Ben Asgari

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Calibration is negative: actual win rate 23.7% trails market-implied 28.7% by -5.0pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds.

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

207

Wins

Win Rate

23.7%

Avg Odds

5.18

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-27.06

ROI

-13.1%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

28.7%

Calibration Gap

-5.0pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	207	$-27.06	-13.1%
Minus best 1 bet	206	$-41.06	-19.9%
Minus best 2 bets	205	$-54.06	-26.4%
Minus best 5 bets	202	$-85.76	-42.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

Last 30d ROI

-10.3%

Prior 60d ROI

-14.7%

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-03	44	29.5%	4.71	+$10.47	+23.8%
2026-04	86	20.9%	5.04	$-29.63	-34.5%
2026-05	77	23.4%	5.61	$-7.90	-10.3%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	18	61.1%	$-2.39	-13.3%
2.0-3.0	54	29.6%	$-12.17	-22.5%
3.0-5.0	68	20.6%	$-10.00	-14.7%
5.0-8.0	31	9.7%	$-19.50	-62.9%
8.0-15	25	16.0%	+$13.00	+52.0%
15+	11	9.1%	+$4.00	+36.4%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	16	25.0%	$-7.00	-43.8%
Rank 2	7	14.3%	$-2.80	-40.0%
Rank 3	5	20.0%	$-1.20	-24.0%
Rank 4-5	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%

Based on 34 of 207 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	31	19.4%	$-14.00	-45.2%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
racing_com	207	23.7%	$-27.06	-13.1%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
sale	22	36.4%	+$13.92	+63.3%
bet365 seymour	8	25.0%	+$8.38	+104.7%
ararat	6	33.3%	+$5.70	+95.0%
bet365 terang	8	37.5%	+$3.40	+42.5%
warrnambool	13	15.4%	+$1.30	+10.0%
bendigo	8	25.0%	$-1.40	-17.5%
picklebet park wodonga	7	14.3%	$-2.00	-28.6%
picklebet park werribee	6	16.7%	$-2.40	-40.0%

Worst venues

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
mornington	9	11.1%	$-6.40	-71.1%
southside pakenham	16	31.2%	$-7.40	-46.2%
sportsbet sandown hillside	9	0.0%	$-9.00	-100.0%
caulfield	47	27.7%	$-11.11	-23.6%
flemington	35	17.1%	$-15.90	-45.4%

By day of week

Day	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Tue	5	20.0%	+$6.00	+120.0%
Thu	32	21.9%	$-17.50	-54.7%
Fri	14	21.4%	$-3.80	-27.1%
Sat	118	21.2%	$-37.46	-31.7%
Sun	38	34.2%	+$25.70	+67.6%

Place market

Live place-capture data: 4 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-0.36 (-8.9% ROI) on 4 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-04	caulfield	Merrigold	15.00	+$14.00
2026-04-26	bet365 seymour	Tarntanya	14.00	+$13.00
2026-04-04	caulfield	Extragalactic	4.40	+$11.10
2026-03-29	sale	She Daresthe Devil	4.80	+$10.60
2026-05-05	warrnambool	Ocean Beyond	11.00	+$10.00

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-04-16	southside pakenham	Corona Lad	10.00	$-3.00
2026-04-11	caulfield	Arabian Prince	4.80	$-3.00
2026-04-18	mornington	Berlemont	8.00	$-3.00
2026-04-25	flemington	Lovelycut	9.00	$-3.00
2026-04-04	caulfield	Pantile Warrior	2.50	$-3.00

Generated 2026-05-30 16:16 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.