Ryan Spice

Tipster dossier — settled-bet performance through 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC

Verdict

STRUCTURALLY LOSING

Small sample (15 bets) — anything below ~100 settled bets means CIs are wide enough to be near-useless. Calibration is negative: actual win rate 26.7% trails market-implied 42.2% by -15.6pp — picks have negative skill relative to fair odds. Bayesian-shrunk ROI (regressed toward -13% population baseline by sample size) is -21.6% — a more honest expectation than the raw -50.2%.

Since last weekly snapshot: ROI: -27.8% (-22.4% → -50.2%) · Shrunk ROI: -5.4% (-16.2% → -21.6%)

Charts

Cumulative P/L (theoretical $1 stakes)

A straight upward line = consistent profitability. Step-jumps = single fortunate bets carrying the curve.

Monthly ROI %

Top 10 P/L outliers

ROI by odds bracket

Calibration — actual vs implied win rate by odds

Blue bars under orange = picks lose to market expectations.

ROI by day of week

At a glance

Total Bets

Wins

Win Rate

26.7%

Avg Odds

3.55

Total P/L ($1 stakes)

$-7.53

ROI

-50.2%

Bayesian-shrunk ROI

-21.6%

Implied Win % (1/odds)

42.2%

Calibration Gap

-15.6pp

What's driving the ROI?

Strip away the top winning bets and see how the picture changes — a stable record degrades gracefully, a lucky record collapses.

Subset	N	P/L	ROI
Full record	15	$-7.53	-50.2%
Minus best 1 bet	14	$-9.63	-68.8%
Minus best 2 bets	13	$-10.16	-78.2%
Minus best 5 bets	10	$-10.00	-100.0%

If stripping the top 2 wins materially changes the ROI, the headline number is being held up by a couple of fortunate longshots — not stable skill.

Recent trend

(insufficient sample to compare recent vs prior)

Monthly performance

Month	N	Win %	Avg Odds	P/L	ROI
2026-07	15	26.7%	3.55	$-7.53	-50.2%

By odds bracket

Odds	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
<2.0	5	60.0%	$-0.63	-12.6%
2.0-3.0	5	0.0%	$-5.00	-100.0%
3.0-5.0	3	33.3%	+$0.10	+3.3%
8.0-15	2	0.0%	$-2.00	-100.0%

By pre-race rank

Pre-race Rank	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
Rank 1 (fav)	3	0.0%	$-3.00	-100.0%
Rank 2	5	40.0%	$-2.16	-43.2%
Rank 3	2	50.0%	+$1.10	+55.0%
Rank 4-5	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Rank 6+	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%

Based on 12 of 15 tips where pre-race rank was captured live (data started May 17, 2026).

Strategy Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)

Subset	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
In Zone (rank ≤ 3 AND odds ≥ 5)	1	0.0%	$-1.00	-100.0%
Outside Zone	11	27.3%	$-5.06	-46.0%

By source

Source	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
hub_playwright	15	26.7%	$-7.53	-50.2%

By venue

Top venues (by total P/L)

Venue	N	Win %	P/L	ROI
albion park	11	27.3%	$-5.06	-46.0%

By day of week

(no day-of-week data)

Place market

Live place-capture data: 6 settled, place rate 50.0%.

Hypothetical $1 place-bet P/L at captured Betfair BSP: $-1.75 (-29.2% ROI) on 6 bets.

Place data started May 17, 2026. Sample size small — treat directionally only.

Biggest wins

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-14	albion park	5. Serena Love	3.10	+$2.10
2026-07-18		1. Lux Aeterna	1.53	+$0.53
2026-07-11	albion park	2. Arcee Phoenix	1.47	+$0.47
2026-07-11	albion park	4. Nyack	1.37	+$0.37

Biggest losses

Date	Venue	Selection	Odds	P/L
2026-07-11		9. Tilly Dunnage	1.88	$-1.00
2026-07-11	albion park	9. Always Be Chaps	4.70	$-1.00
2026-07-18	albion park	8. Lovemeto	2.44	$-1.00
2026-07-14	albion park	4. Luka Doncic	2.38	$-1.00
2026-07-11	albion park	8. The Janitor	1.19	$-1.00

Generated 2026-10-08 22:07 UTC. Stats based on theoretical $1 BACK stakes settled on Betfair. Place data uses captured Betfair Starting Price. ROI = total P/L divided by total bets — high variance at small samples.