm	29	41.4%	+$8.48	+29.2%
ballarat	13	61.5%	+$8.37	+64.4%
rockhampton	13	46.2%	+$1.32	+10.2%
taree	6	66.7%	+$0.47	+7.8%
illawarra grange	9	44.4%	+$0.34	+3.8%
grafton	12	58.3%	$-0.01	-0.1%

Worst venues

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
cairns	8	25.0%	$-5.06	-63.3%
sunshine coast	7	14.3%	$-5.63	-80.4%
albury	7	0.0%	$-7.00	-100.0%
hawkesbury	9	11.1%	$-7.38	-82.0%
doomben	25	40.0%	$-10.69	-42.8%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 81 settled, place rate 63.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$9.54 (+11.8% ROI) on 81 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-24	ipswich	4. Coincide	15.50	+$14.50
2026-07-14	townsville	4. Mister Doobee	14.00	+$13.00
2026-08-27	ipswich	7. Constant Cafe	12.00	+$11.00
2026-09-23	eagle farm	4. Becamo	11.50	+$10.50
2026-08-27	seymour	3. Fierce Fiasco	7.80	+$6.80

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-08-05	doomben	9. Zalique	2.96	$-1.00
2026-08-15		6. Grinzinger Champ	1.99	$-1.00
2026-07-23	cairns	1. Bancory Bay	4.50	$-1.00
2026-08-20		5. Winsome Jumbo	3.50	$-1.00
2026-09-18	newcastle	5. Perfumist	5.40	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:12 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.