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Ben Asgari
Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC
Verdict
STRUCTURALLY LOSING
Calibration is negative: actual win rate 22.5% trails market-implied 28.0% by -5.5pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Recent 30d (ROI -34.3%) is materially worse than the prior 60d (-9.8%) — trend is declining.
Bio & context
Ben Asgari is a racing journalist and form analyst employed by Racing.com, based in Melbourne, Victoria. He has been publicly tipping since at least the early 2010s, having started his career writing for La Trobe University's Upstart website and Betfair before joining Racing.com. His methodology emphasizes data-driven form analysis with a particular focus on trainer/jockey statistics, sectional times, track conditions, and class benchmarks.
Melbourne, VictoriaRacing journalist and form analyst at Racing.com14 yrs
Methodology: Statistics-based form analysis incorporating trainer strike rates at specific tracks, jockey performance data, sectional times, track condition analysis, and class benchmarks. Uses tools like Punting Form for sectional analysis. Frequently references historical data and progressive galloper identification in his analysis.
Specialty: Victorian racing; data-driven form analysis with focus on trainer/jockey statistics and sectional analysis
Public footprint
- Twitter/X: @BenAsgariRacing (joined August 2010, 21.7K followers as of 2023)
- Racing.com journalist with regular written analysis
- Personal blog: benasgariracing.wordpress.com (historical, established 2012)
- Previously appeared on TVN's 'Get On' program
- Previous work: Betfair weekly articles, Radio Sport National (RSN) associate producer for Racing Ahead/Winners
- Featured on Lay Back with Betfair show (March 2024)
- Tips tracked on TheGreatTipOff platform
Industry connections
- VRC/MRC member (Victorian Racing Club/Melbourne Racing Club)
- No specific trainer or owner connections publicly documented
Source: anthropic_web_search · last researched 2026-06-01
Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -8.2% (-13.1% → -21.4%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.4% (-13.1% → -19.5%)
Charts
Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)
A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.
Monthly ROI %
Top 10 P/L outliers
ROI by odds bracket
Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds
Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.
ROI by day of week
At a glance
Total P/L ($1 stakes)
$-38.01
Bayesian-shrunk ROI
-19.5%
Implied Win % (1/odds)
28.0%
What's driving the ROI?
Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully,
a lucky record collapses.
| Subset | N | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Full record | 178 | $-38.01 | -21.4% |
| Minus best 1 bet | 177 | $-51.01 | -28.8% |
| Minus best 2 bets | 176 | $-61.01 | -34.7% |
| Minus best 5 bets | 173 | $-85.51 | -49.4% |
If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.
Recent trend
Monthly performance
| Month | N | Win % | Avg Odds | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| 2026-04 | 51 | 21.6% | 4.72 | $-18.31 | -35.9% |
| 2026-05 | 77 | 23.4% | 5.61 | $-7.90 | -10.3% |
| 2026-06 | 50 | 22.0% | 6.09 | $-11.80 | -23.6% |
By odds bracket
| Odds | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| <2.0 | 17 | 64.7% | +$0.56 | +3.3% |
| 2.0-3.0 | 39 | 30.8% | $-8.67 | -22.2% |
| 3.0-5.0 | 59 | 18.6% | $-18.40 | -31.2% |
| 5.0-8.0 | 26 | 7.7% | $-13.50 | -51.9% |
| 8.0-15 | 25 | 16.0% | +$14.00 | +56.0% |
| 15+ | 12 | 0.0% | $-12.00 | -100.0% |
By pre-race rank
| Pre-race Rank | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Rank 1 (fav) | 35 | 28.6% | $-13.70 | -39.1% |
| Rank 2 | 15 | 26.7% | $-0.50 | -3.3% |
| Rank 3 | 14 | 14.3% | $-5.60 | -40.0% |
| Rank 4-5 | 10 | 0.0% | $-10.00 | -100.0% |
| Rank 6+ | 10 | 10.0% | +$1.00 | +10.0% |
Based on 84 of 178 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).
Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)
| Subset | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5) | 9 | 0.0% | $-9.00 | -100.0% |
| Outside Zone | 75 | 22.7% | $-19.80 | -26.4% |
By source
| Source | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| racing_com | 178 | 22.5% | $-38.01 | -21.4% |
By venue
Top venues (by total P/L)
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| bet365 seymour | 16 | 37.5% | +$11.28 | +70.5% |
| moe | 20 | 35.0% | +$7.60 | +38.0% |
| ararat | 6 | 33.3% | +$5.70 | +95.0% |
| warrnambool | 13 | 15.4% | +$1.30 | +10.0% |
| sale | 14 | 35.7% | +$0.40 | +2.9% |
| southside pakenham | 9 | 44.4% | $-0.74 | -8.2% |
| caulfield | 9 | 33.3% | $-1.20 | -13.3% |
| ladbrokes geelong | 5 | 20.0% | $-1.30 | -26.0% |
Worst venues
| Venue | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| picklebet park werribee | 6 | 16.7% | $-2.40 | -40.0% |
| southside cranbourne | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.20 | -68.9% |
| mornington | 9 | 11.1% | $-6.40 | -71.1% |
| sportsbet sandown hillside | 18 | 5.6% | $-15.95 | -88.6% |
| flemington | 26 | 11.5% | $-23.70 | -91.2% |
By day of week
| Day | N | Win % | P/L | ROI |
|---|
| Tue | 5 | 20.0% | +$6.00 | +120.0% |
| Thu | 45 | 33.3% | +$2.51 | +5.6% |
| Fri | 14 | 21.4% | $-3.80 | -27.1% |
| Sat | 83 | 15.7% | $-45.30 | -54.6% |
| Sun | 31 | 25.8% | +$2.58 | +8.3% |
Place market
Live place-capture data: 9 settled, place rate 66.7%.
Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$2.21 (+24.6% ROI) on 9 bets.
Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.
Biggest wins
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-26 | bet365 seymour | Tarntanya | 14.00 | +$13.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | moe | French Romance | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | warrnambool | Ocean Beyond | 11.00 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-05-09 | ararat | Fashion Fighter | 9.00 | +$8.00 |
| 2026-05-17 | sale | Flying Mikki | 7.50 | +$6.50 |
Biggest losses
| Date | Venue | Selection | Odds | P/L |
| 2026-04-16 | southside pakenham | Corona Lad | 10.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-18 | mornington | Berlemont | 8.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Lovelycut | 9.00 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Zakouma | 2.35 | $-3.00 |
| 2026-04-25 | flemington | Seraphox | 3.70 | $-3.00 |
Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price.
ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.