Ryan Spice

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (22 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is roughly neutral: actual win rate 45.5% vs implied 47.3% (-1.8pp). Picks track market expectations.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -14.5% (-0.7% → -15.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -6.6% (-7.1% → -13.7%) · Verdict: BREAK-EVEN / MARGINAL → STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

45.5%

Avg Odds

2.93

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-3.35

ROI

-15.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-13.7%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

47.3%

Calibration Gap

-1.8pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	22	$-3.35	-15.2%
Minus best 1 bet	21	$-5.45	-26.0%
Minus best 2 bets	20	$-6.91	-34.6%
Minus best 5 bets	17	$-10.45	-61.5%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-06	6	66.7%	2.42	+$2.35	+39.2%
2026-07	16	37.5%	3.13	$-5.70	-35.6%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	8	50.0%	$-2.56	-32.0%
2.0-3.0	9	44.4%	+$0.00	+0.0%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	+$0.10	+3.3%
8.0-15	2	50.0%	$-0.89	-44.5%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	11	45.5%	$-1.70	-15.5%
Rank 2	5	40.0%	$-2.16	-43.2%
Rank 3	4	75.0%	+$2.51	+62.8%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 21 of 22 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	100.0%	+$0.11	+11.0%
Outside Zone	20	45.0%	$-2.46	-12.3%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	22	45.5%	$-3.35	-15.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albion park	20	50.0%	$-1.35	-6.8%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 10 settled, place rate 70.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: +$0.09 (+0.9% ROI) on 10 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-14	albion park	5. Serena Love	3.10	+$2.10
2026-06-30	albion park	4. Red Bull Bernie	2.46	+$1.46
2026-06-27	albion park	8. Showmethetanlines	2.30	+$1.30
2026-06-27	albion park	3. Cool And Classy	2.16	+$1.16
2026-07-07	albion park	9. Hes No Romeo	2.08	+$1.08

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11		9. Tilly Dunnage	1.88	$-1.00
2026-07-11	albion park	9. Always Be Chaps	4.70	$-1.00
2026-07-14	albion park	4. Luka Doncic	2.38	$-1.00
2026-07-07	albion park	1. Matt Dan	1.58	$-1.00
2026-07-11	albion park	8. The Janitor	1.19	$-1.00

Generated 2026-07-14 20:15 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.